899
FXUS63 KDDC 190524
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1224 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much "cooler" today across the area; temperatures in the upper
  80s north and upper 90s south

- Marginal severe risk west of Route 83 today; isolated storms
  could lead to 50-60 mph winds and hail to quarter-size

- Hotter temperatures make a return

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

After quite the hot day yesterday, we are expected to be much
"cooler" across the forecast area. Max high temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 80s across northern counties,
with temperatures gradually increasing across southern Kansas
in the mid to upper 90s. While these temperatures are not cooler
by the actual definition of the word, it will certainly be a
noticeable difference than yesterday and previous weeks
temperatures. In addition to the cooler temperatures,
thunderstorms will be a possibility. Any storms are expected to
remain confined to areas west of Route 83, as they track out of
Colorado. With low-level lapse rates favorable and DCAPEs
1200-1500 J/kg, the main hazard would be strong winds on the
order of 50-60 mph. With meager MUCAPE about 1000 J/kg, hail
would likely be kept at bay, but a few 1" hailstones cannot be
ruled out. Any storms into western Kansas would likely be in the
evening hours, and eastern extent should be limited.

Hotter temperatures will be making a comeback to close out this week
and into this weekend/early next week. Forecast highs are again
likely to be around and exceeding the triple-digits mark. Latest
NBM output show 100s returning across western and southern
counties on Friday. Triple-digits look to become more widespread
into the weekend with NBM probabilities of 100+ 50-90% chance
along Route 50 and points south. Some probabilities exist
farther north as well, but are lower in the 20-40% range. The
oppressive heat (105-110) appear less likely this stretch, but
area of south-central Kansas do have some chance (30-50%) of
reaching those ranges again. Regarding any rainfall chances,
some low probabilities (20-40%) are in the forecast Thursday-
Friday near I-70, and then again each day Monday-Wednesday
evening mostly across the western half of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Flying conditions will be expected to be mainly VFR conditions
throughout the period. However, HYS may encounter storms later
this morning as storms work their way from northwest Kansas into
central Kansas. Timing of any storms is likely from about
08-14z. Storms are not expected to be overly impactful, but
could lower CIGs and bring locally stronger winds. The other
terminals should be too far south for storms to impact them.
Otherwise, in wake of a cold front that passed through this
evening will keep northerly and northeasterly winds 5-10 knots
through this morning and throughout the period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...Bennett