387
FXUS63 KDDC 071741
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1241 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat continues for Tuesday with heat advisory criteria (heat index
values 105 and greater) for areas along and east of highway 183

- Thunderstorms followed by cooler air for the mid week

- A stronger cold front in the long term with the effects being
  felt more into next Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

17Z synopsis shows a large ridge across much of the central and
eastern CONUS with a digging trough prog across the northwest parts
of the nation.  A developing shortwave is located along the front
range of the Rockies and a deepening 1001 mb surface low is located
in northeast Colorado.  This has led to a tightening pressure
gradient and south to southwest winds at 20-30 mph.  These winds
along with sunshine have helped to warm much of southwest Kansas
into the low and mid 90s around the noon hour.

Tonight the shortwave in Colorado along with CAPE values around 1500
J/kg will combine with a weak frontal boundary and surface low to
produce a line of broken storms roughly from east of Pueblo through
northwest Kansas.  Given the steering flow aloft will be parallel to
the frontal boundary the eastward propagation of storms will be very
slow through the evening hours and an opportunity for storms looks
to be limited to our far northwest zones around Hamilton county. The
rest of southwest Kansas should stay dry tonight.

Tuesday the slow progression east with the 700 mb shortwave should
bring the weak frontal boundary closer to an Elkhart to Hays line by
late afternoon.  With southwest winds ahead of the front, sunshine,
and good mixing in the low levels we should see temperatures jump
back up into the low 100s and enough lower level moisture that heat
index values could touch around 105 for areas along and east of
highway 183.  Due to this a heat advisory is in effect tomorrow
afternoon and the heat risk is in the major to extreme category.  In
the late afternoon the daytime heating and upper level lift should
help to form thunderstorms along the weak frontal boundary starting
near the I-70 corridor in the late afternoon and expanding south and
west through the early evening.  The storms that develop will have
DCAPE values over 1200 J/kg and modest bulk shear values (20-25 kts)
which means the main risk will be gusty downburst winds and smaller
hail.  With little eastward winds aloft the storms should stay
fairly close to the frontal boundary all evening and night long
which would bring the best opportunity for rain generally along and
north of a Hays to Elkhart line.  Towards Wednesday morning with
more cold pooling this should push the front eastward along with the
storm threat and the rest of southwest Kansas should see better
opportunities for rain during the day on Wednesday.  With cooler air
advecting in along with more rain and clouds temperatures should
reach into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Long term ensembles continue with a large trough digging out of
northwest Canada into the northern plains this weekend with a
stronger cold front making it into the central plains.  Newest
thoughts are it will be a couple of troughs with one coming in on
Saturday and a stronger one on Monday.  Hence high temperatures have
warmed a bit on Sunday into the lower to mid 90s and the 80 degree
temperatures have been delayed until Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals during this time period.
Winds will stay breezy through the afternoon and evening with
sustained speeds at 15-20 kts and gusts around 30 kts. Winds
will back off a bit during the night and then pick back up
around 15Z to 15-20 kts sustained with higher gusts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ031-046-065-
066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro