825
FXUS63 KDDC 210458
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early morning thunderstorms tapering off by late morning.

- Temperatures will be near or slightly below the seasonal
  normal for this time of year through most of the upcoming work
  week (Highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s).

- Improving chances for accumulating rainfall will be possible
  mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Earlier this evening an upper low that was located over
Wyoming. An upper level jet was positioned near the base of this
upper level low with scattered convection occurring at this
time near the nose of this upper jet as it moves east into
northeast Kansas. At the surface a stationary front extended
from eastern Colorado into the Panhandle of Texas. Just north of
this boundary a moist upslope flow was present which was aiding
in ongoing nighttime convection as enhanced upper level lift
develops during the overnight hours as the right entrance region
of the upper level jet moves across western Kansas. Overnight
scattered elevated thunderstorms are forecast to move southeast
along the mid level baroclinic zone (700fgen) with improving
warm air advection and 850-700mb moisture transport occurring.
As a result the thunderstorms that do move into southwest Kansas
later tonight initially appears to have the potential for hail
near the Colorado border, but these storms are expected to
weaken as they cross southwest Kansas. Isolated gusty winds
along with locally heavy rainfall still will be possible from a
few of the stronger storms late tonight. CAMS appear in
reasonably good agreement with these storms crossing southwest
Kansas between 08z and 16z.


Early morning convection over southwest Kansas will taper
off/move south of the area by late morning allowing skies to
clear late day. The upper low that was located over Wyoming
earlier this evening will now be moving across Nebraska during
the day on Monday. Given the clearing skies and forecast
925-850mb temperatures late day it appears that afternoon highs
will again range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. On Monday
however the cooler temperatures (mid 70s) will be focused near
the Colorado border/extreme southwest Kansas given upslope flow,
moisture and linger convection will be present longer in the
day than further east.

Ensembles this morning remain in good agreement and consistent
with previous runs in keeping this cooler air mass which will be
located over southwest Kansas on Monday around through at least
mid week as a cool surface ridge axis builds across the Central
Plains and an upper level ridge starts to move into western
Kansas from the west. Upper ridge building across western Kansas
early in the week will also limit convection chances to areas
near and north of the surface boundary which will be located
across eastern Colorado and the Panhandle of Oklahoma/Texas.
This would include far western Kansas/extreme southwest Kansas.

The chance for measurable precipitation will however improve
mid week as this upper ridge moves east of the area allowing a
southwesterly flow aloft to return as our next, more
significant, upper low/trough begins to approach the Central
Rockies. Several opportunities for widespread accumulating
rainfall currently is starting to appear more and more likely
for much of western Kansas starting late Wednesday and
continuing through the end of the work week as our next upper
level system weakens as it moves across the Rockies and out into
the plains. IVT has for the past several runs indicated decent
moisture return to southwest Kansas Wednesday and Thursday as
southerly winds return on the eastern edge of the upper ridge.
The latest ensembles all seem to be suggesting PWAT values
greater than the 95th percentile west of highway 283 from late
Wednesday through early Friday. This is something that will need
to be monitored closely over the next several days because
given this environment and possible multiple days of storms
moving over/near the same areas this could result in some decent
rainfall totals in some locations and possible even some water
issues late week if these models verify. The latest NBM 48hour
probability for rainfall totals to exceed 3/4 inches ending at
7am Friday ranges from 60-80% with the highest rainfall totals
occurring west/southwest of Dodge City. This is up from a 50-70%
chance of this occurring just 12 hours earlier. Most notable
item of interest from the past few runs is that the higher
chances remain unchanged. Also noticing that the EFI and Sot has
also increased over the last 12hour and was starting to
highlight our extreme western counties. Will be interesting to
see how persistent these signals will be over few runs.
Currently HPC during this period only has a Marginal risk for
our west/southwest but slight risk is as close as the panhandle
of Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Latest observations indicating the latest ceiling forecast from
the models/guidance are on track early tonight and given the
moist northeast/easterly upslope flow at 10 to 15 knots see no
reason to disagree with ceilings lowering into the 500ft to
around 1000ft AGL level between 07 and 10z Monday Garden City,
Liberal and Dodge City. These low ceilings will also occur at
Hays but a little later (towards 12z Monday). These low ceilings
will linger across southwest Kansas through 15z with ceilings
then improving with VFR conditions developing by 18z Monday.
Along with these low clouds there will be a chance for
thunderstorms to occur overnight. These storms will most likely
occur in the Garden City and Hays area between 07z and 10z and
then Dodge City and Liberal between 10z and 15z Monday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert