197
FXUS63 KDDC 030509
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1109 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very windy conditions late tonight and Tuesday with wind gusts
  of 45 to 55 mph possible through at least noon Tuesday.

- Temperatures falling back into the 30 to 35 degree range
  early Wednesday morning west and north of the Dodge City area.

- Seasonal Temperatures late week with a 40-70% chance for
  light rain Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Earlier this evening an upper level trough was located over
western Kansas. Under this upper level trough a strong cold
front was crossing southwest Kansas with surface observations
already reporting wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph reported behind
this front at of 04z. This cold front will continue to cross all
of southwest Kansas by early Tuesday morning as this upper
level trough moves slowly east/northeast across Kansas. The
strong gusty winds behind this front will continue through
Tuesday and usher in some colder air into the area which will
result in afternoon temperatures Tuesday afternoon being around
15 degrees cooler compared to the highs that occurred across
southwest Kansas on earlier today (Monday). Given these
temperatures and strong gusty winds expected through the day it
will feel colder than this Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon wind
chills in the 40s/lower 50s will be possible for many locations
west or north of Dodge City. The ongoing convection across
portions of southwest Kansas early this morning from the wrap
around moisture and enhanced lift near the 500mb deformation
zone just W/NW of the upper trough will taper off from southwest
to northeast by noon.

Very windy conditions late tonight and Tuesday with wind gusts
of 45 to 55 mph possible through at least noon Tuesday. An upper
level trough crossing western Kansas will deepen a surface low
over Central Kansas overnight and early Tuesday. This will
result in tight surface pressure gradient over southwest Kansas.
This combined with forecast 850mb north northwest winds of 45
to 50 knots indicated the potential for wind gusts to be
stronger than what the latest NBM guidance suggest, at least
through 18z Tuesday. BUFR soundings momentum transfer and even
the REFS 10m wind gusts both are in agreement with the potential
stronger winds/wind gusts. Based on this combined with the 04z
surface observations behind this cold front it appears the
stronger winds will be more reasonable. Have therefore favored
the stronger 75th percentile of the NBM for winds over the next
24-36 hours.

Temperatures falling back into the 30 to 35 degree range early
Wednesday morning west and north of the Dodge City area. Early
Tuesday night the gusty northwest winds which ushered in the
cold air into southwest Kansas Monday night and Tuesday will
decrease to less than 10 mph as the surface pressure gradient
weakens across southwest Kansas. Clear skies and light winds
Tuesday night will create a favorable environment for
temperatures to easily fall back well into the 30s by early
Wednesday morning with frost or even a few locations waking up
to temperatures around 32, mainly west and north of the Dodge
City area.

Seasonal Temperatures late week with a 40-70% chance for light
rain Wednesday night. As our Monday storm system moves east of
the area Tuesday and progressive, weaker, upper level trough
will take aim on western Kansas mid week. Ensembles were in good
agreement with weak forcing and limited moisture will be
present ahead of this next system as the upper wave quickly
crossing western Kansas Wednesday night. As a result the
ensemble clusters have only a 20-40% chance for 24 hour
rainfall totals ending at 6pm Thursday to be greater than 0.25
inches. A surface boundary/weak cold front will briefly move
into southwest Kansas following this upper trough but then
quickly lift back north. This will keep temperatures in the
50s/lower 60s Wednesday and Thursday and then warm back into the
mid 60s by Friday/Saturday as an upper level ridge exits the
Rockies and moves out into the plains. These temperatures late
week are near the seasonal normals for this time of year.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Surface observations across southwest Kansas at 04z behind a
cold front continues to indicate northwest winds at 25 to 30
knots with wind gusts of 40 to near 45 knots. These very windy
conditions will continue overnight and early Tuesday. Latest
guidance and short term models then suggest that these winds
will gradually subside during the afternoon with wind speeds
falling back into the 10 to 15 knot range around or shortly
after sunset. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
overnight and then begin to taper off from southwest to east
early Tuesday as an upper level trough moves from western Kansas
into central Kansas. As the rain tapers off the low ceilings
(mainly below 1500ft AGL) will gradually improve into the VFR
category after 18z Tuesday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert