688
FXUS63 KDDC 141904
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
204 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal severe weather outlook is in place for low
  probability (10-30%) chances of convection overnight.

- Widespread Moderate level (2 of 4) heat risk is expected
  Tuesday and again Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Extensive residual cloud cover is noted across most of the DDC
area this morning; remnants of an MCS that brought ample
rainfall amount locally up to 4 and 5 inches over parts of Ness
county overnight. These clouds will no doubt impact the
stability profiles for sections of the forecast area Today,
mostly in the east as the western counties say west of highway
23, will have more hours of insolation for destabilization.

The HRRR model surface temperatures are most reflective of
this, limiting temperatures this afternoon to the upper 70s
across roughly the NE 1/3 to  of the area in a light moist
boundary layer easterly flow. The trend is also several degrees
cooler as far west as Johnson and Liberal where temps tops out
in the upper 80s. Notable the HRRR is the only model that does
not bring convection into the forecast area at some point over
the next 18 hours. All of the other HREF member CAMs develop
clusters of storms over eastern Colorado surface tough where
steep low and mid level lapse rates and upwards of 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE will drive convection east south east from the front
range. The HRRR allows that convection to dissipate before
entering western Kansas. Members that allow the convection to
drift clear though the DDC area are typically over-predicting.
If we buy in to this HRRR solution, then weakening, very
isolated storms/remnant showers might be entering Kansas around
4 am.

For the balance of the week, marginal severe thunderstorm risk
again will cover the DDC area through the balance pf the
weekend, again for late day storms that develop over the eastern
Colorado surface trough and expand eastward in the late night
on steep mid level lapse rates into the high plains of Kansas.
The weekend will also mark an increase in the overall heart
risk, as warmer temperatures push it into moderate (level 2 of
4) Sunday and Monday A slight respite is anticipated Wednesday
before the Moderate heat risk returns for the balance of the
work week. This level of heat affects people most sensitive to
heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

In the very near term, note the convective SIGMET until about
19z fore areas east of KDDC. Will also include a VCSH in the HYS
TAF as that are of precipitation is waning. Any convective
chances beyond this appear becoming more and more isolated given
the HRRR trends into Tonight, and even though a Marginal severe
risk is in place coverage is expected not to begin until at
least about 4 am Sunday, and decaying storms are more likely to
be the rule. Meanwhile mid level clouds left over from last
nights convection will linger with a few showers at times

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Locally significant rainfall amounts have had a limited effect
on area rivers however notable the Hackberry creek near Trego
Center jumped a couple of feet which routes to the Smoky Hill
and eventually Cedar Bluff res. Similar locally jumps along the
Pawnee River are well below any hydrological action levels.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...MR
HYDROLOGY...Russell