823
FXUS63 KDDC 150857
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
357 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather risk exists Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons
  before a dry stretch

- A hot week ahead; a moderate heat risk is present this week
  other than a relatively cooler Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Current RAP mesoanalysis has a surface low pressure system extending
from over the Rockies and a weak grouping of surface highs east of
Kansas. The low over the Rockies have little upper-level support
with a subtle ridge aloft. The low pressure system has helped
provide a lifting mechanism for a cluster of storms to develop in
eastern Colorado and move into Kansas. Along with the storms, low
cloud cover has crept into much of the far SW portion of the state.

On Sunday once the could cover clears out, temperatures will quickly
warm with highs forecast in the upper 80s/lower 90s. The notable
aspect of the forecast quickly becomes the very large uncertainty of
thunderstorm development. As with the last few nights, the different
CAMs have wildly different solutions on if/where thunderstorms may
develop. Southeast winds during the day will continue to transport
ample moisture. NAMNST forecast soundings suggest that storms that
develop will be high-based and steep lapse rates will again
contribute to strong winds being the largest severe threat. Again
uncertainty is too great for specifics, but storms will likely form
to the northwest and move to the southeast.

Monday is expected to be hot and lead off a week with multiple
opportunities in the 90s. Ensembles have the western few counties at
a 50% chance to reach triple digit high temperatures. Ensembles have
a shortwave trough ejecting through the great plains on Monday. CAMs
have thunderstorms initiating near the CO/KS border. NAMNST forecast
soundings have sufficient CAPE and shear at >5000 J/kg and >40 KTs
respectively. Initially SRH values will be too minimal for a tornado
threat, but if any strong supercells can make it long enough into
the night the strengthening LLJ will make tornadic supercells
possible through the overnight.

Tuesday will be more of the same. Hot temperatures, especially near
the border where highs are forecast near or over 100 degrees. During
the late afternoon, a cold front from the aforementioned low
pressure system is expected to provide enough convergence will
interact with the still moist air and is expected to initiate
thunderstorms. Severe storm development is possible in the late
evening, but uncertainty is too great to try and forecast specifics.
With the cold front, a sharp wind shift is expected. This will
finally slow the constant stream of moist advection that fueled
storms the last few nights. The now north wind will cool Wednesday
enough with CAA to be the only day of the week with highs forecast
cooler than 90 degrees.

The rest of the week, ensembles have temperatures back up into the
90s. The heat is the most notable aspect of the forecast period from
Wednesday through the end of the week. Highs on Friday are expected
to the hottest with ensembles providing a >40% chance for 100 degree
weather for the whole area. While anyone can suffer from heat
related illness, those who are especially vulnerable should take
precautions. Everyone out in the heat should take plenty of cooling
breaks and stay hydrated.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to dominate through the TAF period. With
plenty of moisture advection and a weak surface level low pressure
system, storms are possible during the overnight. Ensembles keep
chances of <3 kft ceilings below 50%, it is very possible any
terminal may see a period of lowered flight conditions. While the
location holds a great deal of uncertainty, recent model runs have
had some continuity in a cluster of storms forming in far western
Kansas and diving southward. VCTS is added to GCK and LBL to account
for these storms if they materialize in this way. Ensembles chances
for storms are too low (<15%) for DDC or HYS for inclusion of the
TAFs. GCK and LBL have around a 25% to see thunderstorms, but the
uncertainty is too great to pin down an exact time or location of
the storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Locally significant rainfall amounts have had a limited effect
on area rivers however notable the Hackberry creek near Trego
Center jumped a couple of feet which routes to the Smoky Hill
and eventually Cedar Bluff res. Similar locally jumps along the
Pawnee River are well below any hydrological action levels.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
HYDROLOGY...Russell