553
FXUS63 KDDC 301047
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
547 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms (40-60% chance) again today.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures likely this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

WV imagery indicates extremely weak ridging aloft situated across
the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak area of low
pressure is edging east through northwest Kansas with an attendant
frontal boundary extending south-southwest into extreme southeast
Colorado.

Thunderstorm chances (40-60%) continue today into tonight as the
SREF indicates a weak upper level shortwave trough transitioning
east through the high plains of eastern Colorado into southwest
Nebraska/western Kansas early in the period. Ahead of the
approaching shortwave, a prevailing southeasterly upslope flow will
continue to reinforce a moist air mass across the region with
surface dewpoints holding well up into the 60s(F), providing modest
instability with MLCAPE values upward of only 1000 J/kg as lingering
cloud cover hinders daytime heating. Meanwhile, surface low pressure
in northwest Kansas will push farther east with an attendant frontal
boundary slowly sweeping through southwest Kansas into central Kansas
this afternoon into the evening. As a result, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to redevelop later today as a series of H5 vort maxima
ahead of an approaching +70kt jet core kick through western Kansas,
interacting with the aforementioned weak frontal boundary. The best
chance for storms will be across central Kansas where the HREF paints
a 30-50% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch by late
afternoon with that probability shifting southeast into south central
Kansas by late evening. Drier conditions are forecast Sunday as the
upper level shortwave pushes farther east.

Temperatures are forecast to remain below the seasonal average today
as increased cloud cover and lingering/redeveloping showers and
thunderstorms hinder climbing highs this afternoon while H85
temperatures hover in the mid/upper teens(C). With the HREF
indicating a 70-80% probability of temperatures exceeding 70F in
central Kansas to a 80-90% probability of topping 75F in extreme
southwest Kansas, look for widespread afternoon highs generally
in the 70s(F) with near 80F possible out near the Colorado line.
Although little change to the general air mass is expected Sunday
under the influence of weak north-northeasterlies, decreased cloud
cover may allow a slight bump up in temperatures with highs in the
mid/upper 70s(F) in central Kansas to the lower 80s(F) in extreme
southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Low ceilings at LBL and DDC currently are resulting in lower flight
conditions. Showers/storms are attempting to redevelop across SW
Kansas as anticipated. If they continue to develop, they could
impact the northern three terminals with the impacts noted in the
TEMPO groups. Some modest uncertainty remains on where and how
intense this development could get. Otherwise the lower cloud cover
will erode west to east and bring reprieve to the lowered flight
conditions by around the midpoint of the TAF period. Light
southwesterly winds will weaken to light and variable during the
period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...KBJ