948
FXUS63 KDDC 250430
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1130 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light to moderate rain showers currently west of US-83 will
  make slow eastward progress today, reaching near US-283.

- Precipitation will wind down Sunday night into Monday morning
  from the main trough, however another weaker disturbance may
  reignite showers for our eastern zones Monday afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures and only dubious precipitation
  chances are expected Tuesday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

KDDC radar observations late Saturday evening show scattered light
to moderate rain showers are spread across our western zones,
courtesy of a strong upper level trough located near the Four
Corners region as per latest water vapor satellite imagery. Short
range high resolution guidance suggests this activity will continue
through the remainder of the overnight period, making little to no
eastward progress as the synoptic forcing remains largely
stationary. Daytime Sunday, a rich mid-level moisture plume on the
eastern periphery of the upper low approaching the central Rockies
will support persistent rain showers that will make at least some
eastward headway, reaching near US-283 by sunset. Nearly moist
adiabatic lapse rates will preclude sufficient instability for any
severe threat, and even thunder will be sparse, if existent at all.
Precipitation is progged to continue into the overnight period, but
will gradually taper off through the night as the trough begins to
eject onto the central plains. Monday morning lows will range from
the upper 40s/low 50s west to the upper 50s east.

Daytime Monday, some scattered to isolated rain showers may linger
into the morning, however these should dissipate by early afternoon
as DNVA in the wake of the ejecting upper wave overspreads southwest
KS. Precipitation totals for this event are expected to be in the 1-
1.5" range along and west of US-83, the 0.25-1" range between US-83
and US-183, and just a few hundredths to a perhaps a tenth east of
US-183. Through the remainder of Monday, mostly cloudy skies and
downsloping south-southwest winds will result in afternoon highs in
the low 70s. Short range ensembles also hint at another vorticity
max moving northeastward from the southern plains towards our area,
which may spark some isolated showers/thunderstorms across our
eastern zones. NBM paints some chance (25-54%) to likely (55-74%)
pops in response that persist into the overnight period.

Tuesday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles
suggest southwesterly mid-level flow across the central Rockies will
be maintained, fostering unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures
each day with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Some precipitation
chances will exist near the end of the forecast period, but these
are highly uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR flying conditions were observed across all terminals at the
beginning of this TAF cycle, with light northerly winds. Light to
moderate rain showers currently west of US-83 will gradually move
east today, bringing some MVFR/IFR cigs and vis to all terminals.
Otherwise, winds will flip to southerly after sunrise, and increase
into the 12-16 kt range gusting to 26 kts through sunset before
weakening down to 10-12 kts through the end of the period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Springer