883
FXUS63 KDDC 272014
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
314 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms west of a
  Garden City to Meade line between 4pm and sunset. Wind gusts
  of 40 to 60 mph and Large hail will be the main hazards
  through sunset.

- Widespread accumulating rainfall will be likely after sunset
  tonight. Locally heavy rainfall from this event may result in
  isolated ponding of water on roadways and poor drainage areas
  north of a Garden City to Larned line.

- Fall like temperatures (Highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s)
  expected late week and over the weekend across southwest
  Kansas.

- Multiple rounds of wet weather will be possible across
  southwest Kansas the upcoming Labor Day Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Water vapor and upper air analysis early today showed an upper
level trough located over northern Kansas. At the 700 mb mb
level a north northwest to south southeast oriented 700mb
temperature gradient was present from northeast Colorado into
south central Kansas with a wedge of high moisture/PWATS located
along and east of the temperature gradient. We are also seeing
850mb warm air advection improving north and east of the 10C
isotherm. At the surface, a boundary was located over eastern
Colorado with an area of low pressure developing along this
boundary ahead of the approaching upper level system.

The surface boundary mentioned above will be our first area of
interest late today for scattered convection, given improving
low level moisture and 0-1km frontogenesis along this boundary
and afternoon instability developing due to clearing skies.
Latest models now show 25 to 30 knots of shear and MUCAPE >2500
j/kg by late day in this area. Based on this any thunderstorms
that do develop will be capable of producing large hail and
gusty winds. The Storm Prediction Center also appears to be
observing the same potential and, as a result, has placed a
marginal risk for severe weather west of highway 83 for early
tonight (before sunset).

The better chance for thunderstorms early tonight will arrive
after sunset as an upper level trough, currently over northern
Colorado, moves through our 500mb ridge and out into the west
central high plains. Short term models agree on this upper wave
exiting the Rockies late today, with a cluster of thunderstorms
developing ahead of this wave as it moves along a mid level
baroclinic zone into western Kansas after 10pm. Also after
sunset an area of thunderstorms will develop across portions of
southwest and north central Kansas where warm air advection
will be developing as a low level jet develops. The area most
favorable for these developing storms early tonight appears to
be on the northern edge of the mid level warm layer, which the
latest CAMS have mainly north of K96.

The main hazards from thunderstorms after sunset will mainly be
locally heavy rainfall, with PWATs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches. Latest
SREF 12 hour Max rainfall totals ending at 12z Thursday show
this area ranging from 1.75 to 2.5 inches, which may not be out
of the question near the I-70 corridor, given two opportunities
for heavy rainfall in this area. Given that these higher
rainfall totals will occur from two events, and given the latest
flash flood guidance north of a Scott City to Larned line being
1.5 to 2 inches for 1 hour and 2 to 2.5 for 3hrs...a Flood
Watch will not be issued for these locations. However, later
shifts may need to monitor the potential for minor water issues
in poor drainage and low lying areas. Isolated wind gusts of 50
mph or higher also can not be ruled out.

Looking ahead to late this week and over the upcoming Labor Day
Weekend...a reinforcement of cooler air will return to western
Kansas overnight as a northern branch upper level trough
approaches the central plains. Models are in good agreement with
the 850mb temperatures falling back to around 15C by 00z Friday,
which for southwest Kansas is approximately 5 to 9C below the
climatology for this time of the year. These unseasonably cool
temperatures will then continue through the upcoming Labor Day
weekend as due to another upper level trough exits Canada and
moves across the northern plains.

In addition to these unseasonably cool temperatures, there will
also be a chance of thunderstorms almost every evening this
upcoming weekend. Multiple upper waves embedded in a northwest
flow will be moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains. We
will also be monitoring the chance for strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday from any storms that
develop over eastern Colorado and move into far western Kansas.
This is based on the ensemble probability (20-40%) of shear
being greater than 30 knots and CAPE values greater than 1000
j/kg. These storms currently appear to weaken as they move
across southwest Kansas after sunset, so the better chance for
these stronger storms will be west of Highway 83.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

IFR conditions in the Hays area will slowly improve into the
MVFR conditions after 00Z Thursday. Elsewhere low ceilings
between 1500 and 3000 feet AGL will give way to VFR conditions
through 21Z today. These improving conditions late today and
early tonight will quickly deteriorate as thunderstorm chances
increase across southwest Kansas after 02Z Thursday. A cluster
of thunderstorms is expected to cross western Kansas between 03z
and 12z Thursday and as these storms pass ceilings will fall
below 500 feet AGL and southerly winds will shift to the north.
Areas of fog cannot be ruled out late tonight and early Thursday
morning. The HREF and LAMP models suggest a 40 to 60 percent
chance for visibilities to fall below 2 miles at times between
09Z and 15Z Sunday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert