898
FXUS63 KDDC 032342
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
542 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably mild temperatures will continue through
  Wednesday, with both sunrise and afternoon temperatures well
  above early January normals. Some record highs, and record
  warm lows, are expected.

- The long dry stretch will continue, with southwest Kansas
  remaining dry through Thursday.

- A strong cold front is expected around Friday, providing much
  colder air, strong northwest winds, and perhaps some light
  rain and snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Another unseasonably pleasant January day was in progress at
midday, with stratus east of SW KS, and scattered cirrus
arriving from the west. As has been the case for much of the
past several weeks, temperatures will again surpass much of the
model guidance this afternoon, with many locations warming into
the lower 60s. For some climatology perspective, this is the
coldest time of year on average. The normal high at DDC for
January 3 is 44, and it begins climbing to 45 on January 4.

Increasing cirrus and south winds are expected tonight, with
warm advection through the lower troposphere and a strong low
level jet expected after midnight. The boundary layer is
expected to remain partially mixed through sunrise, allowing
south winds to increase with time through sunrise. This mixing,
and thick cirrus slowing radiational cooling, will keep
temperatures very mild tonight and near record warm levels.
The warmest low temperature at DDC for January 4 is 38 (1916,
1946), and it will be very difficult to cool below that number.
12z MOS guidance suggests many locations will remain in the
lower 40s through sunrise, remarkable for early January and
about 20 degrees above normal.

Models show further warming on Sunday, with a net increase of
about +5C at 850 mb. Elevated south winds in the morning will
veer SWly through the day, remaining elevated through midday,
then diminishing during the afternoon. The added SWly downslope
component, and the expectation of thinning cirrus, supports
going above guidance several degrees again Sunday, with many
locations reaching the lower 70s. The forecast high of 71
at DDC is near the record high of 73/1916,1956.

Weak leeside cyclogenesis over SE Colorado Sunday afternoon will
drift eastward over SW KS through Monday, delivering a weak
pressure gradient and another unseasonably pleasant January day.
Models show no cooling over Sunday, so again NBM temperatures
are well above MOS guidance, with many locations near 70 once
again at 3 pm. A very weak dry cold front is scheduled to arrive
about Tuesday morning, but cold air advection is modeled to be
minimal, with only about 5 degrees of cooling. Still expecting
lower to mid 60s Tuesday.

The next longwave trough is forecast by the ensembles to be on
the West Coast Wednesday, with a cutoff cyclone in the southern
jet stream over Baja California. Both of these will move
eastward through Thursday, and midlevel flow will become SWly
in response. A gradual cooling is expected Wednesday through
Thursday as heights lower, but still well above January normals,
as shown by NBM guidance. SW KS will remain dry through
Thursday, with rain from the southern stream cyclone remaining
south, and snow with the northern stream trough remaining west.
Medium range global models are in good agreement regarding the
northern stream trough amplifying some, and reaching SW KS about
Friday morning. High confidence the associated cold front will
bring strong northwest winds and much colder air Friday, and
NBM`s temperature drop...all the way down to "normal"...appears
correct and matches 12z MEX guidance. Friday will feel quite
unpleasant, in the lower 40s, and winds will be stronger than
NBM guidance.

Regarding precipitation with this trough and cold front Friday,
significant/meaningful amounts are not expected. Open
progressive troughs, such as the one expected Friday, struggle
to produce rain/snow in SW KS during the winter. Moisture will
be limited, and residency time of dynamics will be short. NBM
slight chance category pops for light rain/snow (< 25%),
favoring the northern zones, appears on target for now.
Expectations should be kept low for moisture in SW KS, as the
dry slot looks to prevail. Behind this system, typical January
cold returns, with sunrise Saturday temperatures of 15-25
degrees. Another stronger surge of colder arctic air is possible
next weekend, but again any snow would be very light.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Southerly winds at less than 10 knots early Saturday evening
will increase to 10 to 15 knots after 06z Sunday as surface
pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies in response to an
approaching upper level disturbance. A low level jet of 45
knots will also develop across southwest Kansas overnight. These
stronger winds just above the surface will mix down to the
surface between 12z and 15z Sunday which will result in the
south southwest winds increasing to 15 to around 20 knots. A
brief period of VFR ceilings (>12000ft AGL) will be possible
during the day on Sunday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert