038
FXUS63 KDDC 011809
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
109 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant, below normal afternoon temperatures will continue
  through next weekend.

- The exception will be Wednesday, when afternoon temperatures
  warm well into the 80s to near 90.

- Limited showers and thunderstorms are expected east of US 283
  Labor Day afternoon. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail are
  possible.

- Dry weather will prevail through the upcoming week, with rain
  chances limited, and few if any impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery at midnight clearly
showed stratus and fog expanding into the southeast zones.
Surface observations showed a saturated boundary layer at Pratt,
with visibility falling. Included areas of fog across eastern
zones into Monday morning, and again with a wet environment,
standing water, and light winds, will monitor for dense fog
development through sunrise.

Northwest midlevel flow will continue on Labor Day, northeast of
a 594 dm upper high centered over Arizona. Models show little
thermal change at 850 mb from Sunday, so temperatures Monday
afternoon will mirror Sunday`s observations in the lower 80s,
with warmest temperatures in the upper 80s in the far southwest
zones. Most of Monday will be dry for most of SW KS. Did add
minimal pops for the eastern zones this afternoon, in response
to a shortwave moving south into central and eastern Kansas
during the afternoon. This added forcing for ascent will
interact with modest instability, with CAPE up to 2000 J/kg, to
generate limited shower and thunderstorms east of US 283. Some
CAMs such as 00z ARW, and 00z NAM, suggest this activity may
begin relatively early by midday. During the afternoon, modest
instability and bulk shear in the NW flow regime may support
some convective organization, with marginally severe wind/hail
possible, again east of US 283.

Tuesday and Wednesday, the midlevel ridge axis will remained
parked over the spine of the Rockies, with northwest midlevel
flow persisting. SW KS is expected to remain dry Tuesday, with
little change in afternoon temperatures, in the pleasant upper
70s and lower 80s. Convection prospects are expected to increase
some across the eastern zones/central Kansas, ahead of a cold
front passage expected Wednesday afternoon. Convergence on this
boundary warrants NBM`s chance category pops in the southeast
zones Wednesday evening. Southwest downslope components and
prefrontal compression will result in a noticeably warmer
afternoon ahead of the cold front, well into the 80s to near
90.

Model guidance defers on timing of another cold front passage
late this week, with ECMWF/EPS currently suggesting a Friday
morning passage. As such, specific temperatures Thursday and
Friday afternoons are of lower confidence, pending better
agreement with the cold front`s timing. Regardless, below normal
temperatures for early September are expected to continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Light north winds will prevail through the period given a weak
pressure gradient. Any t-storms will probably be southeast of
KDDC this afternoon and evening along a weak frontal boundary.
There is a slight chance (20% or less) that a storm could move
in vicinity of KDDC between 19-21z.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Finch