248
FXUS63 KDDC 181816
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
116 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front late this afternoon/evening will likely initiate
  isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storm generally
  east of a Hays to Larned line.

- Larger round of strong to marginally severe storms likely
  overnight, but track of this activity likely remaining north
  along and/or north of I-70 corridor.

- After a relief from the heat Wednesday, a build-up toward
  another heat wave in store for the weekend into early next
  week.

- Record or at least near-record highs well above 100 degrees
  Sunday and/or Monday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Early this afternoon, the downslope thermal ridge was pushing well
into southwest and south central Kansas with multiple automated
stations at or above 97F before 18Z (1 PM CDT). This is on par if
not a degree or two above the hourly NBM temperatures, so we are
well on our way to highs in the 103 to 107F range, east of generally
an Elkhart to Dodge City to Ness City line. Thankfully, relief is on
the way in the form of the next cold front, but it will not be
pushing south until later this evening. An isolated strong/severe
thunderstorm or two still appears likely along the surface frontal
zone with much of the CAMs and 12Z HREF LPMM Composite Reflectivity
field suggesting best zone somewhere southeast of HYS or so. Should
any convective activity form along the front in our eastern CWA, it
will quickly move deeper into central Kansas. The next larger round
of strong to potentially severe storms will take shape later tonight
in the post-frontal upslope regime across northeastern Colorado,
southwestern Nebraska, and adjacent far northwestern Kansas. A
mesoscale convective system (MCS) is likely to evolve out of this
late evening development and track east-southeastward toward and
eventually along the I-70 corridor, lasting much of the overnight
into the early morning hours along the post-frontal
instability/moisture axis where MCS maintenance parameters will be
greatest.  As such, we will keep the 30-40 POPs going up north
overnight with potential for these POPs to be increased as we get
closer to this event as track/maintenance of overnight MCS becomes a
bit more clear.

Following tonight`s cold front, Wednesday looks to be refreshingly
"cooler" with highs upper 80s to lower 90s, but as the upper level
ridge axis makes another run at expanding back north, so will the
850mb and surface temperatures. Another heat wave appears to be on
track starting this weekend lasting into early next week with Sunday
and Monday the hottest days in the current forecast. NBM
temperatures continue to tick upward with 75th percentile MaxT on
Sunday in Barber County 110+ -- easily record/near record territory
for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

A hot southwest wind at the onset of this TAF period will
continue through late afternoon (exception being GCK and HYS
with a lighter, more variable wind along the pre-frontal trough
axis), becoming northerly later this evening. An isolated
thunderstorm or two may develop along this front early this
evening, however the probability is too low to include at any of
the four airports HYS, DDC, GCK, LBL. Another opportunity for
showers and thunderstorms will occur late tonight/early
Wednesday morning, mainly up north around HYS, so we will keep a
PROB30 for thunderstorms going for just HYS and keeping GCK,
DDC, LBL dry.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-080-081-
088>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid