500
FXUS63 KDDC 172346
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
646 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 60-80% chance for strong to marginally severe
  thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

- Potential training of thunderstorms along an expected stalled
  frontal boundary may lead to localized flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of an upper level trough of low
pressure dipping southeast through the Pacific Northwest. Near the
surface, a strong lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
in extreme southeast Colorado.

An outside chance (20%) for isolated strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms remains for portions of southwest Kansas this evening
as the SREF indicates an upper level trough digging farther southeast
into the Great Basin. As the system approaches, a series of H5 vort
maxima will eject out of the Southern Rockies into the Western High
Plains, interacting with a sharpening dryline near and along the
Kansas/Colorado border. Combined with a deep moisture return providing
ample instability (MUCAPE values well above 2000-3000 J/kg) within
a field of steepening mid-level lapse rates, a few isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out across portions of southwest Kansas this evening.
This is supported by the HREF indicating a 10% probability of 6-hr
QPF exceeding a tenth of an inch for extreme southwest Kansas.

Significant thunderstorm chances (60-80%) return late Tuesday into
early Wednesday as medium range ensembles indicate an upper level
trough transitioning east through the Northern Rockies into the
Northern High Plains, sending an attendant cold front southeastward
into northern Kansas before stalling out Tuesday afternoon, somewhere
generally across southwest Kansas into north central Kansas. Ahead
of the approaching front, prevailing southerlies will continue to
enhance a moisture draw into central and portions of southwest Kansas
with surface dewpoints pushing well up into the mid/upper 60s(F),
providing more than ample instability. Steepening mid-level lapse
rates combined with increasingly favorable dynamic support aloft
in form of a field of intensifying southwesterlies spreading east
into western Kansas, will support likely thunderstorm development
in vicinity of the frontal boundary mid/late afternoon. The HREF
suggests the best chance for storms across west central Kansas and
portions of central Kansas where it indicates a 50-70% probability
of 12-hr QPF exceeding one-quarter of an inch by early Wednesday
morning. Considering high QPF fields in excess of 1 to 1.5 inches
and possible training due to a projected stalled boundary, localized
flooding could be an issue.

Well above normal temperatures are forecast tonight as prevailing
southerlies reinforce a warmer air mass across western Kansas. The
latest HREF indicates an 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping
below 75F, so expect lows generally in the lower/mid 70s(F).
Unseasonably warm temperatures continue Tuesday with H85 temperatures
holding in the lower 20s(C) ahead of the approaching frontal boundary.
The HREF paints a 70-90% probability of afternoon highs topping 90F
with the warmest temperatures in extreme southwest Kansas. Considerably
cooler temperatures are forecast behind the stalled frontal boundary
Wednesday, especially with increased cloud cover expected. The NBM
shows a 70-80% probability of high temperatures climbing above 70F
in west central Kansas and the I-70 corridor with a 60-70% probability
of highs topping 85F in south central Kansas. More widespread seasonal
temperatures are expected through the end of the week as the stalled
frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front. Expect highs
generally in the 80s(F) to near 90F Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Very strong south winds will continue through much of this TAF
period. A cold front will push south across west central Kansas
in the morning, reaching southwest Kansas in the afternoon
before slowing down and stalling out. This makes the wind
direction forecast very trick for GCK and HYS, as much of the
model guidance stall the front right over or very near both GCK
and HYS in the afternoon. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms
will develop late in the afternoon toward the end of this TAF
period, but have opted not to include TSRA or VCTS in this 00Z synoptic
TAF.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening
for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084>087.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid