047
FXUS63 KDDC 161043
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
543 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather chances exists today and tomorrow before a dry
  stretch the rest of the week

- A hot week is forecast with a moderate to major heat risk
  every day this week other than Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Current surface analysis continues to depict a low pressure system
building over the Rockies. Ensembles still have the system ejecting
and streaking through Kansas. In the meantime, storm chances for
this overnight have plummeted due to a lingering cap without a
strong enough forcing. A moderate southerly wind on Monday will
continue to transport a lot of moisture and hot air. Highs monday
are forecast to be in the 90s, with far western Kansas having the
opportunity for triple digit highs; ensembles have a 60% chance for
100 degree highs. Into the evening, storm chances return to SW
Kansas. Some CAM runs have cells beginning to fire in southern KS/CO
border. Whether these cells can initiate and survive long enough to
reach the favorable environment is in disagreement among both
different models and different runs. The more widespread potential
comes from a MCS like storm structure tracking across the KS/NE
border. In the northern counties of the forecast area, NAMNST
forecast sounding has very steep lapse rates, CAPE >3000 J/kg, and
shear >60 KTs. If the storms can congeal and develop a cold pool, a
long lasting system capable of producing 70+ winds are possible. The
confidence in strong storm development is quite high, but the most
recent model runs have it moving more eastward than southeastward.
If this holds, most if not all of the storms may miss the forecast
area to the north.

Tuesday has become the primary focus of the forecast for both heat
and severe storm potential. Before the low pressure systems moves
across the area in the afternoon, continue southeast winds will push
to raise dewpoints and high temperatures. Much of SW Kansas is in a
moderate heat risk for Tuesday especially near the KS/OK border
where temperatures are forecast to be the highest. CAMs have storms
initiating in northeast Colorado and moving east-southeast. Storm
mode is a big point of uncertainty. Recent trends have been leaning
toward a more linear mode; if supercells can develop ahead or along
the line, the modeled CAPE and Shear will support strong updraft
development and maintenance while ample low-level SRH creates a
tornado potential. If/when it develops into a line, the previous
ingredients combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and modest
DCAPE will support a strong and organized storm system capable of
all hazards. Beyond spatial uncertainty, lack of upper-level
dynamical support appears to be the limiting factor in storm
development.

Wednesday kicks off a dry stretch for SW Kansas. With the low`s
passage on Tuesday, a northerly wind will replace the stubborn
regime of southeast winds. This will provide cooler and drier air
creating a reprieve from the heat this week. Highs are forecast to
be in the 80s for most of SW Kansas. Later on Wednesday, ensembles
have a high pressure system moving through Nebraska. While no direct
impacts on SW Kansas, a wind shift will return winds from the south.
As a result Thursday, Friday, and Saturday are expected to get
progressively hotter. Both Friday and Saturday have parts of the
forecast area in a major heat risk. Most of Kansas has a likely
(>50% chance via ensembles) to reach triple digit highs in this
stretch. Heat precautions are advised this week, especially for the
communities vulnerable to heat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Some patchy fog has developed and may continue to develop,
especially at GCK and DDC. Once the fog erodes, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites. Winds will be steady out of the
south at primarily at 10-15 KTs.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ