735
FXUS63 KDDC 302200
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Many locations will remain dry Wednesday night in the dry
  slot. Severe thunderstorms possible southeast of Dodge City
  Wednesday evening.

- Rain will redevelop Thursday in the wrap around moisture, with
  1/2 to 1 inch amounts likely. Unseasonably cool with elevated
  northeast winds and temperatures struggling in the 60s.

- The coolest temperatures of the season are forecast for
  Saturday morning, well down into the 40s.

- A long dry stretch is expected this weekend through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Midday radar and satellite imagery depicted the remnant mid
level vorticity max from Pacific Hurricane Polo, moving
northeast across SW KS. Widespread moderate to heavy rain was
associated with this feature. Primary closed, extratropical
cyclone was still back over New Mexico. Surface analysis
depicted the primary surface cyclone over the NW Panhandles,
expected to translate into the southeast zones this afternoon.
Mesoanalysis already depicts enough bulk shear and storm
relative helicity to support rotating updrafts, favoring the
southeast counties, with meaningful instability poised south of
the Oklahoma border (CAPE > 1000 J/kg). Through the afternoon,
a midlevel dryslot will work its way north into SW KS, pushing
stratiform rain north, allowing instability and clearing to
spread north, and encourage rapidly redeveloping scattered
thunderstorms to develop after 2 pm. With extremely low LCLs,
and a saturated tropical environment and strong low level shear,
weak tropical tornadoes are expected. These are not the same
animals as supercell tornadoes of our spring seasons, but are
still capable of causing minor damage, and any tornado watches
and warnings still need to be respected through this evening.
Special weather statements highlighting weak tornadoes may also
be issued from DDC for some of these storms.

Tonight, as the hurricane remnants eject north into Nebraska and
Iowa, the extratropical cutoff midlevel cyclone will be ejecting
northeastward into the western zones through sunrise Thursday.
Although chance category pops remain tonight, to catch any
scattered activity, a significant lull in activity is expected
tonight as the midlevel dry slot prevails. Widespread
deformation rainfall is expected to be confined to southeast
Colorado and adjacent far western zones through 7 am Thursday.

Models forecast the closed midlevel cyclone to weaken into an
open shortwave trough, and eject eastward directly over Kansas
daylight Thursday. Guidance continues to trend slightly
southward with the primary deformation lift Thursday, and pop
grids remain in the likely/definite categories much of Thursday
for many zones as a result. Another 1/2 to 1 inch of rain is
probable Thursday, especially where the preferred deformation
axis sets up. Associated cold front arrives Thursday afternoon
with increasing/elevated northeast winds, and temperatures
struggling to get out of the 60s. Maintained the inherited flood
watch to cover hydrologic impacts of deformation rainfall
falling on saturated soils.

Subsidence takes over rapidly Thursday night, with a clear sky
and strong surface ridging building south into Kansas through
sunrise Friday. Friday promises to deliver a beautiful fall
afternoon, with sunshine, temperatures in the 60s, and light
winds. A clear sky, light winds, and 1025 mb surface ridging
will provide strong radiational cooling Friday night and
Saturday morning, providing the coolest temperatures so far
this young fall season. NBM temperatures in the 40s Saturday
morning were accepted. A long stretch of dry weather is expected
this weekend through next week, with a benign synoptic pattern
and ridging prevailing over the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Radar imagery at 22z Wed indicated much of the shower and
thunderstorm activity had ended near the airports, as the
dryslot has overspread SW KS. Dry weather is expected to prevail
at the airports through 12z Thu. High confidence that widespread
IFR/LIFR stratus will spread across all of SW KS through 12z Thu,
behind a passing cold front with a NEly wind shift. After 12z
Thu, widespread rain and degraded flight categories are expected
in the deformation zone. Strong northeast winds are expected
Thursday, gusting 25-30 kts. Rapidly improving flying weather is
expected Thursday night as subsidence takes control.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-
061>065-074>078-084>087.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner