574
FXUS63 KDDC 292003
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
203 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds will calm tonight and lows will drop into the teens

- Cold air continues through Sunday

- A quick moving system will bring light accumulations to parts of
southwest and north central Kansas on Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

19Z upper air analysis shows a rapidly exiting shortwave which is
moving towards the Great Lakes with strong cold air advection on the
western side of the system.  850 mb temps have fallen to -7 to -8
(C) in western Kansas and is as cold as -13 (C) in western Nebraska.
At the surface the 1011 mb low is centered in western Missouri with
a 1027 mb high in eastern Montana which is leading to the strong
pressure gradient and northwest winds at 20-30 mph with gusts over
40 mph.

Tonight winds should diminish through the evening and overnight
hours as the surface high slides into northern Kansas by sunrise.  A
developing mid level shortwave will introduce some high and mid
level clouds through the night.  Despite the little cloud cover the
lighter winds combined with the core of colder air hanging through
western Kansas should allow lows to fall into the lower to mid teens.

Sunday with northeast winds for most of the day (switching to the
southeast near the Colorado border by late in the day), zonal flow
aloft bringing in mid to high level cloud cover, and not much
suggestion of diurnal heating to moderate the polar air
mass...temperatures will struggle to rise through the day.  I went
with the colder NBM solution for MaxT and hourly Ts which would put
highs generally in the upper 20s across much of southwest Kansas. By
late Sunday afternoon a developing storm system in the intermountain
west will bring a negative tilt trough into the central plains by
mid Monday morning.

Monday short and medium term models continue to show a band of light
snow developing with a 700 mb fgen axis roughly from Elkhart to
Hays with the strongest lift in the dendritic growth zone closer to
Hays between 12-18Z.  Models are still showing some timing
disagreements with the NAM being the slower of the models which
would lag the timeframe of snow more into the afternoon.  Given the
open and progressive nature of the shortwave and hints of the trough
going less negative as it moves into Kansas I stuck with the faster
solution for POPs which puts the highest prob (30-40%) from Dodge
City to Hays.  The most likely scenario is a band of snow developing
along the intensifying fgen band in these areas with the better
potential of accumulating snow as you move into north central Kansas
as the lift improves.  Accumulations could reach around 1 inch near
Hays to Larned (around 50% Probability) with the rest of the area
showing greater odds of under 1 inch of snow (75-100% probability).
Winds aren`t expected to intensify so winter weather impacts look to
stay minor at this point for the I-70 corridor and areas around
Ness City to Larned.

After Monday LREF upper air patterns keep us generally in northwest
to zonal flow for the rest of the week with no great opportunities
for precipitation on the horizon.  Temperatures should also stay
fairly seasonal as the polar air is trending to stay off to the
northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Cloud cover should quickly dissipate with a departing upper
level wave and cigs should rise from MVFR to VFR shortly around
18Z. Post frontal winds will stay strong through the afternoon
and early evening hours sustained at 20-25 kts with gusts of
30-40 kts. Winds should gradually relax between 00-06Z and fall
to around 10 kts after 06Z. A deck of cirrus clouds is expected
later tonight through Sunday however we should see cigs remain
in VFR category for all terminals through the rest of the time
period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro