010
FXUS63 KDDC 071057
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
557 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds and areas of fog expected Sunday morning, with a
  clearing sky and warmer temperatures Sunday afternoon.

- A rapid warming trend is expected early next week, with
  afternoon temperatures near 100 Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Scattered strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are
  possible Monday afternoon and evening.

- The hottest temperatures are forecast for Wednesday afternoon,
  before the next cold front returns temperature closer to
  normal Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

00z DDC sounding was the wettest seen in quite some time, with a
precipitable water of 1.53 inch. Closed subtropical cyclone at
578 dm was centered over NW Oklahoma, clearly visible in
infrared satellite imagery at 9 pm. Most showers and
thunderstorms earlier across the southeast counties had
diminished with the loss of daytime heating. Still, radar
imagery shows weak convection continuing to regenerate across
NW Oklahoma, and some of these will continue to rotate
northward into southeast zones through tonight. With a
moist/tropical air mass in place, models show much of the
boundary layer reaching saturation after midnight. Widespread
stratus is expected, along with at least patchy areas of limited
visibility in fog. Fog is most likely in areas that received
measurable rain Saturday, southeast of Dodge City.

Shortwave rotates into eastern Kansas Sunday, with subsidence
clearing the sky over SW KS from west to east. Sunshine, rising
heights, breezy south winds and a net increase of at least +5C
at 850 mb all spell strong warming Sunday, with 4 pm
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, to mid 90s at
Elkhart.

A ridge-rider shortwave may generate scattered thunderstorms
Monday afternoon/evening, focused mainly on central Kansas where
NBM continues with some modest pops. The expected shear and
instability is expected to support some organized storms, per
SPC Day 3 marginal (level 1 of 5) hail/wind probabilities.

A string of three hot afternoons is expected next week, Monday
through Wednesday. Upper 90s will prevail Monday, followed by
near record highs near 100 Tuesday and Wednesday. NBM continues
with at least 80% probability of reaching 100 degrees across
much of SW KS, both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Winds on
Monday appear light, but strong south to southwest winds are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday, enhancing mixing and downslope,
and encouraging the triple digit heat. Models remain consistent
suggesting Wednesday will be the hottest day, with afternoon
temperature of 100-104, aided by prefrontal compression. Strong
trough over the northern Rockies Wednesday will send the next
cold front into SW KS Thursday, with a north wind and cooler
temperatures. NBM has been showing very low pops for this
frontal passage, but the more likely outcome is the cold front
will come through SW KS dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

From 12-15Z low clouds and fog will lead to IFR to LIFR flight
category for all terminals. After 15Z we should see the low
clouds and fog erode and the return to VFR flight category for
all terminals should return for the rest of the time period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro