266
FXUS63 KDDC 060443
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1143 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small probabilities (10-30%) for precipitation tonight into
  tomorrow morning in the western half of the CWA.

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect until Sunday at 8 PM for the
  eastern counties with the heat continuing through next week.

- More opportunities for storms Sunday night, Tuesday night, and
  Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft continues to be dominated by a very large
high pressure complex over the southern CONUS and residing overhead
of the forecast area. The only other aspect of the patttern
currently is a very strong low pressure system that continues to
deepen over the Pacific Northwest. Today`s convection greatly
over preformed and has dropped temperatures down into the 70/80s.
Some weak convection continues in very far SW Kansas, but CAMs have
these storms slowly dying off. Additionally, some CAM`s have
scattered overnight convection across the CWA that will all remain
sub-severe. The best chances appear to be up near Hays in the
northern counties at around 8 AM to noon.

A  heat advisory remains in effect east of US 283 until Sunday at 8
PM. Highs Sunday are forecast in the mid-to-upper 90s and even
exceeding triple digits in the far southeastern portion of the CWA.
Other than the heat that continues to blanket the area, the forecast
focus is on more storm chances in the evening. CAMs have weak storms
developing in eastern Colorado around 7 PM and moving into Kansas.
Progged CAPE and shear are very minimal and storms are expected to
remain well below severe thresholds if the storms even materialize.

Monday and Tuesday are forecast to continue the heat with highs in
the upper 90s. The next best chance for precipitation comes Tuesday
night with 30-40% storm chances via ensembles in the northwestern
counties. Although it is still early, it is expected that these
storms continue to be sub-severe with strong winds up to 50 mph
being possible. Wednesday, ensembles have another wave of
precipitation, this time more widespread. More time will be needed
before making declarative statements on the convection. The rest of
the forecast period will remain hot, with sunday even cooling down
enough for highs be around 90 degrees. This would easily be the
coolest day of the forecast period. Through this stretch, modest
relative humidity minimums remain above 25% quelling most of the
fire weather risk. This is forecast to accompany a continuing south
wind at 10-15 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all TAF sites through the TAF
period. Storms are currently persisting near LBL, but CAMs currently
do not have these storms reaching LBL. The same CAMs and ensembles
have about a 20-30% chance for scattered storms early tomorrow
morning around GCK and DDC, but since chances remain below 30% a
PROB30 group was not added. Outside of any convection mostly clear
skies will be accompanied by a weak south/southeast wind at around 5-
10 KTs.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ031-046-065-066-
079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ