841
FXUS63 KDDC 161017
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
517 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy and unseasonably warm Today.

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible west of
  Highway 83 after 3 pm Today. A few of these storms west
  northwest of Garden City may be capable of producing wind
  gusts up to 60 mph and quarter size hail.

- Isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible
  east of highway 281 late Friday. Gusty winds and hail will be
  the main hazards.

- Turning colder over the weekend. Highs on Saturday will be in
  the 70s and Sunday the afternoon temperatures will be in the
  upper 60s to lower 70s.

- Lows in the 30s likely (>70% chance) west of highway 283.
  First frost this season possible in several locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Early this Thursday morning a deepening trough was occurring
across eastern Colorado. East of this boundary a south southeast
wind was at near 15 knots. Also SPC Meso Analysis indicated
that 850mb winds are already reaching 40-45 knots which all the
CAMS indicated. These low level winds are expected to persist
through early Thursday and then will mix down to the surface by
noon, with surface wind gusts potentially reaching 40 mph at
times this afternoon. Given this mixing potential in the lower
levels and 850-700mb temperatures it appears that not only is
the latest NBM guidance on track for highs today but may even
end up being a little on the cool side in a few locations.
Currently highs of 80-85 degrees still looks on track with a
30-50% chance for a few locations warming to 85 degrees or a
little higher.

These warm and windy conditions will develop today ahead of an
eastern Colorado surface lee trough, which will move into far
western Kansas during the afternoon as a cold front moves into
northwest Kansas. As an upper low moves northeast across the
Central Rockies and into the west central High Plains late day,
mid level cooling and improved low level forcing along both
surface boundaries will occur. Despite potentially marginal
moisture return, the improving afternoon instability and low
level lapse rates across west central Kansas may give rise to a
few strong to even marginally severe storms. Main hazards late
today in this area (west and northwest of Garden City) will be
wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph and quarter size hail. Further south
there will be less than a 20 percent chance for a few high
based storms. Although the probability is low, given the large
low level lapse rates and high cloud bases, these storms may
also produce gusty winds. Isolated wind gusts exceeding 50 mph
cannot be ruled out.

On Friday a cold front will move into south central Kansas by
the mid afternoon. Following the cold fronts passage, developing
north winds will usher in cooler, more seasonal, temperatures
into portions of southwest Kansas. The main uncertainty for
Friday lies in where the surface boundaries will be located late
in the day. This will determine how far east this cooler air
will spread behind the front (highs in the mid 70s) and where
temperatures will once again climb into the 80s. At this time it
appears the best chance for this cooler, more seasonable
temperatures on Friday will be west of Highway 283. The location
of these boundary late day will also determine where any late
day/evening storm development will occur. While the majority of
the CAMS suggests the boundary will be east of Pratt and
Medicine Lodge by 00z Saturday, a slower, further west solution
could result in isolated storms as far west as Dodge City and
Meade. Confidence at this time is not high (<30%) on the exact
location of this boundary, but given the latest CAMS...am
favoring keeping the front further east and the risk of any
severe weather to be near or east of the Pratt and Medicine
Lodge areas Friday evening. After good collaboration with SPC,
they also tend to agree and the marginal risk for south central
Kansas has been shifted a little further east compared to the
previous outlook.

Looking ahead to the weekend...A reinforcement of cold air will
spread into southwest Kansas Saturday, accompanied by gusty
north winds. Based on ensemble 850mb mean winds of 30-40 knots,
NBM wind forecasts appear too low which is a known bias with the
NBM wind forecast that far out. Given this bias and forest
850mb winds forecast during the day those with those with
outdoor plans on Saturday should be prepare for the potential
for wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph at times. Confidence in stronger
winds late day is moderate 50-70%.

This reinforcement of colder air will bring our first chance
for overnight lows falling in the 30s across portions of
southwest Kansas as a cool dome of high pressure builds across
western Kansas Saturday night. Some areas may even dip into the
mid 30s or even a few degrees cooler early Sunday morning which
would result in our first frost of the season. The most
susceptible areas for these colder temperatures will be west of
Highway 83 and north of Garden City. While this cold snap is
expected to be brief, outdoor vegetation could be impacted.

For early next week the progressive pattern will lead to a
brief warmup Monday as an upper level ridge builds into the
Plains. However, our next upper trough moving across the Pacific
Northwest suggests another cold frontal passage and a renewed
chance for lows in the 30s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions can be expected across southwest Kansas for the
next 24 hours given the agreement from the latest short term
models. An increase in VFR ceilings, ranging from 5000 to 10000
feet AGL, is expected late today and early this evening as an
upper level trough approaches from the west. In the Garden City
area, a less than 30% chance of thunderstorms exists between
00Z and 05Z Friday. At this time due to the low probability,
convection will not be included in the 12Z TAFs. Southerly winds
will increase to around 20 knots between 15Z and 18Z today as
stronger boundary layer winds mix down to the surface. BUFR
soundings and LAMP guidance indicate the potential for gusts as
high as 30 to 35 knots at times between 18Z today and 00Z
Friday. A surface boundary crossing southwest Kansas overnight
will cause a wind shift from southerly to northerly in the
Garden City and Hays areas after 06z Friday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert