462
FXUS63 KDDC 031609
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1009 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future,
  through at least November 12th.

- A series of dry weak cold fronts will continue, with
  occasional wind shifts, but no major temperatures flucuations
  are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Mainly zonal mid to high level flow will persist over the next
several days. But there is a suggestion in some of the ensemble
suites that the pattern will amplify over the weekend, with
colder air surging into the eastern one third to one half of the
country.

A jet streak that traversed the northern states has pushed a
weak cold front into Kansas this morning. Slightly cooler
temperatures are predicted in the wake of the front today, with
highs mostly in the 60s. The warmest readings (mid 60s) will be
across south central Kansas including Medicine Lodge. Much
warmer weather is forecast for Tuesday as the low to mid level
flow becomes down slope, allowing afternoon temperatures to
reach into the 70s to near 80. From a pattern recognition
standpoint, temperatures get warmer than expected in these
regimes so that some places could reach or exceed 80. Indeed,
the 90th percentile of the NBM gives 80 degrees for a high
across most of western Kansas. Another weak and dry cold front
will knock highs back into the upper 60s for Wednesday. Only
small changes in temperature are forecast after Wednesday in the
absence of any strong fronts, with highs generally ranging from
the upper 60s to lower 70s through Saturday. Chances for
measurable precipitation are near 0% in the various ensemble
suites over the next week. This seems reasonable given a zonal
pattern that is expected to amplify into a trough over the Great
Lakes and eastern United States by the weekend and into early
next week. Such a pattern will keep low level moisture far to
the south and east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1009 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Northeast winds will gust 20-25 kts for the next few hours,
before rapidly diminishing toward sunset. Excellent flying
weather will continue this TAF period, with VFR/SKC, limited
amounts of scattered cirrus, and light winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Turner