596
FXUS63 KDDC 270930
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
430 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat conditions will continue on Monday with heat
  index values of around 110 possible near and east of highway
  183. An extreme heat warning has been issued in this area.
  West of this area a Heat Advisory is currently in effect for
  Monday.

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible tonight
  across west central Kansas and north central Kansas. A few of
  the stronger storms may produce isolated gusty winds.

- Thunderstorm chances will be on the increase mid week. The
  area with the best chance for measurable rainfall will be
  across west central and north central Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

An unseasonably warm 500mb high (500mb temperatures were
greater than the 95th percentile) was centered over southeast
Colorado and the Panhandle of Texas earlier this morning.
Isolated evening thunderstorms that occurred near a surface
boundary over eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas as a weak
upper wave crosses that area have dissipated as of 10pm CDT. A
similar setup is expected across western Kansas on Monday with
evening thunderstorms once again being possible near the surface
boundary that by late Monday as another subtle wave is forecast
to cross northwest Kansas. Only difference is that this surface
boundary will be located a little further east. As a result
there will be a slight chance for a few thunderstorms west and
north of the Garden City area late day. What storms that do
develop late day will move east towards north central Kansas
early Monday night and weaken. Currently severe weather is not
anticipated, however isolated gusty winds will be possible from
a few of the stronger storms north and west of the Garden City
area.

Dangerous heat will continue on Monday. Little change in air
mass is expected across southwest Kansas for the start of the
work week. 850Mb temperatures will once again be in the 33 to 35
degree range with the models showing less than a 3C spread in
these temperatures between the 25th and 75th percentile. Not
only this but also the late latest Extreme forecast index is
between 0.8 to 0.9 with a shift of tails greater than zero. All
this suggests a high confidence forecast for temperatures to
once again climb back into the 105 to near 110 degree range.
Based on this the ongoing heat advisory that is currently out
for all of southwest Kansas still looks on track. Do however
have a concern about portions of south central Kansas and a few
areas along the I-70 corridor. From roughly Hays to Medicine
Lodge where the overnight lows will again for the second night
stay near 80 degrees. These overnight lows will not provide much
relief to the heat of the past few days. Also based on how
temperatures/heat index values performed today compared to the
NBM forecast along with good collaboration with our neighbor
will go ahead and upgrade the Heat Advisory to a Extreme Heat
Warning for areas along an east of a Hays to Larned to Medicine
Lodge line on Monday despite that many locations may end up
being a degree or two shy of the 110 afternoon heat index. Will
continue to monitor this closely and if needed expand it
westward if required.

The upper high will begin to shift south/southwest on Tuesday
which will allow for stronger westerly flow to develop across
the Central Rockies which will be near the north/northeastern
edge of the upper high by Tuesday night. As the same time a
surface cold front will drop into southwest Kansas by Wednesday.
This will result in a brief break in the summer heat for some
locations along with increasing thunderstorm chances. Currently
based on the latest models it appears that the best chances for
rain towards mid week will be across west central and north
central Kansas. The chances will then expand across much of
southwest Kansas late week as a northwesterly flow develops as
the upper high/ridge builds across the western United States.

As mentioned earlier the temperatures will briefly cool some,
but not much, towards mid week as the cold front moves into
southwest Kansas. However highs around 100 will still be
possible during the afternoon on Tuesday prior to the frontal
passage given the warm downslope westerly flow ahead of the cold
front. Timing of this surface boundary that far out is still
somewhat unclear but latest ensemble continue to support that
areas near the Oklahoma border, especially south central Kansas
will stay south of the cold front through Wednesday. This will
result in ongoing highs around 100 with heat index values of
around 105 possible. Later shifts will need to monitor this
closely for possibly needing to extending the heat advisory for
some areas given the ongoing dangerous heat. Despite the cold
fronts arrival mid week, the temperatures will stay unseasonably
warm in the upper 90s to around 100 for most locations through
the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Good flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with
VFR/SKC and scattered cirrus. After 15z Mon, elevated south
winds are expected at all airports, gusting 20-25 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-043>045-061>063-074>076-084-085.
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-
046-064>066-077>081-086>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner