474
FXUS63 KDDC 301810
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
110 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread precipitation is on track to move across southwest
  KS today, with rainfall totals in the 0.25-0.5" range for our
  southeast zones.

- Some lingering showers are possible early Saturday, but the majority
  of the weekend will be dry with afternoon highs in the 60s to
  low 70s.

- Another chance of rain exists Monday and Tuesday, however wave
  characteristics cast doubt on current ensemble output.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

KDDC radar observations early Friday afternoon show a large
precipitation shield is moving slowly northward into western KS,
courtesy of a negatively-tilted upper level shortwave trough
ejecting northeastward from the southern plains as per recent water
vapor satellite imagery. All HREF members and other short term
guidance agree nearly our entire area will see light to moderate
rainfall through the remainder of the day into the overnight period,
before gradually tapering off from south to north. Precipitation
totals are expected to be in the 0.25-0.5" range, with locally
higher amounts possible, along and south/east of a Liberal-Dodge
City-La Crosse line, while areas north/west of this line will see
QPF gradually decrease from 0.25" to just a trace to a couple
hundredths near/along the KS/CO border.

Scattered rain showers may be ongoing early Saturday morning across
our area as the left exit region of an approaching upper level jet
streak provides some synoptic forcing, but any/all precipitation
should erode by early afternoon. Temperatures daytime Saturday will
be near to below normal as overcast skies and the recent rainfall
help to keep afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles suggest
a strong upper level wave will quickly move from the western CONUS
on Sunday onto the High Plains by late Monday/early Tuesday,
followed by longwave ridging through the end of next business week.
This synoptic evolution will favor another chance for widespread
precipitation Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned upper
trough passes through, succeeded by a dry period through Friday.
It should be noted that the probabilities of precipitation with
the early week trough may be overdone given the wave`s open and
positive tilt nature. These types of scenarios generally offer
only a limited opportunity for sufficient forcing for abundant
precipitation, and factoring in the possibility for convection
over the southern plains to generate a potential vorticity lobe
that models struggle to capture and dragging the wave southward,
this event has true bust potential. That said, plenty of
lingering moisture from today`s precipitation helps to mitigate
these concerns somewhat, so trends will need to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Surface observations across southwest KS reveal widespread
IFR/LIFR cigs and vis are impacting all terminals ahead of a
large area of light to moderate precipitation moving north out
of the OK panhandle. As the rainfall moves into southwest KS,
the fog should mix out, however the low cigs and some modest
visibility reductions will continue. Precipitation will begin to
taper off from south to north during the overnight period, but
low cigs will persist through the end of the period. Otherwise,
winds will remain out of the south aoa 12 kts through 18Z
Saturday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Springer