


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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391 FXUS63 KDDC 170346 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1046 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 ...Updated Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A thunderstorm complex may produce strong to damaging winds along the I-70 corridor early Tuesday morning. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some of these will be severe, producing large hail and damaging winds. High-end hail and/or wind is possible primarily northeast of Dodge City. - Temporarily a bit cooler, in the 80s, Wednesday. - An intense heat wave by late week, with afternoon temperatures soaring to near 100 Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 19Z surface and upper air observations show a 595 dm high centered over the desert southwest with west to northwest flow in the central and northern plains. A 700 mb shortwave over eastern Colorado is leading to a 1003 mb surface low in northeast Colorado. The warm frontal boundary is located just north of the Kansas-Nebraska border and the dryline is just west of the Kansas-Colorado state line. Tonight the main weather feature of interest will be a MCS that is expected to form along the I-80 corridor in Nebraska and move south and east into northwest and north central Kansas during the late evening and early overnight hours. The CAMs vary quite a bit in the solutions both timing and location wise however a common theme is that for much of southwest Kansas with the warm mid levels (700 mb temps at 15-17 (C)) should provide a pretty stout CAP that will inhibit thunderstorm development. Closer to the frontal boundary in Nebraska the upper level forcing should be much better and with cooler mid level temperatures the MCS should have ample CAPE to develop storms that will quickly become linear. The line of storm should ride around the warm mid level in southwest Kansas into the cooler mid levels in central Kansas. This means the greatest POPs will be along the I-70 corridor around 10pm to midnight and then into central Kansas during the early morning hours on Tuesday. Greatest threat will be wind gusts up to 70 mph and brief heavy rain. Tuesday the main forecasting challenge will be where the residual outflow boundary from the overnight MCS sets up during the day as well as the timing of a strong cold front that moves in from southern Nebraska. Short term models suggest the outflow frontal boundary setting up roughly along the highway 56 corridor by late afternoon Tuesday. Strong warming along and south of the outflow boundary should provide a stout cap however with slightly cooler 700 mb temperatures north this should provide a weaker cap and a better opportunity for thunderstorm development. Around the late afternoon a 700 mb shortwave enters into north central Kansas and this should provide the forcing for thunderstorm development that will quickly grow into a MCS along the outflow frontal boundary mainly along and east of highway 283. With DCAPE values in the 1400- 1500 J/kg range and 0-6 km shear values 35-40 kts the main severe weather threat will be downburst winds 70 mph or greater and hail larger than 2 inches in diameter. This could be a significantly impactful severe weather event especially along and north of a Dodge City to Pratt line. Another MCS is forecast to develop along the cold front in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska with the line moving through southwest Kansas during the overnight hours. Wednesday should be cooler and drier as post frontal temperatures should reach into the mid to upper 80s. Afterwards a summer like warmup will last through the weekend with the LREF upper level pattern showing a large ridge over the central and southern plains. NBM MaxT probabilities of >100 degrees are at 60-90% across southwest Kansas suggesting that we have higher confidence in heat impacts for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of HYS for the next few hours, and maintained a convective TEMPO group for HYS 06-09z Tue. Outflow wind gusts of 45-55 kts are likely. Other airports are expected to remain dry. Southeast winds will remain gusty/elevated through 12z Tue. Consensus of short term models is for MVFR to low end VFR stratus to spread into DDC/GCK/HYS 06-12z Tue, with no stratus at LBL. Stratus ceilings will gradually improve daylight Tuesday. A strong cold front will bring a sharp north wind shift to the airports 18-21z Tue, with north wind gusts as high as 35 kts. Thunderstorm placement and coverage along/behind this cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening is highly uncertain. Prefer to keep convection mention out of the end of the TAF period until model agreement improves. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...Turner