940
FXUS63 KDDC 301130
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
630 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another foggy morning for a portion of the forecast area.
  Otherwise, mild highs today. Scattered showers later in the
  the day.

- Isolated showers Saturday, otherwise turning drier Sunday.
  Mild temperatures both days.

- Unsettled weather Monday and Tuesday with more bouts of
  showers and perhaps isolated thunder. Drier weather Wednesday
  onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Moist upslope easterly flow is occurring north of a stationary
boundary that is located across western Kansas. This moist
upslope flow is resulting in another night of dense fog across a
portion of the forecast area. This is the most immediate
concern through the morning hours. Eventually, this stationary
boundary will eventually lift northward as a warm front as the
day continues. Winds will eventually turn southerly in the wake
of this warm front. Otherwise, highs today will be mild with
values peaking in the 60s. Attention then turns to the afternoon
and evening hours. Currently, satellite water vapor channel
shows a large upper level trof moving across Texas. This feature
will continue to move closer to Kansas as the day progresses.
Moisture advection will occur downstream of this feature with
PWATs increasing in the 1.20" to 1.40" across Kansas by evening.
Increasing PWATs and warm air advection will set the stage for
scattered showers to move across Kansas this afternoon and
evening. Amounts will be the lowest across the northern zones
with values in the 0.05" to 0.15" range. The highest amounts are
expected across the Oklahoma border with amounts in the 0.25"
to 0.50" range. Severe weather is not expected due to poor lapse
rates and meager instability.

For Saturday, there still could be isolated showers as a weak
wave persists near the region along with fairly high PWATs. By
Sunday, models indicate that shortwave ridging will develop
across the Great Plains. This would result in a drier and warmer
forecast as we close out the weekend period. Highs over the
weekend will be primarily in the 60s, although low 70s cannot be
ruled out on Sunday in the south. Lows will range from the 40s
in the west to the 50s in the east.

Long term models and their ensemble counterparts are showing a
second large upper level trof moving across the western United
States Sunday. This UL feature should move across Kansas during
the Monday afternoon to early Tuesday morning period. It should
be noted that several ensemble members are indicating the
passage of an open and progressive upper level wave. There has
been a noted trend in keeping this wave open and not closed and
deep anymore. If this continues to hold true, rainfall amounts
and winds would be less impressive than compared to a previously
advertised deep and closed system. Regardless, unsettled
weather looks on track for Monday and Tuesday. Beyond that, the
ensembles are in better agreement with an upper level ridge to
prevail with a drier and warmer forecast as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Dense fog at the onset of this TAF period will lift north and
eventually dissolve all together by late morning, but rain
showers will move in from the south by early to mid afternoon.
All airports will carry VCSH initially with prevailing rain
showers for a 4 or 5 hour period late this afternoon through the
mid evening hours. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible,
but most likely farther south, so only LBL airport will carry a
PROB30 for thunder with this event. Amendments will be needed
should the lightning activity be greater than currently
forecast. Aviation weather will continue to be poor even through
the end of this period 12Z Saturday with low stratus rebuilding
back in after the rain moves out.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today for KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid