810
FXUS63 KDDC 131507
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1007 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A variety of temperatures Sunday afternoon as frontal boundary
  bisects SW KS, and low clouds erode.

- Unseasonably hot with near record highs Monday; strong
  southwest winds gusting over 40 mph.

- Next cold front arrives Tuesday, providing another strong
  temperature gradient.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected behind the cold front
  Tuesday night; some storms may be strong and produce locally
  heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Surface boundary is currently situated right along, or just
south, of the KS/OK border. How this boundary meanders back
northward into this afternoon will determine how hot the area
can get. Given max temperature uncertainty and front placement,
have knocked down temperatures a few touches from the NBM
output. A few solutions like MET remain too cold, and MAV is
better but still may be a touch too low. As the previous
forecaster noted, NBM is probably running too hot with northward
extent. To compromise, maintained upper 90s to near 100 in
southern counties, but decreased them northward from there.
Temperatures may still be overdone in some spots, but generally
like where the forecast is at for now.

Very little doubt on the heat`s extent into Monday as the front
moves northward and clears the area. Widespread upper 90s to
around 100 looks probable across the entire CWA. These
temperatures are near record highs for September 14th. Gusty
winds will also be in the forecast Monday afternoon with a stiff
downslope flow from the southwest. Winds will be be 25-35
sustained, with higher gusts.

Storm chances are minimal across the forecast area today with
POPs around 20% or less at best. The boundary could serve as a
focus for a storm or two, but coverage is not expected to be
significant and any storms that do develop will lose steam very
quickly after dark. With the exception of steep low-level lapse
rates, not much going for anything severe with much lower shear
than yesterday. Gusty winds would be the risk should a storm or
two develop. The next significant chance of rain will be Monday
and into next week when a strong shortwave traverses into the
Plains and brings another cold front. Scattered thunderstorms
would be expected in this regime, with likely to definite POPs
60-80% Monday-Wednesday. Strong storms and heavy rainfall could
be associated with the activity, but day to day details will be
ironed out as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Satellite imagery at 15z Sun depicted stratus dissipating
quickly, with VFR expected by around 18z. VFR is expected for
the remainder of the TAF period. Light to elevated southeast
winds will prevail for much of the period. A strong low level
jet will keep surface winds elevated overnight, and included low
level shear in all TAFs after 03z Mon. After 18z Mon, strong
southwest winds are expected at all airports, gusting near
35 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner