627
FXUS63 KDDC 231013
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
513 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monday and Tuesday will be the hottest days of the forecast
  period with widespread lower 100s likely Tuesday afternoon.

- Heat Advisory has been issued for central and south central
  Kansas for Monday afternoon for forecast heat indices at or
  near 105 degrees.

- Cold front likely Tuesday Night offering a reprieve in the
  heat and an increase in thunderstorm chances Wednesday Night
  and Thursday Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The focus for the forecast over the next several days will be the
buildup of summer heat across the Central Plains, including our
southwest Kansas region.

The overnight water vapor imagery and RAP analysis revealed a rather
zonal pattern in the mid-upper troposphere across much of the CONUS
with a dampened ridge of higher pressure centered across the Great
Basin. This result of this will be the continued increase in lower
level thicknesses/temperature with influence expanding across the
central Great Plains through early/mid week.

As far as today is concerned, the sensible weather will be quite
pleasant with light wind much of the day from east-southeast
initially this morning...becoming south later in the afternoon as a
new leeside trough develops across eastern Colorado. Low level
convergence will increase along this new trough axis later in the
day, and there is just enough of a signal from the 00Z suite of CAMs
(i.e. HREF Prob of Composite Reflectivity > 40 dBZ above 10% along
the CO line and some paintball clustering) to have some 10-20 POPs
in the grids out west. The initial SPC SWODY1 for later on today
keeps our western counties in "General Thunder", but it would not be
surprising to see the Marginal (Level 1 of 5) extended down along
the southern KS-CO line for 5% wind risk.

As far as temperatures are concerned, the 12Z run of the HREF did a
pretty good job with temperatures yesterday using the 50th
percentile, so latest NBM (which incorporates much of the CAMs that
also make up the HREF) was followed with little or no modifications.
The heat dome across the West will begin spreading east across
western Kansas on Monday along with an increase in southwest winds.
The higher afternoon temperatures on Monday of 99 to 102F across
much of our area continues to look like a solid forecast, with 103-
105F possible across the typically hotter Red Hills region. The more
difficult forecast question will be dewpoint temperature Monday
afternoon. Latest 100-member LREF/Grand Ensemble (combining GEFS,
ECMWF-Ens, and Canadian-Ens) 50th percentile dewpoints are showing
Monday afternoon dewpoints only in the upper 50s to lower 60s, even
across our eastern counties, such that heat indices will not be much
higher than actual air temperature, if at all. Regardless, in
collaboration with neighboring WFOs GLD, GID, ICT, and OUN, we have
hoisted a Heat Advisory for Monday afternoon for our two I-70
counties and easternmost column of counties from Ellis down through
Stafford to Barber for heat indices approaching/touching 105F.

Tuesday looks even hotter as latest NBM has widespread 101 to 104F
temperatures for afternoon highs as a low level thermal ridge
expands northeast across the western half of Kansas. We will likely
need another heat headline for Tuesday, although a cold front
pushing south Tuesday Night will offer at least a temporary reprieve
from the 100-degree heat as we head in to Wednesday.

The front coming down mid-week will offer an increase in
thunderstorm chances, especially in the post-frontal easterly
upslope regime, which is the typical pattern for organized
thunderstorm activity across western Kansas in the summer. Latest
global model suite maintains a formidable MCS pattern across the
Central Plains through Thursday Night, until we return to a hotter
west-southwest pattern aloft toward the end of the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Aviation weather will remain quiet this TAF period with light
southeasterly winds much of the day, becoming south late. An
isolated thunderstorm or two along the Colorado line is not
expected to impact any of the terminals this evening, so there
will continue to be no mention of TSRA or VCTS. Widespread VFR
flight category will prevail with only mid and high level
cloudiness expected.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ030-031-046-
065-066-081-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid