302
FXUS63 KDDC 241022
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
522 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures around 100 degrees to start the workweek

- Best opportunity for rain will be Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning with 40-50% probability of locations along and west of
highway 283 receiving 0.25 inch or more of rainfall

- Storms Tuesday night have a slight risk of severe weather from SPC
with wind as the greatest threat

- Cooling trend for midweek followed by the return of 100 degree
temperatures this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

05Z synopsis shows spotty showers and storms located from the
Colorado border to near Liberal as a 500-700 mb shortwave is moving
into western Kansas due to northwest flow aloft.

Short term models have the upper level wave, cloud cover, and any
rain exiting the region by mid morning.  Winds throughout the day
should be light with a looser pressure gradient across western
Kansas.  By late afternoon hotter air from the southwest should
arrive into far western Kansas and with ample sunshine NBM
probabilities of hitting 100 degrees are at 40% for areas along and
south of highway 160.  With continued northwest flow in the mid
levels another 500-700 mb shortwave will develop in the front range
in the late afternoon triggering convection.  With the upper level
high breaking down to the southwest this should allow the convection
to reach into western Kansas after sunset and the storms will decay
as they move eastward through the night.

Tuesday the day should start off with residual cloud cover in the
morning as the shortwave moves onto the east and more easterly
surface winds.  This will keep temperatures at bay through the
morning but by afternoon with the return of sunshine and southerly
winds we should see the return of mid 90s.  By mid to late afternoon
short term models have a stout mid level shortwave coming from
southern Nebraska into north central Kansas.  We could see storm
development as early as 4 pm in our eastern zones.  Another front
range shortwave should trigger a line of convection in eastern
Colorado and move into western Kansas during the overnight hours.
POP has increased with the newest model guidance to 50-80%. NBM
probabilities continue to show a 40-50% chance of at least 0.25 inch
of precipitation west of highway 283 suggesting this round of storms
will have better lift and more moisture to work with. MUCAPE values
from various models Wednesday morning are in the 2000-3000 range and
skew t soundings suggest elevated convection with not much bulk
shear which would lead to mainly a wind threat and localized heavier
rainfall with the stronger storms.

The persistent weather pattern continues into Wednesday night as
medium range models show another late night shortwave passing
through Kansas giving much of western Kansas another decent shot of
rain with POPs in the 40-50% range.  The repeated opportunities for
rain along with the upper high departing slightly westward should
allow highs to be slightly cooler mid to late week with highs in the
lower 90s.  Long term ensembles have the upper high moving back to
the east during the weekend allowing a higher probability of hotter
weather to return.  NBM probabilities of 100 degree highs are back
into the 40-90% range for much of western Kansas for Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will be light and variable this morning becoming easterly this
afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Hovorka_42