627
FXUS63 KDDC 171749
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1249 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest KS will have to endure another stretch of well-above
  normal temperatures as highs reach into the 90s Thursday
  through Saturday.

- Strong cold front late Saturday/early Sunday will usher in a
  much cooler airmass with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to mid
  80s next week.

- Confidence is high that precipitation will accompany the cold
  frontal passage, along with additional chances Mon-Thu in a
  wetter pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft continues to be headlined by a expansive
high pressure system over the southeastern portion of the CONUS. The
low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest continues to hold
steady near the Oregon/California border. Nearer to the surface and
the CWA, a weak surface low pressure system resides in northeastern
Colorado.

Today will continue the pattern of hot and mostly dry. Both highs
are forecast in the mid-90s. The surface low is expected to induce
very weak thunderstorms tonight, but all CAMs have either no
convection or weak convection northwest of the forecast area. Friday
will be similar from a precipitation perspective with
weak/marginal storms northwest of the CWA. There is a little
more uncertainty with some CAMs having some storms scrapping the
northwestern counties, but ensemble chances remain <15%.

Saturday`s highs are expected to be similar, but holds a little more
uncertainty based on a timing of a cold front. Ahead of the cold
front in the afternoon/evening, storms are expected to develop in
the eastern counties. These storms are expected to remain marginal
if not sub-severe. More time will be needed to observed the pattern
and the timing in the front for a better idea for the conduciveness
of the environment. More widespread showers are expected behind
the front well into the overnight. QPF values have widespread
0.1-0.15" with the obvious caveat that some areas will see more
and some will see less. The driest area that will likely receive
no rain is in far SW Kansas with the wettest areas in the
northern counties.

Sunday will lead off next week considerably cooler. Highs are
forecast in the upper 70s/lower 80s through Thursday. Every single
one of these days has at least 30% chance or greater for
precipitation via ensembles. Future forecasts will provide more
clarity and specifics about the potential storms once temporal
uncertainty is reduced. Relative humidity minimums will remain well
above 25% quelling most of the fire weather risk with only an
elevated risk Thursday and Friday with strong south winds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all TAF sites through the TAF
period. A south/southwest wind is forecast through the TAF period at
around 10-20 KTs and gusts up to 30 KTs with clear/mostly clear
skies. Weak LLWS is forecast around 8-12Z near HYS and GCK, but is
too marginal to be included in the TAFs.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ