788
FXUS63 KDDC 012201
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
501 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance for severe thunderstorms today across southwest
  Kansas. Main hazards through sunset will be wind gusts of 70
  mph or higher and hail 2 inches or larger. After sunset the
  hail threat will decrease but strong damaging and locally
  heavy rainfall will continue to accompany these storms.

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms will continue Tuesday
  and Wednesday, mainly west of highway 283. Heavy rainfall,
  hail and strong gusty winds will be the main hazards both day.

- Heavy rainfall potential during the first half of the work
  week may result in localized urban and small stream flooding
  risks.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Moist southeasterly upslope flow persists across western Kansas
today. Short term models forecast improving low level forcing
along a surface boundary that will extended from northeast
Colorado into south central Kansas during the afternoon.
Increasing 0-1 km frontogenesis and an axis of late day
instability along/near this boundary will support afternoon
thunderstorm development as an upper level trough approaches.
Severe weather is possible, with the highest confidence of this
occurring after 4 PM MDT/5 PM CDT over northeast Colorado and
west central Kansas. Further east isolated strong to severe
storms cannot be ruled out but may struggle given the warm
temperatures aloft. The risk for severe weather will increase
after 7pm this evening across all of southwest Kansas as what
thunderstorms that do develop near the Colorado border move
east southeast along the moist/instability axis that will extend
into south central Kansas. Primary hazards through this evening
include damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and large 2 inch hail.
After sunset it appears that the hail risk will diminish and the
main hazards will transition to strong gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall.

These afternoon thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage as they move east southeast across southwest Kansas
overnight. Based on the forecast location of the mid level
baroclinic zone and moisture/instability axis it currently
appears the most favorable area for the severe storm potential
will be highest extend near and north of a line extending
Garden City and Syracuse to Dodge City to Pratt/Medicine Lodge.
Again the main hazards tonight will be strong gusty winds +70
mph and heavy rainfall. Currently, there is a 40% chance these
storms will be capable of producing rainfall amounts greater
than 0.5 inch but locally higher amounts will be likely.

On Tuesday any lingering convection east of Highway 283 will
end by noon. The surface boundary will be pushed further south,
closer to the Oklahoma border, due to overnight convection and
ongoing moisture upslope flow persisting north of this boundary.
Gulf moisture transport will also be improving across western
Kansas on Tuesday, given by increasing southerly low level flow
developing west of a surface to 500 mb high moving toward the
Ohio Valley. While confidence in the exact location of our
surface boundary is low at this time, this frontal boundary will
be the main focus area for scattered afternoon thunderstorms as
an upper level disturbance approaches from the southwest.
Currently it appears the CAMS are clustering this boundary
between Liberal and Garden City late day. Despite marginal shear
(weaker than today), a few isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms remain possible given the mid level instability
and low-level forcing. Main hazards include hail up to quarter
size and wind gusts of 60 mph. Heavy rainfall may become a
significant issue given PWAT values exceeding 1.25 inches, which
is well above seasonal climatological means.

On Wednesday, similar conditions will persist across southwest
Kansas as moisture continues to spread into the area and a
surface boundary will be situated across portions of the area
ahead of a more significant upper level trough. Shear remains
marginal, though moderate instability is still expected. Slower
storm motion is anticipated due to mean 700-500 mb winds
decreasing to less than 20 knots. This environment continues to
support marginal severe weather, but the heavy rainfall and
possible isolated flooding issues may be increasing in some
areas given slow storm motion and high precipitation efficiency.
Repeated cell training over identical corridors introduces
localized urban and small stream flooding risks.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR is expected through TAF pd. The short term concern is the
developing thunderstorm complex that is expected to roll across
the terminals later this evening. The best timing is between 01Z
and 06Z according to the HRRR. These storms may produce strong
outflow winds that could be 50+ kt. Will have to watch local
radar trends and amend as needed once the severity of the wind
magnitude becomes more clear. Locally reduced visibility
associated with heavy rainfall is also a distinct possibility in
the TSRA. Outside of the storms, winds will be SE 10-20 kt with
gusts in the 20s. There is a chance of storms tomorrow, but
this is towards the end of the TAF pd and will not mention for
now.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden