623
FXUS63 KDDC 222200
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall chances increasing this weekend into early next week.
  Locally heavy rainfall possible which may result in water
  issues or localized flooding Sunday night through early
  Wednesday.

- Fall like temperatures expected (Highs in the upper 60s to lower
  70s) across southwest Kansas during the first half of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A cold front that brought scattered precipitation to Nebraska
earlier this morning is crossing southwest Nebraska and approaching
northwest Kansas at 1pm this Friday afternoon. An upper level
trough is positioned over the northern Plains as an upper level
ridge begins to build over the Western United States.

Models and ensembles today remain in good agreement and had run
to run consistency with this cold front crossing southwest
Kansas late tonight as the upper trough moves into the western
Great Lakes and an upper level ridge amplifies near the West
Coast. This pattern will lead to a period of wet weather and
fall like temperatures through the first half of next week, with
increasing chances for accumulating rainfall. Ensembles have
been consistently forecasting 2-4 inches of rain from this event
early next week, which may cause water issues in some areas.
The main uncertainty is the exact location of the heaviest
rainfall.

Rainfall chances this weekend and early next week. While
scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front
late tonight and Saturday...widespread rainfall is more likely
between late Sunday and Wednesday due to several upper waves
embedded in a northwest flow crossing western Kansas. Models and
ensembles continue to show an area of high PWATS over southwest
Kansas early next week as a moist upslope flow develops across
southwest Kansas and eastern Colorado. This will create a
favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop over eastern
Colorado ahead of any approaching upper wave embedded in a
northwest flow and then move across western Kansas. Also have
noticed that for the third consecutive day, the ECWMF Extreme
Forecast Index and Shift of Tails for QPF highlights southwest
Kansas with an EFI between 0.5 and 0.8 and a SOT between zero and
one. This indicates high confidence for an extreme event. Based on
this plus the high PWATS and ongoing ensemble consistency with
multiple rounds of rainfall crossing western Kansas there is an
60-80% confidence level that rainfall amounts from this upcoming
event will be in the NBM 75th to 90th percentile range in some
areas between Sunday night and Wednesday. The latest 75th to 90th
percentile for 24 hour rainfall totals ending at 7 PM Monday
currently ranges from 1.5 and 3.5 inches. For Monday night and
Tuesday, the 24 hour rainfall forecast south of the Arkansas River
is between 1.25 and 2.5 inches. These two rounds of heavy rain
may lead to isolated flooding and water issues across portions of
southwest Kansas. WPC has already outlined southwest Kansas as an
area favorable for a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Those
with outdoor plans in these areas should closely monitor the
weather and be prepared to move indoors if needed.

After Wednesday there will be a chance for thunderstorms
continuing almost daily for some part of southwest Kansas
through the remainder of the work week, but rainfall amounts are
not expected to be as high as earlier in the week. Despite these
lower rainfall totals any additional rainfall on top of what
some areas receive early in the week could still create ongoing
water issues, particularly in low lying and poor drainage areas.

Along with increasing rainfall chances, a period of fall like
temperatures is expected. A cold front crossing southwest Kansas
late tonight will usher in the first round of cooler air over
the weekend, replacing 90s with 80s for highs. A better shot of
cooler air will arrive early next week as unseasonably cold
surface to 850mb temperatures settle into the area, as indicated
by the latest ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles. The ECMWF ensemble has
850mb temperature standardized anomalies at 00z Tuesday and 00z
Wednesday between -2 and -4C. This supports the current
forecast of highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. However,
persistent clouds and scattered precipitation during the day on
Monday through Wednesday could lead to even cooler afternoon
temperatures by as much as 5 to 8F. The probability for highs to
be less than 65 degrees is currently around 30% on Monday and
Tuesday. These fall like temperatures are expected to continue
through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR will continue through this TAF period, with broken to
overcast midlevel cloud ceilings expected after 12z Sat. Light
winds, variable in direction, will continue through 06z Sat.
A cold front is forecast to clear all airports by 12-15z Sat,
with an uptick in northeast winds of 12-15 kts. Some NEly wind
gusts of 22-25 kts are probable after 18z Sat. Limited coverage
of post-frontal rain showers is expected after 18z Sat, but
opted to keep this set of TAFs dry for now.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner