517
FXUS63 KDDC 010518
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

...Updated Fire Weather...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intensely hot afternoons will continue through all of this
  week, with afternoon temperatures of 100-105 common each day.
  Unseasonably hot afternoons will continue through Labor Day.
  Above normal temperatures are expected to continue into mid
  September.

- Repeated hot afternoons will accumulate heat stress on outdoor
  activity, pets and livestock.

- Dry weather will prevail across southwest Kansas through Labor
  Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Midnight radar and satellite imagery depicted weakening showers
and thunderstorms across NW KS, on the eastern periphery of the
monsoonal moisture plume, along the Colorado/Kansas border. It
was another clear very warm night across Kansas - still 85 at
DDC at 1030 pm.

Persistence will be the preferred forecasting method all the
way through Labor Day weekend, with models showing little to no
thermal variability from day to day. The stagnant summer pattern
will remain locked in through the weekend. Models do show
continuity from previous solutions, with the core of the heat
dome ridge remaining east of SW KS Tuesday and Wednesday, then
retrograding westward to recenter over the SW KS region through
the holiday weekend. Can`t rule out an isolated afternoon or
evening thunderstorm at peak heating each day, but it will be
exceedingly difficult for convection to mature or be widespread
through the weekend in the strongly subsident environment.
Anything that can form would probably favor the northwest zones
nearest the monsoon`s influence, but NBM pops are necessarily
very low. Most of SW KS will be dry for quite some time.

NBM max temperature grids continue with their 1-3 degree cool
bias, and added 1-3 degrees to the afternoon temperatures for
the next several days. Afternoon temperatures of 100-105 will be
common each day through the weekend. The apparent temperature or
heat index will flirt with heat advisory criteria (105) across
the southeast zones each afternoon, but in general this heat
wave will feature a drier daily heat, with dewpoints in the
upper 50s and lower 60s, with apparent temperatures remaining
similar to the air temperatures. South winds will prevail each
day, but do not appear overly strong on any given day, as lee
trough remains persistent but modest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period,
with VFR/SKC, scattered cirrus, and light winds. After 15z Tue,
southwest to south winds are expected to gust 20-25 kts at all
airports.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Very hot afternoon temperatures of 100-105 will continue to
lower relative humidity to 20-25% each afternoon. South winds
will remain elevated each day, gusting 20-30 mph. As fuels
continue to cure and dry out in this repeating regime of hot dry
afternoons, the risk of wildfire spread will be elevated during
the peak heating hours. Outdoor burning is discouraged.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner