496
FXUS63 KDDC 102140
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
440 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Limited coverage of thunderstorms southeast counties Tuesday
  evening.

- A strong cold front will sweep through southwest Kansas
  tonight with strong north winds gusting over 40 mph.

- Dramatically cooler Wednesday, with strong north winds through
  midday. Diminishing north winds Wednesday afternoon.

- Unseasonably warm afternoons return Thursday through Saturday.

- Another strong cold front with strong north winds and much
  cooler air Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Earlier today a surface boundary/cold front as moving through
southwest Kansas with gusty northwest winds developing behind
it. Models today were in good agreement that this surface
boundary would stall across northern Oklahoma as an upper level
trough moves into western Kansas. North of this boundary...afternoon
humidity values are expected to fall back into the teens as
temperatures warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s south of the
Arkansas River. Latest models continue to indicate afternoon
wind gusts will stay below 25 mph but given the current forecast
with low humidity values the fire risk level west of Highway 83
and along the Oklahoma border will be elevated or very close to
elevated. There may even be a few locations west of Liberal
possibly reaching the near critical category.

The fire risk concerns this afternoon will then give way to a
slight chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms early
this evening. The surface boundary that will be located across
northern Oklahoma late today will be the primary focus for late
day storm development. Storms that do develop along this
boundary late today will move northeast into south central and
possibly southwest Kansas, becoming elevated early this evening.
Improving instability due to cooling temperatures aloft and
enhanced lift ahead of the approaching upper trough will support
that what storms that do develop...a few will be capable of
producing isolated hail of 1 to 2 inches. The best chance should
strong or severe thunderstorms develops will be between 6pm and
10pm.

After midnight the focus shifts from thunderstorms to gusty
north winds. A cold front will move across southwest Kansas
through the predawn hours, leading to a tight surface pressure
gradient. Short term model guidance supports wind gusts
occasionally reaching 40 mph or slightly higher. These gusty
winds combined with the returning colder air will result in
wind chills dropping into the 20s early Wednesday morning,
primarily west and north of the Dodge City area. Low
temperatures Wednesday morning will generally be in the 30s.

Winds will gradually decrease during the day Wednesday...however
speeds will remain high enough to maintain a high fire risk
potential. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across
a large area west of Highway 283, based on forecast afternoon
humidity values. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
despite afternoon temperatures on average being 20 to 30 degrees
cooler than Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday night high pressure will move across western Kansas
as an upper level trough exits the Plains. As the upper trough
passes the upper flow will become more westerly leading to
downslope warming and temperatures rebounding into the low 60s.
The most significant warmup is expected on Friday as an upper
level ridge briefly amplifies over the Rockies. This will induce
deep southwesterly downslope flow, spreading unseasonably warm
air into western Kansas. High temperatures on Friday are
forecast to climb into the 70s.

Enjoy the warm air late this week. By late Saturday, a
secondary northern stream upper level trough will cross the
Rockies and move into the Plains. This will bring another cold
front across southwest Kansas. There is a low probability (under
15%) for measurable precipitation with this front due to
limited moisture return. Temperatures following the cold front
will be mainly in the 50s for Sunday and Monday, returning
conditions to typical mid March values.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 440 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR will continue through this TAF period, with scattered cirrus
and midlevel clouds. Thunderstorms across NE Texas Panhandle
and NW OK at 2130z are expected to move northeast and remain
southeast of the airports. A strong cold front will sweep
through SW KS around 06z Wed, with a sharp increase in north
winds, gusting 35-40 kts for a few hours overnight. North winds
will diminish some temporarily around 12z Wed, followed by
another uptick of north winds, gusting 35-38 kts 15-18z Wed.
North winds. North winds will diminish rapidly after 18z Wed as
surface high pressure builds south into Kansas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Elevated to near critical fire risk is expected this afternoon
west of the Liberal to Sublette line. Afternoon humidity will
drop into the teens along the Oklahoma border and west of
Highway 83 as temperatures climb into the upper 70s to lower
80s. These conditions, combined with a 30% to 60% chance of wind
gusts greater than 20 mph west of a Sublette to Liberal line,
will lead to a period of Elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions. Elsewhere, weaker winds will result in a lower fire
risk, primarily near elevated.

Another period of elevated fire risk is possible on Wednesday.
Gusty northwest winds will develop behind a cold front crossing
southwest Kansas late tonight and continue through the day on
Wednesday. Current short term models show a 60% or greater
chance for wind gusts exceeding 25 mph across southwest Kansas.
Afternoon humidity values will fall back to around 20% along
and west of Highway 283.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert