304
FXUS63 KDDC 221030
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a small chance of non-severe t-storms (5-20%) across
  far western Kansas this evening and a better chance (40-60%)
  across north central and western Kansas for Thursday night.

- Hot weather will persist through Saturday, especially across
  far southwest Kansas.

- Very hot temperatures of around 105+ degrees are expected for
  the Sunday through Wednesday time frame, along with very low
  humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The southern edge of the mid to high level westerlies will be
located across the central plains through Friday. A nearly
stationary front will persist across western Kansas. Along and
just on the cooler side of the front the low level moisture
will collect, leading to marginal instability with daytime
heating. Very warm temperatures at 500mb (-3C), along with the
absence of vertical wind shear, will preclude any substantial
severe weather. Isolated t-storms are expected across far
western Kansas this afternoon and evening; but most locations
should remain dry (measurable rain chances 5 to 20% in places
such as Syracuse and Lakin). Given the positioning of the front
across western Kansas, expect the hottest temperatures across
far southwest Kansas, with cooler readings in Hays. Temperatures
at Elkhart, Ulysses and Hugoton will likely reach 100 or higher
today and Thursday.

A weak upper level disturbance over western Nevada this morning
is predicted to rotate around the upper level ridge and
approach the high plains Thursday night. Given the persistent
frontal zone and associated thermal and moisture gradients,
t-storms are again a possibility. The national blend of models
gives 50-70% t-storm chances across western Kansas and along
I-70 for Thursday night. The various ensemble means indicate
modest rain amounts, with central Kansas around Hays being
favored over locations along the OK/KS state line. Therefore,
chances for meaningful rain are mainly confined to west central
Kansas and along I-70. By Friday the front is expected to sag
southward, with western Kansas located on the north side of the
boundary. Thus, any t-storms ought to be south of the KS/OK
state line.

The upper level ridge is advertised to expand northward by
Sunday and Monday, with any mid level westerly flow across the
Rockies well north of Kansas. With extremely warm 700mb
temperatures (16-19C), expect extremely hot readings of 105
degrees by Sunday and perhaps 106-108 by Monday and Tuesday.
Given the very deep boundary layer up through the 600mb level,
any lingering low level moisture will become diluted in the
vertical and "mix out", resulting in deep inverted-v thermal
profiles and minimal CAPE (especially by Monday). Thus, t-storm
chances are near 0%. This extremely hot and dry weather will
persist through at least Wednesday and possibly into Thursday
given the strong upper level ridging.

The ensemble means indicate the upper level ridge shifting
westward by later next week, possibly allowing a weak cold front
to pass through Kansas. This would result in a cool down of 5 to
10 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.
Winds will increase after 15Z and stay breezy through 03Z with
sustained winds at 15-20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Tatro