742
FXUS63 KDDC 070506
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1206 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue today and Tuesday.

- Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

WV imagery indicates an upper level ridge centered across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low
pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

Although relatively dry conditions will dominate across much of the
area early in the period, minimal thunderstorm chances (<20%) cannot
be ruled out near the Colorado line early in the period as the SREF
indicates the aforementioned ridge axis shifting slowly east into
the Central Plains, giving way to a southwesterly flow aloft across
the Western High Plains. Near the surface, prevailing south-
southeasterlies will support pooling moisture ahead of a lee side
trough axis slowly approaching the Colorado/Kansas line, resulting
in modest MUCAPE values in excess of 500 to 1000 J/kg. As a result,
diurnally driven thunderstorm development is forecast across eastern
Colorado in vicinity of the trough axis late this afternoon in
conjunction with H5 vort maxima ejecting out of the Southern Rockies.
Storms are expected to drift east-northeast toward the Kansas line
during the evening. This is hinted at by the latest HREF pointing
to only 10 to 20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch
in west central/extreme southwest Kansas by late evening. A similar
set up exists Tuesday, though storm chances (30-50%) pick up a bit
out west as an upper level shortwave trough transitions east through
the Dakotas, sending an attendant cold front southeast into extreme
western Kansas overnight.

Unseasonably hot temperatures are likely again today as prevailing
southerlies reinforce a much warmer air mass across the area with
H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) in central Kansas to
around 30C near the Colorado line. Look for widespread afternoon
highs in the mid/upper 90s(F) with the HREF painting a better than
80% probability of temperatures exceeding 95F for much of the area
with highs potentially topping 100F in central/south central Kansas
where there is a 50-70% probability of reaching the century mark.
Similar temperatures are forecast Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through the
period. Light southerly winds overnight are expected to increase 15
to 25kt generally after 14-16Z as a lee side trough of low pressure
slowly strengthens in eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson