559
FXUS63 KDDC 280347
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1047 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog (possibly dense at times) expected in a 2-4 hour
  period early to mid-morning Monday from Liberal to Hays and
  areas west to the Colorado line.

- The current pattern yielding quiet weather will be pushed out
  by an approaching storm system entering California this
  afternoon.

- This pattern change, along with the remnants of Hurricane
  Polo, will bring a 48-72 hour period of consistent rainfall
  starting Tuesday morning, mainly in the far southwest, and
  ending across south central/central Kansas some time late
  Thursday

- As of this morning`s NBM run, widespread rainfall amounts of
  2-3 inches could be observed with the greatest potential (50%
  or greater chance) of 3 to 3.5 inches west of a Liberal to
  Hays line over the entire 72-hour event.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The morning dense fog event cleared out by late morning across the
northeastern/east central counties (particularly Hays to Pratt
corridor), but temperatures have rebounded fairly nicely with
abundant sunshine outside of some thin high clouds. The
easter/northeasterly winds, however, will continue into tonight, and
with lower to mid 60s dewpoints upstream of the surface east-
northeasterly winds, the combined moisture advection and upslope
component will support another round of fog and low stratus, focused
especially on the western/northwestern half of the DDC CWA. The
evening shift will need to monitor observation trends and HRRR
forecast trends regarding placement and duration of any dense fog
threat for possible issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory. As of early
this afternoon, however, there is just enough uncertainty to hoist a
headline.

After morning fog burns off Monday, surface winds will veer around
to the southeast, increasing in speed closer to the Colorado line as
MSLP gradient gradually tightens in advance of the next upper level
storm system. Monday temperatures should top out in the lower 80s
most locations (slightly cooler than that north/warmer south). Focus
Monday night then turns to the incoming polar jet stream trough and
the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Polo as the two systems phase into
a larger, eventual extra-tropical cyclone (ETC) somewhere across the
Southern Rockies and adjacent Southern High Plains. The remnants of
Polo will draw up plenty of lower-mid tropospheric moisture from the
Pacific while the increased low level pressure gradient will aid in
drawing up additional low level gulf moisture from the southeast.
The merging of these two moisture sources and the phasing of the two
low pressure systems will work together to result in widespread rain
and thunderstorms in a significant Warm Conveyor Belt (WCB) air
stream from northern Mexico straight north across New Mexico into
southern/southeastern Colorado, the Texas-Oklahoma Panhandles, and
eventually southwest Kansas.

There is still a rather high degree of confidence in significant
rainfall across much of southwest and west central Kansas, but there
is also a fair amount of uncertainty in how these two low pressure
systems will phase -- when the phasing occurs, how fast the phasing
occurs, what the resulting combined low pressure system looks like,
how fast/where the eventual occlusion process occurs -- and related
to the last point, how fast a dry intrusion air stream (the "dry
slot") advances north to begin the occlusion and eventual "filling
of the low" process. Some of the latest deterministic global model
solutions are now showing a faster occlusion process (i.e. faster
evolution of dry intrusion working into the low) occurring a little
farther west, effectively pivoting the low straight north late
Tuesday Night into Wednesday with a resulting deformation axis
farther northwest, deeper into Colorado than what models were
showing yesterday. Regardless, much of southwestern Kansas will see
heavy rainfall from the main WCB region of the developing ETC when
low level moisture transport vectors will be the strongest out of
the south-southeast coincident with PW values well above the 99th
percentile for this time of year (1.75"+) across much of
southwestern Kansas. The WCB region alone will likely yield 1.5 to 3
inches of rain across the southwester/western third to half of the
DDC CWA given the anomalously high PW values and residence time the
WCB region will be over any one location across southwest Kansas,
despite any advancement of the dry slot later on Wednesday.

The latest NWS Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlook
(ERO) for Day 3 -- Tuesday/Tues. Night will call for SLIGHT Risk
across all of southwest and west central Kansas with the MODERATE
Risk clipping the Elkhart to Johnson to Syracuse areas for greater
risk of torrential rainfall rates leading to a flash flood risk.
Since there is quite a bit of uncertainty in how the low will
evolved on Wednesday (even into Thursday), the close proximity of
the low to southwest Kansas still supports a SLIGHT Risk ERO for Day
4 -- Wednesday and Day 5 -- Thursday across all of southwest, west
central, central, and south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Flight conditions will start out as VFR. A low stratus deck or
even fog will be possible in the morning with IFR conditions.
Some of the models were showing the potential for dense fog for
KGCK and KLBL in the morning. Confidence on this right now is
not particularly that high. The 12Z TAFs might have to be
adjusted if fog trends become more clear later through the
overnight hours. Otherwise, flight conditions will return back
to VFR as fog and/or stratus starts to erode. Winds will remain
light SE to S 5-10 kt.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden