405
FXUS63 KDDC 132327
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
627 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooling trend reverses today, with afternoon highs returning
  to the upper 80s/low 90s.

- Precipitation is possible the next several nights as
  thunderstorms develop in CO and potentially spread into our
  area.

- Temperatures will continue to rise through early next week,
  with highs in the upper 90s/near 100 by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

As expected, water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air
analysis at midday reveal longwave ridging has begun to build
over the southwestern CONUS in the wake of a shortwave trough
now centered near the Ozarks. Given convergence aloft and rising
500-mb heights, the cooling trend southwest KS has enjoyed the
past couple days will reverse, with afternoon highs increasing
into the upper 80s/low 90s despite scattered cloud debris.
Later this afternoon, high resolution guidance continues to
suggest thunderstorms will develop across northeast CO and
spread east- southeast or southeast with time as they congeal
into a loosely organized mesoscale convective system. Latest Day
1 Convective Outlook from the SPC still outlines a slight risk
(Level 2 of 5) across much of our area, implying this activity
will reach our area around 06Z. That said, disagreement still
exists between HREF members regarding how far east/south this
convective complex will reach, so pops were limited to the low-
end chance category (25-54%). Any thunderstorms that do reach
our area will pose a marginally severe wind gust threat.

Short range ensembles agree the upper level longwave ridge will
build further over NM during the day Saturday, with
northwesterly 500-mb flow becoming established over the central
plains. Therefore, the warming trend will persist as afternoon
temperatures increase into the low to mid 90s. Another round of
late evening/overnight thunderstorms is possible as convection
once again develops over the higher terrain in CO, but
confidence remains low.

Early next week, medium range ensembles suggest the upper level
longwave ridge will begin to dampen as a trough moves ashore
over the western CONUS late Monday into early Tuesday. This will
initially have no impact on the warming trend as afternoon
highs increase into the upper 90s/near 100 by Tuesday. However,
this trough is expected to push a cold front through southwest
KS sometime mid-week, which should knock temperatures down
closer to normal by the end of the work week. Additionally,
precipitation chances will endure through much of the long term
period as ensemble meteograms show at least some signal for QPF,
especially Sunday and Tuesday, likely in the form of
thunderstorm complexes rolling into southwest KS from CO during
the late evening/overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

East to southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots will continue to draw
more humid air into southwest Kansas. This will favor the
development of ceilings in the 2000 to 3500ft AGL...mainly along
and east of highway 283 as a cluster of thunderstorms cross
portions of southwest Kansas between 09z and 15z Saturday.
Currently based on the mid level baroclinic zone and the
moist/instability axis the most favorable area for overnight
thunderstorms appears to stay north and east of the Dodge City
area. As a result the Hay TAF will reflect a prevailing period
of thunderstorms between 09z and 12z according to the latest
CAMS, while thunderstorm chances for Dodge City will remain at
or below 20%. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the primary
hazards from these storms early Saturday morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Burgert