608
FXUS63 KDDC 052200
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk of severe storms this evening mainly north and west
of Garden City

- A ridge in the upper levels will stay in place for much of the
week keeping high temperatures in the 90s to around 100

- Long range ensembles hint at a cool down for next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

17Z synopsis has a large ridge in the 300-700 mb range across much
of the CONUS with a slow moving digging trough located in the
Pacific northwest.  A band of mid to high level clouds from last
night`s convection continues from Elkhart to Hays.  At the surface a
1005 mb low is located east of the Denver metro and the tightening
pressure gradient is leading to breezy south winds in western Kansas
and temperatures are quickly warming into the 90s across much of the
region.

Tonight the main focus will be in southeast Colorado where a 700 mb
shortwave will develop in the southwest flow and a cluster of storms
are expected to develop in the 4-5 pm timeframe.  These storms
should slowly move east into far western Kansas after 7 pm and
continue to migrate slowly northwest through the evening and
overnight hours.  Severe weather threat looks minimal as skew-t
sounds have little 0-6 km bulk shear (around 10-15 kts) and high
based storms with DCAPE values around 1100-1200 J/kg and low level
lapse rates at around 8-9 C/km.  CAPE structure above the LFC also
looks pretty narrow so the storms should mainly have a wind threat
of some gusts to 50 mph and little to no hail threat.  A second area
of thunderstorm activity will have to be monitored around the Hays
to Great Bend area through the early evening as a few CAMs have
development with a shortwave in the early evening however
confidence is low with widespread development and POPs are in the 10-
15% range in these areas.  Storms will progress slowly into
northwest Kansas during the overnight hours.

General trend during the workweek will be the continued stretch of
heat.  Short and mid term models show little deviation in the upper
ridge across the central and southern plains and NBM forecast values
of 25-75th percentile seem to have a 3-5 degree spread indicating
high probability of temperatures reaching into the upper 90s to
lower 100s.  Tuesday through Wednesday evening the upper trough in
the Pacific northwest will move into the northern plains.  This
trough is forecast to bring a weak cold front down into areas near
the I-70 corridor by Tuesday evening and stalling out through
Wednesday.  With the frontal boundary and modest lift in the mid
levels this will provide the next small probability of storms (20-
30%) north of the K-96 corridor for Tuesday and Wednesday night.
This is subject to change if the frontal boundary can move further
south so subsequent forecast discussion should make note if these
changes.

Ensembles toward the weekend show a stronger trough in the northern
plains that will drag a stronger cold front through Kansas during
the weekend.  The first taste of some relief from the heat could be
on Sunday with highs dropping back into the upper 80s and lower
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current
southeast winds in the 10-15 kt range gusting to 20-25 kts will
weaken after sunset to light and variable, followed by re-
strengthening to 10-15 kts again out of the southeast after
sunrise tomorrow. Some convective activity this evening is
also possible at all terminals, however confidence was too low
to include in the TAFs.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ031-046-065-066-
079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Springer