133
FXUS63 KDDC 211711
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minimal thunderstorm chances (20%) across central Kansas tonight
  and Saturday night.

- High temperatures back off a little over the weekend, but still
  above the seasonal average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of an upper level high centered over
the Four Corners Region. Near the surface, a nearly stalled frontal
boundary extends from extreme southeast Colorado down into western
Oklahoma.

Although drier conditions are likely across much of southwest Kansas
tonight, there are minimal thunderstorm chances (20%) across central
Kansas even with the SREF depicting a weakening north-northwest flow
aloft with the aforementioned upper level high shifting slightly east
out of the Four Corners Region into the Southern Rockies. Near the
surface, prevailing east-southeast upsloping will reinforce pooled
moisture north of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary to our south,
providing modest instability across central Kansas with MUCAPE values
upward of 1000-1500 J/kg. With this setup, thunderstorm development
is expected across western/central Nebraska late afternoon/early
evening with storms then spreading south-southeast into northern
Kansas overnight, potentially clipping our northeastern zones near
the I-70 corridor. This is suggested by a few CAMs while the HREF
hints at a 10 to 20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an
inch by early Saturday morning. A similar set up exists Saturday
night into early Sunday morning with little change to the larger
scale pattern.

Temperatures are forecast to remain a little above the seasonal
average tonight as prevailing east-southeast upsloping does little
to modify the air mass across the region. With the HREF pointing to
a 60 to 80% probability of temperatures dropping below 70F across
much of the area to less than a 10% probability of slipping below
70F in south central Kansas, look for lows mainly in the 60s(F)
overnight with the lower 70s(F) holding on in south central Kansas.
High temperatures back off a little Saturday with prevailing easterlies
drawing in slightly cooler air into western Kansas, lowering H85
temperatures down into the mid-20s(C) in central Kansas to the upper
20s(C) in extreme southwest Kansas. Expect afternoon highs generally
up into the 90s(F) with the NBM painting a 50 to 70% probability of
temperatures exceeding 90F in west central/central Kansas to only
a 60 to 80% probability of temperatures even topping 95F in southwest
Kansas into south central Kansas. Similar highs are expected Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1104 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Saturday. East-southeast winds 5 to 15kt with gusts up to 20kt
are forecast to persist through much of the period as high pressure
remains settled across the Central Plains.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson