354
FXUS63 KDDC 111112
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
512 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer temperatures today with widespread highs in the
  lower to mid 70s -- warmest out toward Elkhart.

- Elevated to Near-Critical fire weather conditions expected to
  develop, focused mainly on the late morning through early
  afternoon hours, west of Highway 83

- A low pressure system will approach the Central and Southern
  Plains late this weekend, however large uncertainties continue
  in the forecast for precipitation across our southwest Kansas
  region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The advertised warming downslope pattern was underway overnight, as
southwest to westerly winds have kept temperatures generally in the
mid 30s to mid 40s as of the 09Z (3 AM CST) observations. The robust
downslope plume was pushing out across Black Mesa, OK toward Elkhart
with temperatures in the lower 50s from Elkhart into Baca County,
CO. Given such a jump start on the downslope warming, the going warm
forecast for today is still on track with widespread 70s across much
of western Kansas. Warmest temperatures will be across the far
southwest and afternoon highs may flirt with 80F around Elkhart.

A downslope modified cold front will push south across western
Kansas today, which will have little or no impact on temperatures
given the substantial degree of downslope adiabatic warming to
offset any cold advection. Winds will become northwesterly and
increase in speed to 15 to 20 mph for a few hours late morning
through early afternoon, but by late afternoon, winds should settle
back down to around 10 mph or so -- becoming even weaker by sunset.

A low-amplitude ridge in the jet stream will move across the Rockies
and adjacent Great Plains Wednesday into Thursday, and the fairly
strong mid level winds across the Rockies will keep a leeside trough
in place across the High Plains. The MSLP gradient will be fairly
week and displaced fairly far to the east, more toward central and
eastern Kansas on Thursday. This pattern will keep western Kansas
warm -- well above climatological normal for mid-November across
western Kansas. It still appears Friday afternoon will be the
warmest day of the forecast period as the leeside trough further
deepens with southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the southern and
central Rockies -- ahead of the next deep trough.

All global models and ensemble systems still show a formidable upper
low developing across southern California, and tonight`s model runs
have shifted toward a solution where the upper low will become cut
off from the main polar jet as the northern branch trough continues
on to the east across the northern CONUS.  This scenario makes the
precipitation forecast even more difficult as models and ensemble
system still struggle with the strength, location, and timing of the
upper low as it lumbers across the Southwest and Southern Rockies
over the weekend. Nevertheless, there are some increasing signals of
the eventual upper low lifting out across the central CONUS to our
south, which would favor precipitation across southwest Kansas.
Given the continued instability of global model dProg/dt with
respect to the weekend upper low, expect shifts in the forecast as
far as precipitation chances/amounts/timing goes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A wind shift to the northwest will occur early in this TAF
period and increase to 14 to 18 knots sustained for a few hours
late in the morning through early afternoon. Winds will decrease
back down to below 12 knots late in the afternoon with light and
variable winds through the end of the period. Widespread VFR
flight category will continue in the dry air mass and downslope
conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 406 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A downslope-modified cold front will result in increased north-
northwest winds to 15 to 20 mph, gusts 25 to 30 mph, late this
morning generally west of Highway 83. This will coincide with
lowering relative humidity as temperatures rise through the 70s. The
resulting combination of increasing wind speeds and lowering RH will
lead to Elevated to Near-Critical fire weather conditions. Using the
00Z run of the HREF as guidance, the best window for Near-Critical
conditions would be roughly 17-20Z or so (11 AM to 2 PM CST). Winds
are expected to weaken by 3 PM, so the fairly short (generally three
hours or less) period of Near-Critical and perhaps localized
Critical conditions prevents the issuance of a Red Flag Warning,
although the incoming day shift this morning will need to monitor
observations closely between Highway 83 and the Colorado state line.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid