396
FXUS63 KDDC 171038
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
538 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm potential for far SW Kansas Thursday

- Scattered precipitation chances through the weekend with ample
  uncertainty

- A late week warm-up leading into a hot stretch next week with
  triple digit highs, especially Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

RAP mesoanalysis depicts a primarily zonal pattern aloft. Ensembles
have the mid and upper zonal flow continuing for the next few days.
As Wednesday`s shortwave moves across Kansas, lingering
storms/showers are slowly trekking across the forecast area. Also
with the weak system, a stalled cold pressure system have been
dropping temperatures 5-10 degrees. Thursday highs will fight to
warm back up following the cold front. Highs are forecast primarily
in the upper 70s-80s. CAMs have scattered storms developing in
southeastern Colorado Thursday afternoon. The disagreement begins on
their maintenance into the evening. The NAMNST is more bullish in an
organized solution with storms reaching much of the CWA. The more
recent HRRR runs keep with ensembles that most, if not all, will
stay contained within far SW Kansas. A strong CAP will likely be the
primary driver on how limited the storm expansion will reach. Even
the bullish NAMNST has limited shear (<30 KTs) in the model
soundings. Storms are not expected to reach severe thresholds, but
it can not be ruled out especially regarding far SW Kansas receiving
a marginally severe wind gust.

The next few days beyond Thursday will be mostly homogeneous. Highs
are forecast to return to the 90s with highs approaching and even
surpassing triple digit highs. Enough moisture currently over the
CWA combined with more moisture transport from the synoptic pattern
from the gulf will be conducive for precipitation potential.
Ensembles have most of the CWA at a 20-40% chance for precipitation
daily for the next few days. The severe threat is continued to only
be marginal if at all owing to the lack of upper-level dynamical
support and robust CAP. The start of next week is expected to be
especially hot, Monday specifically. Highs may reach up to 105
across the CWA. Heat precautions should be taken, most notably those
spending a lot of time outdoors. With the hot stretch it can be easy
to settle in with warm temperatures, but the danger for heat related
illnesses remain. Those in particularly vulnerable communities
should prepare for a hot stretch as SW Kansas is in the swing of
summer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

All terminals are expecting durations of lowered flight conditions
through the TAF period. Lingering storms are slowing approaching
near LBL and a TEMPO is included until they exit Kansas or
dissipate. Low cloud cover from the storms and low stratus is
expected through the whole period. Some uncertainty remains on how
low the ceilings reach, but continued low ceilings are expected. The
end of the period could see some showers/storms, but confidence is
not high enough for a prevailing group so it is covered by a
PROB30.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ