485
FXUS63 KDDC 040718
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
218 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minimal shower/thunderstorm chances (20-30%) return tonight.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures are forecast Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

WV imagery indicates a closed upper low shifting slowly southeast
through the Great Lakes Region with a northwest flow aloft prevailing
across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, high pressure is
building in across Nebraska into much of Kansas in wake of a weak
cold front advancing southward into the Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma.

Relatively dry conditions are forecast very early in the period as
the SREF points to a closed upper low in the Great Lakes Region
lifting slowly northeast into Canada while a broad surface high
slides southeast through the Central Plains. However, minimal
thunderstorm chances (20-30%) return late tonight/early Friday
morning as an upper level shortwave trough drops southeast through
the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest late this afternoon/early
evening, sending an attendant cold front southward into western/central
Kansas late tonight. Despite minimal instability with MLCAPE values
generally under 1000 J/kg as suggested by the RAP13, some
shower/thunderstorm development is expected as H5 vort maxima
ejecting east out of the Colorado Rockies interacts with increased
forcing associated with the aforementioned frontal boundary pushing
through the area. As indicated by the HREF, the best chance for
precipitation is projected across west central Kansas into central
Kansas in vicinity of the I-70 corridor where there is a 20-40%
probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch by daybreak Friday
morning. A secondary round is forecast later during the day Friday
slightly southward of I-70 with the HREF painting a 50-70% probability
of 6-hr QPF only topping 0.1 of an inch by early Friday evening.

Fairly seasonal temperatures are forecast today as departing surface
high pressure quickly brings low level southerlies back to the region,
helping push H85 temperatures back above 20C in central Kansas to
near 30C in extreme southwest Kansas. With the HREF indicating a
40-60% probability of temperatures topping 80F in south central Kansas
to better than a 90% probability of exceeding 90F out near the Colorado
border, look for wide ranging afternoon highs today from the lower/mid
80s(F) in south central Kansas to the mid/upper 90s(F) in extreme
southwest Kansas. A drastic drop in temperatures is expected Friday
in wake of a strong frontal passage late tonight/early Friday morning
with H85 temperatures falling to, if not slightly below 10C, by late
Friday afternoon. The HREF shows only a 10-30% probability of temperatures
even topping 60F by late afternoon, likely in an axis where rainfall
is projected from portions of southwest Kansas into central Kansas
to a 40-60% probability of temperatures exceeding 60F elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

A developing southeasterly upslope flow and high relative humidity
will create conditions favorable for low level stratus development
across portions of southwest Kansas early this morning as well as
areas of fog, resulting in potential MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in vicinity
of KGCK, KLBL, and KDDC generally after 09-12Z. Any stratus that
develops is expected to lift/scatter out by mid-day. Light east-
northeast winds overnight are forecast to turn southerly 10 to 20kt
generally after 15-17Z as surface high pressure slides southeast
through the Central Plains while a developing surface low deepens
in southeast Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson