878
FXUS63 KDDC 032332
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
532 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future,
  through at least November 12th.

- Near record warmth Tuesday afternoon, in the upper 70s and
  lower 80s.

- A series of dry weak cold fronts will continue, with
  occasional wind shifts, but no major temperatures fluctuations
  are expected.

- Stronger cold fronts are expected this weekend, with hard
  killing freezes expected next Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

A strong midlevel anticyclone was centered over Texas at midday,
with benign zonal flow to its north across Kansas. Infrared
satellite imagery indicated scattered cirrus approaching from
the west, embedded in the zonal flow. Surface observations
depicted elevated northeast winds behind the latest dry cold
front passage, with the expectation for these winds to subside
quickly toward sunset. Afternoon temperatures will be near early
November normals in the 60s.

All models show strong warming Tuesday, beneath continued quiet
dry zonal flow aloft. The question is how warm we will get.
Guidance forecasts 850 mb temperatures to soar to an impressive
19-20C, but a very weak surface pressure gradient will result
in weak winds, poor mixing and limited downslope contributions.
Record highs for November 4th are in the lower 80s, but many
locations will have difficulty achieving the records with the
lack of downslope mixing. The record high at DDC is 81/1891,
with a forecast high of 78. At any rate, Tuesday will be one of
the most beautiful days of the year, with mild temperatures and
light winds.

The next dry cold front passage is expected around sunrise
Wednesday, followed by elevated/gusty northeast winds for the
first half of the day. NAM guidance is too weak with these
winds, with 12z MAV guidance near 20 kts sustained for a few
hours being much more reasonable. NBM also looks several degrees
too warm Wednesday, with afternoon temperatures returning to
normal in the lower to mid 60s. Return flow establishes by early
Thursday, only for another weak northerly wind shift and cold
front Thursday afternoon. Another beautiful fall day Friday,
with few clouds, light winds and mild temperatures.

Stronger, but still dry, cold fronts are expected over the
upcoming weekend, in response to an amplifying trough over the
Great Lakes. Midlevel ridging will build over Arizona at the
same time, ensuring strong northwest midlevel flow over Kansas,
and no hope of any moisture or precipitation. Strong north winds
are expected Saturday, along the lines of MEX guidance and much
stronger than NBM. At least two strong/killing freezes appear
probable Sunday and especially Monday morning, as reinforcements
of cold dry Canadian air arrive. Ensemble consensus places
surface ridging near 1027 mb over Kansas Sunday morning,
followed by another stronger high near 1037 mb Monday morning.
NBM guidance for Sunday/Monday morning (in the 30s) is too warm.
12z MEX guidance is much better, well down into the 20s, and in
fact some air temperatures in the teens are likely northeast
zones next Monday morning.

Ridging over Arizona Sunday will phase eastward to the Rockies
Monday and onto the plains next Tuesday, resulting in another
strong warming trend. This aligns with the Climate Prediction
Center`s 70-80% probability of above normal temperatures during
the 10-16 November time range. Southwest Kansas will remain dry
for the foreseeable future. 12z GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles
are impressively dry, with zero QPF through at least November
12th.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Easterly winds early this evening will become light
southeasterly, allowing some marginal moisture to creep back
north through the night. HREF probabilistic visibility fields
suggest patchy fog development, particularly around HYS and
perhaps DDC terminals, so we will introduce 1SM visibility at
HYS early Tuesday morning and 4SM visibility at DDC. This is a
fairly low confidence forecast, but there is enough of a signal
to at least bring forecast visibility down at both HYS and DDC.
Otherwise, VFR flight category should prevail and any
fog/reduction in visibility should improve a couple hours after
sunrise.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid