110
FXUS63 KDDC 011920
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
120 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...Updated Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy Sunday with increasing south winds.

- Showers and thunderstorms expected early Monday, with locally
  heavy rain expected, and strong to severe wind gusts possible.

- Windy warm and dry for most of SW KS Monday. Severe
  thunderstorms near Barber County for a few hours Monday
  evening.

- Very windy and much cooler with widespread rain expected
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Midday surface observations depicted widespread stratus across
all of SW KS, with elevated southeast winds maintaining moisture
advection. Temperatures will continue to struggle in the upper
50s and lower 60s through 4 pm, with SW KS remaining dry through
6 pm.

Stratus will continue through tonight. A strong low level jet
will establish through the night, averaging near 60 mph at
2k feet. Strong moisture advection, mixing and moisture
advection will hold temperatures steady within a few degrees of
60 through sunrise. This is about 25 degrees above normal for
early November.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
after 6 pm across Colorado and New Mexico, in response to the
first strong wave of forcing for ascent. 12z ARW offers a good
solution, showing linear convection reaching near the Colorado
border about midnight, then reaching the US 283 corridor
(central CWA) about 3 am Monday. With a strong low level jet and
related strong deep layer shear, and adequate CAPE to near
1000 J/kg, some strong to severe storms are expected overnight.
Primary risk will be wind gusts of 50-60 mph, as the low level
jet momentum is mixed to the ground by thunderstorm downdrafts.
Given a saturated boundary layer and low LCLs, a weak tornado or
two, probably embedded within any QLCS, is plausible, but
certainly not likely or expected. Thunderstorms are expected to
exit the southeast zones quickly Monday morning.

Primary trough axis near the Four Corners 6 am Monday will
remain quite progressive, near Elkhart 6 pm Monday. The
cyclone`s dry slot will control most of SW KS`s weather Monday,
with a clearing sky, strong southwest winds, and as such, much
warmer afternoon temperatures in the 70s. Most of SW KS will be
dry for most of daylight Monday. A severe risk remains apparent
near Barber County for a few hours Monday afternoon/evening,
where storms can recover from morning convection ahead of the
progressive triple point. Any severe threat across/near Barber
county will be brief, before being pushed eastward quickly by
the progressive trough.

Surface and midlevel cyclones will exit near Barber county
Monday evening, allow a strong cold front to race southward
through SW KS with intense north winds - Monday night through
Tuesday morning. Despite the nocturnal timing working against
mixing, northwest winds will be intense through sunrise Tuesday,
easily gusting to at least 50 mph. NBM wind grids are about
5-7 kts weaker than the preferred 12z MAV guidance, especially
along the preferred US 83 corridor. High wind warnings may be
required.

Subsidence will prevail Tuesday behind the exiting trough, with
a clearing sky, diminishing northwest winds, and cooler
afternoon temperatures in the 50s. Much cooler air, much more
typical for November, will arrive Wednesday morning, in the mid
to upper 30s. Some areas of frost are likely in the coldest
northwest zones, but incoming high pressure continues to look
weak and will be of Pacific origin, continuing to work against
a hard/killing freeze.

Another small weak shortwave is forecast to arrive Wednesday and
Thursday. This system will be moisture starved, nonetheless some
scattered rain showers are expected with the passing of this
system midweek. No impacts expected.

After a pleasant fall Friday, a stronger, but dry, cold front
passage is expected sometime next Saturday. This cooler air mass
may be cold enough to deliver another freeze next Monday morning
November 9th.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1110 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Surface observations at 1645z Sun depicted widespread stratus
across all of SW KS, reducing flight categories to IFR/LIFR.
High confidence stratus will hold through at least 06z Mon,
with ceilings creating poor flying weather. A line of showers
and thunderstorms is expected to arrive late tonight, with model
consensus placing the storms at/near the airports 06-09z Mon.
Placed convective TEMPO group at LBL, where confidence in
convective impacts is highest. South winds will be elevated and
strong throughout this TAF period, gusting 30-35 kts. A strong
low level jet is forecast 00-12z Mon, with southwest winds near
60 kts at 2k feet AGL.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner