052
FXUS63 KDDC 300644
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
144 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rains are forecast for today, tapering off from south to
  north during the day; and a flood watch remains in effect.

- After the steady rain ends, a few small tornadoes are possible
  between 1 pm and 8 pm.

- Another round of rain is expected Thursday.

- The coolest temperatures of the season are forecast for
  Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The previous forecast of heavy rain is still on track; and some
locations have already received 1 to 2". The remnants of
Hurricane Polo will pass from south to north today, with the
steady rains ending during mid morning (Liberal), midday (Dodge
City) and late afternoon (Hays). Given the extremely anomalous
precipitable water values for this time of year, along with the
remnants of Hurricane Polo and upper level trough, excessive
rains are likely. Thus, a the flood watch remains in effect
through Thursday. Given the heavy rains in Pawnee County
Tuesday, this county was added to the watch.

As drier air arrives at mid levels in the wake of the heavy rain,
at least some insolation will allow for destabilization as
temperatures warm from the upper 60s at sunrise into the mid
70s. Surface based t-storm development should happen provided
that this modest warming does occur. Given the tropical-like low
level airmass and lack of a mid level capping inversion, it
won`t take much heating for storm initiation. Expect initial
storms to the south and west of Dodge City by mid day, with the
storm chances shifting to the north and east during the
afternoon and evening. Given the expected low cloud bases, with
temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to near
70, along with a veering wind profile and adequate low level
SRH, a few small tornadoes are likely. Backed winds to the
northeast of the surface low pressure could enhance low level
SRH. Although violent tornadoes are not expected in this
pattern; even a small tornado from a miniature, low-topped
supercell can do significant damage, albeit in a very narrow
swath.

Even after the heavier rain is over, the upper level low will
move very slowly so that additional light to moderate rain is
forecast for Thursday. Rain totals through Thursday could reach
3 to 4" or even locally higher, especially for locations that
received heavy rains Tuesday. 75-90th percentiles of the various
ensembles support these localized, higher-end amounts.

Surface high pressure will move southward out of Canada into the
plains by Friday. With light winds and clear skies Friday night,
temperatures will fall into the 40s, with some readings near 40
in west central Kansas. Of course, these readings are not that
unusual for this time of year.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The remnants of Hurricane Polo along with an approaching upper
level storm system will lead to widespread rain, occasionally
heavy, through 15z at KLBL, 18Z at KDDC and KGCK and 21z at
KHYS. Some thunder is possible; but will leave out of the
forecast until certainty is higher since we are dealing with a
12 hour window. CIGS and visibilities are uncertain; but MVFR
conditions will likely prevail. However, there may be periods of
IFR CIGS in the heavier rain. Isolated t-storms are expected
after 18z; but confidence is too low to include in the TAF for
now.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-
061>065-074>078-084>087.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch