349
FXUS63 KDDC 212130
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
430 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot August afternoons will continue through early next week,
  with high temperatures several degrees above late August
  normals.

- Rain chances will remain minimal through the weekend, with
  most locations remaining dry. Rain chances are expected to
  improve next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains downstream of an upper level high
centered over the Four Corners Region. Near the surface, a
nearly stalled frontal boundary extends from extreme southeast
Colorado down into western Oklahoma.

Although drier conditions are likely across much of southwest
Kansas tonight, there are minimal thunderstorm chances (20%)
across central Kansas even with the SREF depicting a weakening
north-northwest flow aloft with the aforementioned upper level
high shifting slightly east out of the Four Corners Region into
the Southern Rockies. Near the surface, prevailing east-
southeast upsloping will reinforce pooled moisture north of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary to our south, providing modest
instability across central Kansas with MUCAPE values upward of
1000-1500 J/kg. With this setup, thunderstorm development is
expected across western/central Nebraska late afternoon/early
evening with storms then spreading south-southeast into northern
Kansas overnight, potentially clipping our northeastern zones
near the I-70 corridor. This is suggested by a few CAMs while
the HREF hints at a 10 to 20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding
0.1 of an inch by early Saturday morning. A similar set up
exists Saturday night into early Sunday morning with little
change to the larger scale pattern.

Temperatures are forecast to remain a little above the seasonal
average tonight as prevailing east-southeast upsloping does
littleto modify the air mass across the region. With the HREF
pointing to a 60 to 80% probability of temperatures dropping
below 70F across much of the area to less than a 10% probability
of slipping below 70F in south central Kansas, look for lows
mainly in the 60s(F) overnight with the lower 70s(F) holding on
in south central Kansas. High temperatures back off a little
Saturday with prevailing easterlies drawing in slightly cooler
air into western Kansas, lowering H85 temperatures down into the
mid-20s(C) in central Kansas to the upper 20s(C) in extreme
southwest Kansas. Expect afternoon highs generally up into the
90s(F) with the NBM painting a 50 to 70% probability of
temperatures exceeding 90F in west central/central Kansas to
only a 60 to 80% probability of temperatures even topping 95F in
southwest Kansas into south central Kansas. Similar highs are
expected Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period,
with VFR/SKC, scattered cirrus, and light east/southeast winds
prevailing.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner