066
FXUS63 KDDC 011115
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
615 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More heavy rain is expected today for parts of central and
  southwest Kansas, with some potential for flooding.

- The coolest temperatures of the season are forecast for
  Saturday morning, with lows in the 40s.

- After today, a stretch of dry weather will last through at
  least next weekend, with warm temperatures for all of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Weak upslope northeast winds will allow for fog formation this
morning at KDDC and KGCK, which may be slow to burn off today
given the moist low levels, cloud cover and upslope winds. An
upper level low and associated 700-300mb cold pool will move
northeastward into south central Kansas today, with temperatures
in that layer cooling about 5C from today`s values. A cold
front will move across southwest Kansas late this morning
through late this afternoon, with north winds gusting as high as
35 mph. T-storms will form along the front and also ahead of
the front given the mid to upper level cooling and surface based
CAPE values of at least 1000 j/kg. Low level shear will be
absent today as winds will be light to easterly from the surface
up through 500mb. Better high level shear may allow for some
persistent updrafts, with some potential for small hail. In the
wake of the front, storms will be elevated, with a transition
to stratiform rain that will taper off from northwest to
southeast. The flood watch was maintained for today despite the
lack of flooding so far. Given the saturated conditions and
expected slow storm movement, additional heavy rains could lead
to flooding in the watch area. Temperatures won`t get above the
60s for locations that have a frontal passage by mid to late
morning, with 70s across south central Kansas. With the strong
north winds, it will feel chilly.

Lows are expected to be in the 40s across far western Kansas
tonight after skies clear, with 40s across most of central and
western Kansas by Saturday morning. A warming trend will
commence by the weekend, with highs warming into the 80s by
early next week. All of the ensemble means show the mid to high
level westerlies across the northern tier of states, with weak
upper ridging across the southern Rockies and western high
plains. The warm pattern will stick around through at least next
Saturday and possibly into Sunday before the next cold front
arrives.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Surface observations show LIFR cigs across all terminals early
Thursday morning, along with some IFR vis at GCK and HYS where
some patchy fog has developed. Over the next several hours,
little to no improvement is expected as another round of
widespread rainfall with embedded thunderstorms moves through
southwest KS, accompanied by an increase in winds out of the
north into the 18-23 kt range gusting to 28-33 kts.
Precipitation will begin to erode from west to east this
afternoon/evening, with cigs recovering to VFR at all terminals
except LBL. This will be followed by a relaxing of the winds to
aob 12 kts by 03-06Z Friday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-
061>065-074>078-084>087.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Springer