401
FXUS63 KDDC 310411
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1111 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mild Halloween eve with drier conditions by Trick-or-Treat
  time. Evening temperatures in the 50s to 60s.

- Drier and warmer Sunday, with highs in the upper 60s to lower
  70s and lows in the 40s to 50s.

- A progressive upper level wave moves across the region Monday
  evening into Tuesday morning. More light showers along with
  some breezy to gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

KDDC WSR-88D shows that the far southeast counties have
received the most radar estimated rainfall amounts. This
matches with local observations down by Medicine Lodge, showing
the highest amounts. Showers will continue through the morning
hours. Areal coverage should diminish by sunrise. Otherwise,
much of the day should be dry. Mild highs are expected today
with values peaking in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The NBM is
cranking out pops across the eastern zones this afternoon.
Several CAMs, however, are not that impressive with any
additional shower activity. In general, Trick-or-Treat time
should be generally dry. Temperatures in the evening will be
mild with a range of 50s in the north to 60s in the south. Winds
will be slightly stronger today with a breezy SE to S wind 12
to 22 mph. Lows tonight will range from the 40s in the west to
the 50s in the east.

For Sunday, models are indicating shortwave ridging developing
across the region. This ridging is upstream of a large open
upper level trof that will move across the western United States
during the daytime hours. This ridging will support the notion
of a drier forecast and warmer highs. Highs should peak from the
mid to upper 60s in the north to the lower 70s in the south.
Another day of breezy SE to S winds are expected as we close out
the weekend.

Long range models and their ensemble counterparts are still
indicating the passage of an open and progressive wave Monday
evening into Tuesday morning. The sfc low among several
ensemble members is displaced well to our north. This quick
hitting system with the low well to our north tends to favor
light precipitation amounts and the heavier precipitation axis
displaced well to the east of southwest Kansas. There should be
some cyclogenesis with the sfc low during the day, so the
overall windfield and pressure gradient should be more
impressive than what we have seen as of late. Gusty southerly
winds are expected prefrontal with gusty northerly winds
postfrontal. SPC has an area outlined Monday, but it looks like
the brunt of the warm sector and related instability will be
east/southeast of the FA.

Beyond Tuesday, ensembles are forecasting more shortwave ridging
Wednesday with a drier forecast and a continuation of mild
temperatures. The uneventful weather pattern looks to continue
for the rest of the business week with generally dry conditions
and mild temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Light showers will prevail across the terminals through the
early morning hours. Areal activity should diminish after
sunrise. Additional shower activity may be possible later today,
however, areal coverage should be quite limited. Will not
include in the TAFs for now given the unlikely aviation impact.
Otherwise, considerable moisture in the atmosphere will keep
cigs reduced primarily in the MVFR to occasionally IFR category
through much of the TAF pd. Otherwise, winds will be slightly
stronger today with SE/S winds 10-20 kt during the daytime.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden