140
FXUS63 KDDC 310434
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1134 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginally severe storms may impact far southwest Kansas late
  tonight

- Weak "cool front" moves through late tonight into the morning
  hours

- Near normal temperatures over the weekend, hot again next
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

There are a few ways to continue saying that the synoptic pattern
aloft remains unchanged with a large and blocked high pressure
system situated over the south-central CONUS. Despite this a lower-
level low pressure system is still present in northeast Colorado and
enabling convection along the western Great Plains. This is the only
convection, and pressingly notable weather, for the near future for
the CWA. Outside of normally seasonal heat, impactful weather is not
forecast currently.

Looking at tonights convection, it comes in two parts. The first is
currently ongoing in extreme SW Kansas and into the panhandles.
Outside of in the Oklahoma panhandle, no strong winds (>45 mph) have
been reported It is expected to stay that way unless a stronger cell
is able to initiate, or a portion of organized convection can
develop a cold pool. At least for the time being, neither of these
things are expected to develop. With only modest CAPE and shear (750
J/kg and 30 KTs), the severe threat is limited with most of the
storms trending downward. The second mode of storms tonight comes
with an MCS and associated cold front coming out of Nebraska. Model
runs in the previous days suggested that the complex could clip
Hays, but the last 24 hours, CAM runs have trended away from that
greatly. However, some CAMs have varying amounts of convection
initiating along the southwestern flank that may extend into the
forecast area near Hays. This will warrant monitoring for severe
potential, however runs into the same problem as the rest of the
convection with not the most supportive environment. Once the storms
dissolve and the cold front passes through later tonight, the
pattern becomes benign.

This weekend`s highs behind the cold front is forecast to be in the
90s. Into next week, highs will tick up back towards the 100 degree
mark. The apparent temperatures on Thursday/Friday rise up towards
the 102-105 degree line, and may require a Heat Advisory. This is
especially true as the long-ranged ensembles have been a few degrees
too cool with this pattern. If the previous few weeks continue in
this manner. Apparent temperatures as hot as 110 degrees are
possible in the southeastern zones near the Oklahoma border. The
same long ranged ensembles tease a low probability of precipitation
on Wednesday night strictly near the Colorado border. With the low
chances (<20%) and temporal uncertainty, it is just something to be
aware of at this stage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Currently isolated convection blankets SW Kansas. This convection is
forecast to trend downward over the coming hours. While the impact
on all sites can not be ruled out, only LBL has a 30% chance to see
storms, thus the PROB30 group. Even then, impact will be brief and
minimal. Later tonight into the morning, a weak cold front is
forecast to pass through shifting winds out of the north at 10-15
KTs. Other than the convection, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail for all sites.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ