340
FXUS63 KDDC 051037
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
537 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and noticeably hotter Friday afternoon with breezy south
  winds.

- Showers and thunderstorms southeast of Dodge City Saturday
  night, with no severe weather expected.

- A rapid warming trend is expected Sunday through midweek, with
  near record high temperatures near 100 by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A quiet early summer evening was in progress, with light winds
and scattered cirrus.

Friday afternoon will be noticeably hotter, with a net warming
of +2C at 850 mb, and efficient mixing with south winds of
15-25 mph. Expecting lower 90s to be common this afternoon,
which is several degrees above normal for early June. 00z NAM
deepens lee cyclone to near 997 mb over Baca county Colorado at
4 pm, which will support modestly gusty south winds. Weak
subtropical closed 580 dm midlevel cyclone near Far West Texas
will spread showers and thunderstorms northward through Texas
and Oklahoma Friday afternoon, but this activity will remain
south of SW KS. Moisture and instability will remain substantial
across SW KS, with dewpoints near 60, and CAPE near 2000 J/kg,
but with no forcing mechanisms present, Friday`s forecast will
be dry.

Model guidance tracks the midlevel cyclone northward through
West Texas Saturday. Forcing for ascent acting on a very moist
atmosphere will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across Texas, Oklahoma, and the Texas panhandle through
Saturday. As the weak midlevel low tracks into SW KS Saturday
afternoon/night, some of the rain showers and embedded thunder
will enter the southeast zones, primarily southeast of Dodge
City. NBM probability of measurable rain (QPF > 0.01 inch)
ranges from near 0% northwest zones, to 30% at DDC, to near
80% at Medicine Lodge. Locally heavy rainfall will occur across
the southeast zones in a moist environment, but severe weather
is not expected. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler
Saturday afternoon, in the upper 80s.

Midlevel cyclone over SW KS 7 am Sunday is modelled to eject to
the Missouri valley 7 pm Sunday. Subsidence behind this
departing shortwave will clear the sky from west to east Sunday,
and Sunday will mark the beginning of a pronounced warming
trend. Elevated south winds will return temperatures to the
lower 90s Sunday afternoon.

Global models remain in agreement with rising heights and
midlevel high pressure strengthening over the plains early to
midweek next week. NBM captures the resulting warming trend
correctly, forecasting upper 90s Monday, and 100-102 each
afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday. With time by next Thursday,
flow across North America will become more meridional, as a
strong longwave trough establishes over the northern Rockies,
with a strong upper high over the Mississippi valley. Strong
south winds will result about a week from now. Thunderstorms
will likely return next Friday, as some of the trough`s energy
overspreads the plains dryline.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.
Winds in general should increase to 12 kts with gusts up to 20
kts from the late morning through the early evening. A weak cold
front in northwest Kansas may spark a few isolated storms that
could affect the HYS terminal between 23Z-01Z however the
probability of a storm affecting the terminal is low (less than
20%).

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Tatro