496
FXUS63 KDDC 021812
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
112 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread morning low stratus clouds will be replaced by a
  beautiful Tuesday afternoon with sunshine, mild temperatures
  and light north winds.

- Temporarily much warmer Wednesday ahead of a cold front, with
  many locations warming into the lower 90s.

- A cold front Wednesday evening will bring cooler temperatures
  Thursday.

- A much stronger cold front is scheduled Friday morning, with
  Friday afternoon temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s.

- Rainfall with the cold fronts will be very limited, and most
  of Southwest Kansas will be dry this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery depicted widespread
stratus over southern Nebraska into northern Kansas at midnight.
This stratus is expected to spread southwest into much of
SW KS through sunrise Tuesday. Widespread fog is not
anticipated, but this will be monitored given the continued
moist soils and boundary layer.

Once the morning stratus erodes, Tuesday promises to be a
fantastic late summer day with sunshine, mild temperatures in
the upper 70s and lower 80s, and light north winds. All of SW KS
will remain dry through Tuesday night.

Midlevel ridge axis will remain parked over the Great Basin and
Rockies Tuesday and Wednesday, maintaining NWly midlevel flow
over SW KS. An unseasonably strong 547 dm closed low is forecast
near Lake Superior 7 pm Wednesday, with the associated cold
front arriving in SW KS Wednesday afternoon. Exact frontal
timing will determine precise temperatures, but current thinking
is SWly downslope and prefrontal compression will make for a
much warmer afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front. 00z NAM
supports this warmer solution Wednesday with a slower front
advancement. Many locations south of the front at peak heating
will warm into the lower 90s, with the warmest 00z MAV guidance
suggesting highs in the mid 90s. Green vegetation and standing
water will hold temperatures down a few degrees from the warmest
guidance. Convergence along the advancing cold front is
expected to encourage thunderstorm development across/near the
southeast zones Wednesday evening, where SPC 5-15% wind/hail
probability is appropriate. CAPE/shear combination will be
supportive of at least marginal supercells over the southeast
counties Wednesday evening.

Thursday will be a few degrees cooler behind this first weaker
cold front, but south winds will return quickly Thursday, with
afternoon temperatures remaining in the lower to mid 80s. A much
stronger cold front remains consistently timed in the guidance
for Friday morning. Models depict NEly 850 mb winds of 20-30
kts, and expect post frontal northeast winds Friday to be
stronger than NBM guidance. Shower and thunderstorm generation
on this cold front is rather inconsistent in the model guidance,
but NBM pops currently align with the drier solutions. Certainly
Friday will be much cooler, the question is how much cooler,
with ECMWF cooling 850 mb temperatures to 11-13C range. NBM
continues to trend cooler Friday, now down to the lower 70s, but
60s may be more realistic if stratus holds much of the day.

A cool 1020 mb Canadian surface high is forecast to build south
into the central plains Saturday morning, delivering the coolest
temperatures of the young fall season. Lower 50s will be common
sunrise Saturday, with the typically colder locales falling to
the upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Light north winds will gradually shift to southwesterly
overnight as a surface trough forms in the lee of the Rockies.
A cold front will approach after the end of the period, with
winds shifting to the north. VFR conditions are predicted to
persist. There is a small chance of t-storms at KDDC after the
TAF period as the cold front approaches.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Finch