485
FXUS63 KDDC 161852
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
152 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tonight`s thunderstorm complex is forecast to track south of
  last night`s system, affecting mainly areas south of a Johnson
  to Meade line.

- A drying out period Monday and Tuesday with highs upper 90s to
  around 100 degrees Tuesday afternoon.

- Another cold front with increased chances of thunderstorm
  activity Wednesday Night/early Thursday, but severe weather
  and/or heavy rainfall potential is still a bit unclear for
  southwest Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Early this afternoon, much of southwest Kansas was cooler and more
humid following last night`s thunderstorm system. Cooler northeast
winds prevailed this afternoon, but these moist winds were become
more out of the east toward the Colorado line and on west toward the
Front Range of Colorado where tonight`s mesoscale convective system
(MCS) will develop. Tonight`s system will track farther south
tonight vs. last night as cloud-bearing 300-500mb winds are more out
of the northwest. This, combined with best low level moisture
transport vectors from the northern Texas Panhandle into far
southeastern Colorado will really favor the Panhandles for tonight`s
heavy rainfall potential. Thus, much of our southwest Kansas region
will likely miss out out more rainfall with the exception of areas
generally south of a Johnson to Meade line which is the only area we
will carry 60+ POPs tonight.

As we head into Monday and Tuesday, a Pacific jet streak will
advance across northern California and Nevada...eventually reaching
the Northern Rockies of Idaho, Montana, and northern Wyoming,
inducing a leeside trough/surface low well to our north-northwest.
As a result, the focus for thunderstorm activity will shift back
north into western Nebraska (Monday evening) and across eastern
Nebraska and northeastern Kansas Tuesday evening. As southwest
Kansas dries out (for those that received 1"+ rain), we will warm
back up such that by Tuesday, a return to upper 90s/near 100 degree
highs are likely. Given how much rain fell across our western
counties (along/west of Highway 83), Tuesday highs will probably
fall a little short of 100 degrees, but the humidity could push heat
indices above 100 instead.

As we head into Wednesday and beyond, another cold front will push
south across Kansas, with perhaps even cooler air than today`s
front. Much will depend, however, on how much of this cooler air
mass is enhanced by remnant convective outflow from a potential large
MCS rolling across the northeastern portion of Kansas. After that,
global models and ensemble systems are showing a fairly sharp upper
level ridge amplification centered across the Rockies with much of
Kansas in between the sharp ridge axis and a deep trough axis
farther east. This may make temperature forecast a little more
difficult for a few days Wednesday through roughly Saturday,
depending on if/how strong a backdoor cold front out of the
northeast moves into southwest Kansas. The latest ECMWF model shows
this ridge flattening with increased hot southwesterly downslope
winds from roughly Sunday into the Day 8-10 period, so it would not
appear we would be done with 100-degree heat yet.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Prevailing winds were light out of the north to northeast at the
onset of this TAF period, which pushed the effective frontal
zone well south into western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.
Thus, tonight`s expected thunderstorm complex will remain pretty
far south, however since dewpoints remain high across southwest
Kansas and post-frontal winds become upslope later this
afternoon and tonight, the northern periphery of thunderstorm
activity could still impact LBL and perhaps even GCK and DDC, so
we will keep some PROB30 in the TAF for showers and
thunderstorms. Otherwise, aviation weather will remain fairly
tranquil this period with lingering MVFR stratocumulus clouds
thinning out to VFR.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid