766
FXUS63 KDDC 031600
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1000 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwest winds midday Tuesday will weaken rapidly late
  Tuesday afternoon. The sky will also clear rapidly near
  sunset.

- Strong radiational cooling will deliver seasonably cold
  temperatures in the 30s Wednesday morning.

- Rain expected late Wednesday through early Thursday.


- Cool temperatures in the 50s Thursday afternoon will be
  followed by a warming trend Friday through Monday.

- After the rain early Thursday, a long dry stretch is expected,
  with no precipitation through at least November 12th.

- There are no hard/killing freezes in sight through at least
  the next 10 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Earlier this evening an upper level trough was located over
western Kansas. Under this upper level trough a strong cold
front was crossing southwest Kansas with surface observations
already reporting wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph reported behind
this front at of 04z. This cold front will continue to cross all
of southwest Kansas by early Tuesday morning as this upper
level trough moves slowly east/northeast across Kansas. The
strong gusty winds behind this front will continue through
Tuesday and usher in some colder air into the area which will
result in afternoon temperatures Tuesday afternoon being around
15 degrees cooler compared to the highs that occurred across
southwest Kansas on earlier today (Monday). Given these
temperatures and strong gusty winds expected through the day it
will feel colder than this Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon wind
chills in the 40s/lower 50s will be possible for many locations
west or north of Dodge City. The ongoing convection across
portions of southwest Kansas early this morning from the wrap
around moisture and enhanced lift near the 500mb deformation
zone just W/NW of the upper trough will taper off from southwest
to northeast by noon.

Very windy conditions late tonight and Tuesday with wind gusts
of 45 to 55 mph possible through at least noon Tuesday. An upper
level trough crossing western Kansas will deepen a surface low
over Central Kansas overnight and early Tuesday. This will
result in tight surface pressure gradient over southwest Kansas.
This combined with forecast 850mb north northwest winds of 45
to 50 knots indicated the potential for wind gusts to be
stronger than what the latest NBM guidance suggest, at least
through 18z Tuesday. BUFR soundings momentum transfer and even
the REFS 10m wind gusts both are in agreement with the potential
stronger winds/wind gusts. Based on this combined with the 04z
surface observations behind this cold front it appears the
stronger winds will be more reasonable. Have therefore favored
the stronger 75th percentile of the NBM for winds over the next
24-36 hours.

Temperatures falling back into the 30 to 35 degree range early
Wednesday morning west and north of the Dodge City area. Early
Tuesday night the gusty northwest winds which ushered in the
cold air into southwest Kansas Monday night and Tuesday will
decrease to less than 10 mph as the surface pressure gradient
weakens across southwest Kansas. Clear skies and light winds
Tuesday night will create a favorable environment for
temperatures to easily fall back well into the 30s by early
Wednesday morning with frost or even a few locations waking up
to temperatures around 32, mainly west and north of the Dodge
City area.

Seasonal Temperatures late week with a 40-70% chance for light
rain Wednesday night. As our Monday storm system moves east of
the area Tuesday and progressive, weaker, upper level trough
will take aim on western Kansas mid week. Ensembles were in good
agreement with weak forcing and limited moisture will be
present ahead of this next system as the upper wave quickly
crossing western Kansas Wednesday night. As a result the
ensemble clusters have only a 20-40% chance for 24 hour
rainfall totals ending at 6pm Thursday to be greater than 0.25
inches. A surface boundary/weak cold front will briefly move
into southwest Kansas following this upper trough but then
quickly lift back north. This will keep temperatures in the
50s/lower 60s Wednesday and Thursday and then warm back into the
mid 60s by Friday/Saturday as an upper level ridge exits the
Rockies and moves out into the plains. These temperatures late
week are near the seasonal normals for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1000 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Surface observations at 16z Tue depicted strong northwest winds
gusting 35-40 kts, along with widespread broken/overcast MVFR
stratus ceilings. These winds and ceilings will continue through
about 21z Tue, followed by a rapid diminishing of the wind, and
a rapidly clearing sky, by 00z Wed. Excellent flying weather is
expected 00-18z Wed, with VFR/SKC and light winds. Lowering
ceilings are expected after 00z Thu, with areas of rain
00-12z Thu.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner