247
FXUS63 KDDC 132200
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A variety of temperatures Sunday afternoon as frontal boundary
  bisects SW KS, and low clouds erode.

- Unseasonably hot with near record highs Monday; strong
  southwest winds gusting over 40 mph.

- Next cold front arrives Tuesday, providing another strong
  temperature gradient.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected behind the cold front
  Tuesday night; some storms may be strong and produce locally
  heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Midday satellite imagery depicted remaining stratus dissolving
rapidly, and surface observations outlined the warm front making
quick progress northward into Kansas. Expecting a large
temperature gradient to result by 4 pm, ranging from 80 north to
near 100 along the Oklahoma border. Mesoanalysis outlined
significant instability south of the warm front, and 12z NAM
forecasts CAPE to reach near 3000 J/kg by peak heating,
supported by dewpoints well into the 60s. Models have also
reduced the amount of convective inhibition at peak heating,
with 700 mb temperatures a tad cooler. As such, there will
likely be at least an attempt at an isolated thunderstorm Sunday
evening, particularly toward sunset as the low level jet ramps
up. 12z NAM/ARW suggests this may be near DDC, but with very
little confidence, the forecast is dry (pops < 15%). The low
level jet will keep south winds elevated through Monday morning,
with many locations remaining above 70 degrees.

Monday will be the hottest day of this forecast period, with
record highs for September 14th likely. The numbers to beat at
the three climate sites are DDC 100/2017, GCK 101/1955, P28
104/1911. Pressure gradients will support strong southwest winds
Monday midday and afternoon, and wind grids follow the strongest
guidance. 12z MAV forecasts 30 mph sustained winds Monday across
much of SW KS, with a well mixed boundary layer supporting gusts
of 40-45 mph. Downslope compression will encourage temperatures
to reach record levels. Heat indices will be near heat advisory
criteria (105) for a few hours Monday afternoon, but not
sufficient for an advisory at this time.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the lee
trough after 4 pm Monday, from Baca county Colorado to the
northwest zones. NBM pops favoring the northwest zones were
accepted. A hot mixed boundary layer coupled with strong ambient
synoptic winds will promote a primary risk of outflow winds to
near 60 mph, supporting SPC`s 5% marginal wind probability
northern zones.

A rather strong cold front for September standards is forecast
to arrive in NW KS Tuesday morning, with 12z NAM showing a
sharp cold frontal passage southward through SW KS daylight
Tuesday. Emanating from a 1025 mb surface high over Nebraska,
northeast winds will be quite strong by late Tuesday, well above
NBM guidance. Temperature forecasting for any specific location
Tuesday will be very difficult, with even the NBM depicting an
impressive 30 degree gradient across the DDC CWA (near 70 north,
near 100 south). Exact high temperatures in between could really
be anything based on frontal timing, with a non-diurnal curve
downward in the afternoon after frontal passage. Getting more
fall-like!

Thunderstorms are expected to easily develop along the sharp
frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon. It is expected for SPC
severe probabilities for wind/hail to increase some for Tuesday,
although models currently suggest instability may be limited
along the strong convergence zone. Trends continue to suggest
more widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night, as
overrunning/warm air advection initiate north of the front.
NBM pops remain likely to categorical (60-80%) and these were
accepted. Some significant rainfall totals are possible Tuesday
night.

Wednesday and Thursday, expectation is for the frontal boundary
to retreat northward again, as a trough enters the Pacific NW,
and the strong 598 dm ridge remains anchored over the
Mississippi valley. Elevated south winds and above normal
temperatures are expected to prevail in this synoptic regime.
Any thunderstorms Wednesday/Thursday evenings would favor the
northwest zones, furthest from the influence of the sprawling
upper ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR is expected through the TAF pd. A 40-50 kt LLJ will promote
LLWS across the terminals during the overnight hours. The high
plains lee trough will deepen Monday across Colorado. This will
result it winds becoming strong and gusty. Expect S to SW winds
around 25 kt with gusts in the 35 to 40 kt range through much of
the day tomorrow. Storm activity looks to remain west of the
terminals tomorrow night.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Sugden