785
FXUS63 KDDC 142230
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot weather is forecast through Wednesday.

- There are chances for t-storms Wednesday night into Thursday,
  along with cooler temperatures.

- There are signals of an extended hot spell beginning this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A weak upper level disturbance will pass north of Kansas
Tuesday and interact with a frontal boundary to spark t-storms
well north I-70 Tuesday evening and night. Southwestern Kansas
will be free of t-storms. Outflow from a storm cluster will push
into central Kansas by Wednesday. The next upper level trough
will traverse the northern plains Wednesday evening and night
along with an associated cold front. T-storms will develop along
the front and possibly along the outflow boundary from previous
night`s storms. Given the very weak vertical wind shear, these
storms will only be strong to marginally severe, with 60 mph
wind gusts possible. Once these surface fronts get south of the
mid to high level westerlies they will tend to stall out. But by
Thursday morning the outflow from Wednesday night`s storms will
likely push into southern Kansas. With daytime heating
additional storms will develop along this boundary across the
southern tier from Liberal to Medicine Lodge.

By Friday, the model ensemble trends indicate weak upper level
troughing over the Desert Southwest, with weak westerlies
extending across Kansas. This will tend to keep temperatures
from getting overly hot. However, given the existence of a low
level capping inversion (due to the mid level downslope flow)
that would trap moisture close to the ground, high dewpoints
will likely be in place so that afternoon heat indices will
likely be in the 100 degree range. There are very small chances
for thunderstorms through Sunday and possibly even into Monday.
During summer, isolated t-storms can`t be ruled out as long as
Kansas is situated along the southern edge of the westerlies,
with surface troughing along the high plains. But organized
storm clusters with widespread heavy rain are highly unlikely.

The various ensemble suites indicate an upper level ridge
expanding northward into the central plains early next week
and persisting for several days, something we have not seen much
of this summer. If this happens, moisture levels will drop due
to the absence of a strong capping inversion and an increase
in the depth of vertical mixing, but actual temperatures could
surpass 100 given the dry air. Thunderstorm chances in this
pattern would be slim to none due to the lack of potential
instability and forcing mechanisms. However, model run to run
consistency showing this scenario is preferred before latching
onto the idea of an extended heat wave.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with mostly clear
skies. Winds will be from the south to southeast overnight,
shifting to the south and becoming breezy by late morning
tomorrow.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Hovorka_42