Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
369 FXUS63 KDDC 201744 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1244 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is another round of thunderstorm chances (50-70%) across southwest Kansas tonight. - More seasonal temperatures are likely the next couple of days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 WV imagery indicates a closed upper low transitioning east through the high plains of eastern Wyoming. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is shifting east through the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. Another round of thunderstorm chances (50-70%) return early in the period as the SREF indicates the closed upper low in eastern Wyoming edging eastward into western South Dakota/western Nebraska tonight, setting up a series of H5 vort maxima ejecting eastward out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of eastern Colorado. Near the surface, a prevailing easterly upslope will reinforce pooled moisture across the Western High Plains with surface dewpoints generally in the lower/mid 60s(F), providing modest instability with MUCAPE values upward of 1000 to 1500 J/kg in an axis in extreme eastern Colorado near and along the Kansas line. Thunderstorm development is likely late afternoon into this evening as H5 vort maxima begin to eject out of the Rockies, interacting with a lee side trough axis/dryline in eastern Colorado, then becoming more numerous while spreading east-southeast into extreme western Kansas overnight in conjunction with a compact +60kt jet core cycling through the westerly flow aloft. This is suggested by CAMs and the HREF showing a 40-60% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch across a good portion of southwest Kansas by early Monday morning. Similar conditions are forecast Monday evening with thunderstorm chances (20-30%) existing near and along the Colorado line, though to a much lesser degree with a smaller scale upper level ridge axis beginning to amplify across the Western High Plains. More seasonal temperatures are likely tonight as surface high pressure drifting east through the Great Lakes helps reinforce a cooler air mass within a east-northeast upslope flow across the Western High Plains. With the latest HREF indicating a a 50-70% probability of temperatures slipping below 60F in west central Kansas, central Kansas, and portions of extreme southwest Kansas, look for lows in the 50s(F) in our west/northwest with the lower 60s(F) likely in south central Kansas where the probability of dropping below 60F is less than 10%. Relatively mild temperatures are forecast Monday as a prevailing cooler air mass is slow to erode within an easterly upslope flow, resulting in H85 temperatures reaching up around 15C in central/south central Kansas to nearing 20C in extreme southwest Kansas. Expect afternoon highs generally in the 70s(F) with the HREF indicating a 70-90% probability of temperatures topping 75F across our east to a better than 90% probability of exceeding 70F near and along the Colorado line. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Lingering MVFR cigs in vicinity of KHYS, KGCK, and KDDC are expected to improve to VFR conditions generally after 19-21Z as prevailing low level stratus continues to lift/scatter out this afternoon. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions will persist through late evening. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across eastern Colorado later this evening, then spread southeastward into west central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas overnight, potentially affecting the vicinity of KGCK, KLBL, and KDDC generally after 05-07Z. Light east-northeast winds are expected to persist through much of the period as a broad surface high transitions east through the Great Lakes Region. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJohnson AVIATION...JJohnson