885
FXUS63 KDDC 141022
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
522 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures expected today and Tuesday.

- Minimal isolated thunderstorm chances (20%) out west late
  Tuesday night/early Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft building slowly northeast
across the Four Corners Region into the Western High Plains. Near
the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is slowly developing
in eastern Colorado.

Tranquil conditions will persist early in the period as the SREF
indicates ridging aloft continuing to expand northeast through the
high plains of western Kansas. However, minimal thunderstorm chances
(20%) return to portions of western Kansas late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning as the SREF indicates a weak upper level shortwave
trough transitioning east through the Northern Plains, sending an
attendant frontal boundary southeast through northeast
Colorado/southwest Nebraska before stalling out in vicinity of
northwest Kansas. Meanwhile, a developing area of low pressure is
projected to gradually deepen in eastern Colorado with an attendant
dryline extending south-southwest into northeast New Mexico while
prevailing southerlies continue to support increased
moisture/instability ahead of it across southwest/central Kansas.
Although a weak disorganized flow aloft and capping will hinder
storm development for the most part, isolated thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out along and north of the stalled boundary to our north,
and potentially in vicinity of a field steep mid-level lapse rates
within an axis of increased low level convergence associated with
the dryline near the Colorado line. This is suggested by the latest
HREF hinting at a 10-20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an
inch in isolated areas of west central Kansas/far southwest Kansas
by late Tuesday evening.

An ongoing warming trend continues today as prevailing southerlies
further draw warmer air into western Kansas, pushing H85
temperatures well above 20C in central Kansas to a little above 25C
in extreme southwest Kansas. Under ample sunshine, afternoon highs
pushing the lower/mid 90s(F) are likely with the HREF suggesting a
70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 90F today. Expect highs
in the mid/upper 90s(F) Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late
evening. Light southerly winds through late morning will gradually
increase 10 to 20kt generally after 15-17Z as a developing lee side
trough of low pressure slowly strengthens in eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson