759
FXUS63 KDDC 171902
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
202 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 60-80% chance for strong to marginally severe
  thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

- Potential training of thunderstorms along an expected stalled
  frontal boundary may lead to localized flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of an upper level trough of low
pressure dipping southeast through the Pacific Northwest. Near the
surface, a strong lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
in extreme southeast Colorado.

An outside chance (20%) for isolated strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms remains for portions of southwest Kansas this evening
as the SREF indicates an upper level trough digging farther southeast
into the Great Basin. As the system approaches, a series of H5 vort
maxima will eject out of the Southern Rockies into the Western High
Plains, interacting with a sharpening dryline near and along the
Kansas/Colorado border. Combined with a deep moisture return providing
ample instability (MUCAPE values well above 2000-3000 J/kg) within
a field of steepening mid-level lapse rates, a few isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out across portions of southwest Kansas this evening.
This is supported by the HREF indicating a 10% probability of 6-hr
QPF exceeding a tenth of an inch for extreme southwest Kansas.

Significant thunderstorm chances (60-80%) return late Tuesday into
early Wednesday as medium range ensembles indicate an upper level
trough transitioning east through the Northern Rockies into the
Northern High Plains, sending an attendant cold front southeastward
into northern Kansas before stalling out Tuesday afternoon, somewhere
generally across southwest Kansas into north central Kansas. Ahead
of the approaching front, prevailing southerlies will continue to
enhance a moisture draw into central and portions of southwest Kansas
with surface dewpoints pushing well up into the mid/upper 60s(F),
providing more than ample instability. Steepening mid-level lapse
rates combined with increasingly favorable dynamic support aloft
in form of a field of intensifying southwesterlies spreading east
into western Kansas, will support likely thunderstorm development
in vicinity of the frontal boundary mid/late afternoon. The HREF
suggests the best chance for storms across west central Kansas and
portions of central Kansas where it indicates a 50-70% probability
of 12-hr QPF exceeding one-quarter of an inch by early Wednesday
morning. Considering high QPF fields in excess of 1 to 1.5 inches
and possible training due to a projected stalled boundary, localized
flooding could be an issue.

Well above normal temperatures are forecast tonight as prevailing
southerlies reinforce a warmer air mass across western Kansas. The
latest HREF indicates an 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping
below 75F, so expect lows generally in the lower/mid 70s(F).
Unseasonably warm temperatures continue Tuesday with H85 temperatures
holding in the lower 20s(C) ahead of the approaching frontal boundary.
The HREF paints a 70-90% probability of afternoon highs topping 90F
with the warmest temperatures in extreme southwest Kansas. Considerably
cooler temperatures are forecast behind the stalled frontal boundary
Wednesday, especially with increased cloud cover expected. The NBM
shows a 70-80% probability of high temperatures climbing above 70F
in west central Kansas and the I-70 corridor with a 60-70% probability
of highs topping 85F in south central Kansas. More widespread seasonal
temperatures are expected through the end of the week as the stalled
frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front. Expect highs
generally in the 80s(F) to near 90F Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Tuesday morning. Southerly winds 20 to 30kt with gusts up to
35kt through late afternoon are expected to increase to around 25 to
35kt with gusts up to 45kt this evening as a lee side trough of low
pressure further deepens in extreme southeast Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through
late tonight for KSZ043-061-062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson