646
FXUS63 KDDC 182030
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
230 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild weather continues through Wednesday. Highs
  Wednesday will average between 8 to 12 degrees above the
  seasonal normals for this time of year.

- Widespread rainfall expected Thursday and Friday. There is a
  60-70% chance that a large area of southwest Kansas will
  receive greater than 0.5.

- Unseasonably cold temperatures return Friday. Highs mainly in
  the 40s.

- Dry and more seasonal temperatures return over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Dry and unseasonably warm temperatures mid week will give way
to widespread accumulating rainfall and colder temperatures
Thursday and Friday. An upper level low will deepen over the
Western United States late week and eject a slow moving
shortwave trough into the Central Plains by Thursday.
Substantial moisture will spread into portions of southwest
Kansas from the Gulf, resulting in our first opportunity for a
widespread rain event the area has seen this month. The heaviest
rainfall is expected to move in late Wednesday night/early
Thursday, with activity tapering off during the day on Friday as
a negatively tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas.

Mild temperatures and dry conditions Wednesday. A weak cold
front moved across southwest Kansas earlier today bringing
northwest winds and slightly cooler air compared to yesterday.
The best cold air advection late today and overnight will occur
across north central Kansas as an area of high pressure moves
across western Kansas. However, what cooler air that does invade
western Kansas behind this front is not expected to
significantly impact temperatures during the day on Wednesday.
Based on the 18Z Wednesday and 00Z Thursday 850mb temperatures
forecast by the short term models it appears that the high
temperatures Wednesday afternoon will be similar to or even a
few degrees warmer than today (Tuesday). Highs will range from
the lower 60s along the I-70 corridor to around 70 across
extreme southwest Kansas, which is roughly 8 to 12 degrees above
the seasonal normals for this time of year.

Major weather changes can then be expected towards the end of
the work week across southwest Kansas with widespread
accumulating rainfall being possible Thursday into Friday. This
is due to an upper level shortwave trough exiting a developing
upper level low over the southwest United States. As this
shortwave trough lifts northeast across New Mexico toward
southwest Kansas late Wednesday night and Thursday, moisture and
lift will increase. This will allow scattered showers early
Thursday near the Oklahoma border to spread north into a
700-500mb deformation zone that will be developing over
southwest Kansas. As these showers move into this area of
enhanced lift, widespread steady rainfall will be possible late
Thursday through early Friday. The latest short term models
agree that this 700-500mb deformation zone will move very slowly
north over a 24 hour period as the upper level trough slowly
move east/northeast. This may result in an extended period for
this steadier rainfall to occur over much the same area which
will favor higher rainfall totals. In addition ECMWF EFI now
ranges from 0.8 to 0.9, SoT between 1 and 2, and PWATS exceeding
the 90th percentile. Base of this confidence has now increased
to around 70% chance that some areas will have the potential to
receive more than 1 inches of rainfall. There is also a 60-70%
chance that a large area of southwest Kansas will receive
greater than 0.5 from this upcoming event. At this time the
area most likely to see the highest totals is along and north of
a Medicine Lodge to Dodge City to Garden City/Scott City line
and south of I-70. WPC continues to place all of southwest
Kansas in a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall. This seems
reasonable, as localized minor flooding is possible, especially
in low lying areas, if the heaviest rain bands stall for several
hours.

Widespread rainfall and cloud cover will also result in some
unseasonably cool temperatures across southwest Kansas Thursday
and Friday, especially Friday. Given the chance for widespread
rain and cloud cover late week, it appears that the diurnal
change in temperatures between the highs and lows will be small.
Currently, the latest forecast has a 7 to 10 degree spread
between the high and low, which may not be bad for some
locations, but elsewhere this may still be a bit optimistic. We
could easily end up with temperatures being closer to the cooler
25th percentile (mid 40s), especially where our deformation
zone sets up near or north of Dodge City.

Dry conditions and more seasonal temperatures will return this
weekend. After a period of widespread accumulating rainfall late
in the week, a period of dry weather will return to southwest
Kansas over the weekend as this first upper level shortwave
trough exits western Kansas and the upper low over the southwest
United States deepens.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

An area of high pressure at the surface will track across
southwest Kansas over the next 24 hours. This will result in
northwest winds around 10 knots early this Tuesday afternoon
gradually decreasing through the late afternoon and then slowly
shifting to the east southeast overnight. These southerly winds
will then increase between 12Z and 18Z Wednesday as surface
pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert