573
FXUS63 KDDC 191742
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1142 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more mainly dry and mild day

- Widespread rainfall Thursday-Friday; 50-70% chance of 1" or
  more in some areas

- Cooler temperatures Friday into the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

One more day of mainly dry and mild conditions are expected this
afternoon across the forecast area. 850 mb temperatures
across the region this afternoon continue to remain elevated,
translating to surface temperatures being around 10 degrees
above seasonal norms. Temperatures will be mainly in the 60s,
but some low 70s will be possible across far southwest Kansas.
Increasing clouds will be what limits even higher temperatures
being reached.

Biggest weather talking point this week remains the emerging
storm system, with the high likelihood of widespread rainfall
Thursday and into Friday. Mid to upper-level trough is now
beginning to emerge into Southern California per 08z analysis.
This feature will continue to translate eastward through the
Southwest today, before emerging and ejecting into the Plains
into Thursday. With 60s dew points already in place across
the south-central Plains, moisture advection northward will
readily occur, possibly reaching the OK/KS border Thursday
afternoon. Dew points across our forecast area will be lower
given being on the cooler side of the system, but ample moisture
will still reach and wrap around across the area. Expecting
widespread rainfall to begin late Thursday morning and for it to
persist through Thursday afternoon, into Thursday night, before
gradually tapering off into Friday. WPC continues to maintain an
area wide Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4; at least 5%) for
excessive rainfall leading to areas of flooding. NBM
probabilities of greater than 1" continue to be 50-70% chance,
with the greatest concentration in eastern counties.

System departs through the day Friday, leading to more seasonal
temperatures into this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Mid level moisture was spreading across southwest Kansas early
this Wednesday morning with even a few sprinkles possible
through late day due to a 400 mb PVU crossing southwest Kansas.
This enhanced lift will decrease after 00z Thursday but the mid
clouds will linger through the overnight hours. Winds will be
primarily southerly at 10 to 15 knots. Tonight, these southerly
winds will back more to the southeast which may give rise to
another round of early morning fog. Current guidance suggests
visibilities may drop as low as 2-3 miles at times between 09Z
and 15Z Thursday.



&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...Burgert