364
FXUS63 KDDC 251903
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
203 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally brief moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected from
  late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Chance for
  Thunderstorms 20-40%.

- There is a marginal risk for wind gusts up to 60 mph and
  locally heavy rainfall will be possible Thursday afternoon and
  evening east of a Hays to Dodge City to Ashland line.

- A warming trend returns to southwest Kansas over the weekend.
  this will result in afternoon highs climbing into the mid 90s
  with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

A monsoonal component to the moisture over the central High
Plains continues Today, as PWAT values are still hanging around
150% of normal for mid June over southwest and west central
Kansas. The best opportunity for very locally heavy rain
producing showers and thunderstorms, and even strong gusty
winds, will be in those more west central counties and later
this afternoon and evening (west of a Hay to Liberal line and
about 10% or less coverage). HREF Probability matched means for
anything appreciable in terms of QPF hangs well to the northwest
along an Oakley to Eads, Co axis. The marginal outlook has been
removed Today although a general thunderstorm outlook is in
place for This Afternoon.

The trough at the surface is modeled to eject slightly eastward
over the next 24 hours, and by posing a focus for surface
moisture convergence over the lower plains counties, a return to
a Marginal risk for severe is outlooked for Thursday afternoon
for areas east of a Hays to Minneola line. Given the general low
shear and moderate cape, it is mainly wind risk once again over
those south central Kansas counties.

The greatest heat risk in the coming days is actually this
afternoon, east of highway 283 where the category gets into the
Moderate (level 2 of 4) given the afternoon low to mid 90s and
the overnight low to mid 70s combination. A respite comes in the
the for of slightly drier boundary layer air resulting in t not
was warm overnight lows, mitigating the heat risk back into the
Minor category (level 1 of 4) for the balance of the week.
These lower categories give a heads up to those without
effective cooling or adequate hydration. An uptick back to the
moderate category again in the eastern counties returns Saturday
and Saturday night.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Scattered cu but VFR conditions across all TAFs this afternoon as
the area of better OVC and -RA is relegated to far NW Kansas.
An increased thunderstorm risk will develop by early to mid
evening for any of the terminals, maximized around 2-6z and
favoring GCK-HYS for brief MVFR ceilings and vsby in scattered
showers and storms. Any thunderstorm risk should be over by
about 9z leaving decreasing southwest winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell