236
FXUS63 KDDC 242214
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
  will continue Thursday through Friday night. Additional
  rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch will be common.

- Southwest Kansas will dry out this weekend, with warmer
  afternoon temperatures in the 80s.

- Heavy rainfall potential exists next week, as the remnants of
  Pacific Hurricane Polo may interact with an approaching storm
  system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Midday infrared satellite imagery and mesoanalysis showed a
strong moisture plume continuing across western Kansas, with
widespread midlevel clouds, and precipitable water in excess
of 1.5 inches. Any instability was limited to areas southwest
of Dodge City, where CAPE was climbing above 1000 J/kg, and this
is where 12z NAM and many CAMs redevelop additional showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, spreading northeast this evening.
Marginally severe storms with hail to 1 inch and wind gusts to
60 mph are possible, but locally heavy rainfall will continue to
be the primary risk given the unseasonably wet atmosphere.
Given very heavy rainfall across some of the western zones last
night (many 2-4 inch reports) will need to watch for hydrology
issues through tonight where heavy rain falls on saturated soils.
Widespread stratus will develop once again with the moist
boundary layer through Friday morning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday and
Friday night, as the primary synoptic trough approaches, and
interacts with the continued moist atmosphere. It will not rain
the entire time, but chance to likely category pops from the
NBM were accepted. Just like Thursday, strong to marginally
severe storms are probable, with severe magnitude and coverage
being strongly limited by poor lapse rates/instability and weak
bulk wind shear. Temperatures will remain seasonably mild
Friday afternoon in the 70s, held down by the clouds and
limited sunshine.

Midlevel ridging is forecast to build over the plains Saturday
and Sunday, drying out SW KS, and allowing for warmer afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. There may be a storm in the vicinity of
Barber county late Saturday, but most of SW KS will be dry this
weekend.

We will be closely monitoring for a potentially significant
heavy rain/flooding event around the Tuesday/Wednesday time
frame. Synoptically, a strong western trough is forecast by the
global models to develop across western North America, which is
expected to direct remnant tropical moisture from Pacific
Hurricane Polo northeastward into the plains. Some recent model
runs suggest the combination of strong diffluence/synoptic lift
combined with very high tropical moisture may lead to
widespread heavy rain and/or thunderstorms Tuesday through
Wednesday. Daylight Monday appears dry, with scattered showers
and thunderstorms returning Monday night. NBM pops for Tuesday
are already in the likely category, and further pop increases
are expected as models latch onto this expected synoptic
evolution.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A slow moving storm system with a lot of moisture will bring
periodic thunderstorms over the next 24 hours to all the
terminals. Thunderstorm activity will ramp up after 00Z and
especially between 06-15Z. Cloud ceilings in general will be VFR
to MVFR with the cloud cover however if any storm passes over a
terminal we will see drops to IFR and LIFR due to heavy
downpours of rain. There is a small threat of some gusty winds
with the storms as gusts could approach 40 kts.



&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro