048
FXUS63 KDDC 180520
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1120 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry through mid-week

- Colder temperatures returning late week. Highs on Friday will
  be in the 40s to lower 50s.

- Improving chances for accumulating rainfall late week. There
  is a 50-80% chance for one half inch or greater of rainfall
  between Wednesday night and Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Dry and unseasonably warm conditions across southwest Kansas
will come to an end by mid week and give way to a wet and colder
weather pattern late week as the second in a series of upper
level lows lifts northeastward, moving into the Central High
Plains from the Desert Southwest. Widespread accumulating
rainfall will be likely (>70%) across southwest Kansas, along
with a period of cold temperatures (highs Friday mainly in the
40s).

Dry and unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through
mid week. Early this morning, a -22C 500mb low was located over
northern Colorado. Further west, the next, more significant
upper low was located just off the California coast as of 12z
this Monday morning. Over extreme western Kansas earlier today,
a dryline extended south from a surface low over northwest
Kansas. This resulted in gusty west winds and dewpoints already
(as of 2pm) in the 25 to 30 degree range some locations west of
this boundary. These conditions have led to elevated fire
weather conditions this afternoon west of highway 83. These
heightened fire weather conditions will linger through 6 pm.

Overnight, as the upper trough/low moves from the Central Plains
into the Mississippi Valley, a weak cold front will drop south
into western Kansas after midnight. This will bring cooler, more
seasonal temperatures on Tuesday. However, as westerly
downslope flow briefly improves on Wednesday, temperatures will
bounce back into the 60s and lower 70s as the next, more
significant, upper level storm system crosses the southwest
United States.

As we look ahead to the last half of the work week, colder
temperatures and increasing chances for precipitation will
develop. The deterministic and ensemble models this morning now
appear to be coming into better agreement that this next system,
located off the California coast earlier today, will lift
northeast from New Mexico into west Texas/western Kansas on
Thursday. As this upper level system approaches a cold front
will drop south of the Oklahoma border, which will increase
moisture and lift across western Kansas. This pattern favors
better moisture return and the potential for widespread
accumulating rainfall ahead of the negatively tilted upper
trough and near the left exit/nose of an upper level jet. The
expected rain and cloud cover that will be developing will also
limit daytime warming. Because of this, the NBM forecast high
may be too warm for highs late week. The cooler 25th percentile
for highs on Thursday and Friday may be more accurate due to the
expected cloud cover and possible precipitation. Those with
outdoor plans late this week should expect highs mainly in the
40s and 50s but keep a jacket handy. There is a 20-40% chance
that highs could struggle to reach much higher than 45 degrees
in a few places Friday afternoon.

As rain spreads across southwest Kansas late this week we will
monitor the potential for widespread accumulating rainfall and
possible minor water issues from 12Z Thursday through 12z
Friday. The latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift
of Tails (SoT) are now highlighting much of southwest Kansas,
with an EFI between 0.6 and 0.8 and a SoT above zero. Based on
this confidence is improving that the latest NBM guidance may
have the right idea that some locations could see rainfall
totals between 0.75 and 1.25 inches, especially east of Dodge
City Thursday night and Friday. This heavy rain potential is
further supported by the agreement between
ensembles/deterministic models on the track of this next system,
run to run consistency, and PWAT values >0.88 (which is >90%
for this time of year). Currently the NBM probability for
rainfall between 50-80% chance for rainfall totals to be greater
than 0.5 inches from 6 pm Wednesday through 7 am Saturday is
looking more and more likely. It is also interesting to note
that the chance for rainfall to exceed 1 inch east/northeast of
Dodge City ranges from 50-60%. This is up from 35 to 45 percent
just 24 hours ago. WPC today has issued a slight risk (at least
15%) of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance Thursday through
early Friday across south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Westerly
winds will shift northerly through Tuesday morning and into the
afternoon. Winds will be on the order of around 10 knots. Few
clouds will be possible into Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Bennett