982
FXUS63 KDDC 031724
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) again today.

- Temperatures remain a little below seasonal average today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

Based on radar trends and CAMs, a line of thunderstorms moving
southeast through southwest Kansas early this morning, is projected
to push farther southeast into northern Oklahoma and south central
Kansas by daybreak. Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) pick back up late
today as the SREF indicates another upper level shortwave perturbation
sliding southeast through the Western High Plains off of a slowly
amplifying upper level ridge extending northward across the Four
Corners Region up into the Rockies of southwest Wyoming. Near the
surface, prevailing southeasterly upslope flow will continue to
reinforce increased moisture across the area with surface dewpoints
in the 60s(F), providing ample instability. With that, thunderstorm
development will be possible late afternoon/early evening as H5 vort
maxima transition southeast through the high plains of western
Kansas, interacting with a widespread field of steepening low/mid-
level lapse rates. The best chance for storms is expected to be
along and east of a Scott City to Liberal line where the HREF shows
a 30-40% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch by late
evening.

Temperatures are likely to remain a little below normal today with
clouds slow to scatter out west to east while a southeasterly upslope
flow prevails across much of the area. The HREF does paint a fairly
widespread 70-90% probability of afternoon highs topping 80F, with
the warmest temperatures out west near the Colorado line where more
sunshine is expected. Similar temperatures are forecast Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

An upper level trough will approach southwest Kansas late this
afternoon and early tonight bringing VFR ceilings between 4000
and 8000 ft AGL. There is also a chance for thunderstorms,
mainly between 21z today and 06z Monday. These storms could
produce strong, gusty winds, heavy rainfall reducing
visibilities, and hail. Skies will clear after the storms pass.
Surface winds for the rest of the day and outside of
thunderstorms tonight will be south southeast at 10 to 15
knots.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert