773
FXUS63 KDDC 051815
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1215 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A long stretch of beautiful, quiet fall weather is expected
  for the foreseeable future - through the next 10 days, through
  at least November 15th. Expect no precipitation, no strong
  cold fronts or cold air intrusions, and no killing freezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Compact vigorous shortwave was centered over central Kansas at
midday, exiting the DDC CWA. Associated deformation zone
rain showers southeast of Dodge City will diminish rapidly
through mid afternoon as the shortwave departs, and subsidence
clears the sky rapidly. With a few hours of strong insolation,
temperatures will warm into the 50s this afternoon.

Near ideal radiational cooling is expected tonight through
sunrise Friday, with a widespread light freeze and widespread
frost forecast. 12z RRFS appears reasonable with temperatures of
30-32 common at 7 am Friday, especially west of US 283 and in
the colder locales such as along the Arkansas river valley.
Surface ridging near 1025 mb will be centered over the eastern
zones at 7 am, as such eastern zones will cool well down through
the 30s as well. Being in November, no frost or freeze headlines
will be issued. That stated, many locations have not received a
killing freeze yet this season, and Friday morning`s
temperatures are expected to end the growing season at least
partially, with some locations as cold as 28 briefly near
sunrise. With recent rainfall and wet surfaces/topsoils, frost
will be common Friday morning, particularly with the favorable
nearly calm winds.

The next weak shortwave over Arizona Friday is modelled to track
well south of SW KS through this weekend, through Mexico and
Texas. All of SW KS will be dry through Monday, with afternoon
temperatures showing a slow warming trend, returning to the
lower 70s by Monday afternoon.

Tuesday through next Friday - all of next week - will feature
beautiful quiet fall weather. Global models depict an
impressively quiet synoptic regime, with zero precipitation, no
storm systems, no cold fronts, no strong winds, and no killing
freezes. Put another way, no weather impacts are expected into
mid November.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1015 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Remaining rain showers near LBL and southeast of DDC at
1615z Thu will dissipate or exit over the next 3 hours, with
remaining midlevel clouds clearing by sunset. Excellent flying
weather will prevail through the remainder of this TAF
period, with VFR/SKC and light and variable winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner