781
FXUS63 KDDC 072306
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
606 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minimal rain chances (<20%) late tonight.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to return
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure
is drifting east through the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

Minimal rain chances (<20%) will linger across southern portions of
southwest/south central Kansas early in the period as the SREF
indicates a series of H5 vort maxima cresting the axis of a slowly
building ridge out of the Desert Southwest, ejecting out of the
southern Rockies into the panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma tonight.
Although instability will be scarce with the RAP13 showing only
MUCAPE upward of 200 to 300 J/kg near and along the Oklahoma border
within a southeasterly upslope flow, showers and a few thunderstorms
are expected to develop late this afternoon in northeast New Mexico
as ejecting H5 vort maxima interact with a stalled frontal boundary
in the region, then spreading eastward into the panhandles and
potentially portions of southwest Kansas near and along the Oklahoma
line overnight. This is supported by the HREF showing a 10-20%
probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding only 0.1 of an inch across portions
of southwest Kansas generally south of highway 50 by early Wednesday
morning. Drier conditions are then likely through the end of the
week as ridging aloft continues to amplify across the Western High
Plains.

Temperatures are not expected to be quite a cool tonight with a
light southeasterly upslope flow developing on the back side of a
departing surface high, not to mention likely increased cloud cover
present. With the latest HREF pointing to only 10-30% probability of
temperatures slipping below 55F in south central Kansas to a 50-70%
probability of under 55F in central, west central, and extreme
southwest Kansas, look for widespread lows generally in the 50s(F).
Warming trend continues into Wednesday as prevailing southerlies
help draw slightly warmer air up into the area, pushing H85
temperatures well above 10C in central Kansas to near 15C in extreme
southwest Kansas. Expect afternoon highs only up into the 60s(F)
in central Kansas to the 70s(F) to the southwest with the HREF
indicating only a 20-40% probability of temperatures exceeding 65F
in vicinity of the I-70 corridor to a 60-80% probability of topping
70F out near the Colorado line. Unseasonably warm temperatures return
Thursday as ridging aloft continues to amplify across the Western
High Plains while prevailing southerlies enhance warm air advection,
pushing H85 temperatures up above 15C in central Kansas to a little
above 20C out west. Widespread afternoon highs in the lower/mid 80s(F)
are forecast as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Over the next 3 to 5 hours increasing moisture and lift will
lead to ceilings lowering into the 3000 to 6000 ft AGL by 05Z
Wednesday. This low VFR cloud deck is expected to persist
through the remainder of the TAF period (through 00Z Thursday).
There is greater than a 60% chance that ceilings could briefly
fall into the 2000 to 3000 ft AGL range between 12Z and 18Z
Wednesday in the Garden City and Liberal areas. There is also a
20% or less chance for light rain showers for these two
locations. At this time given the low probability will not
include them in the 00z TAFS. Easterly winds at 10 knots or less
will shift to southeast after 12Z Wednesday, increasing to
around 15 knots between 15Z and 18Z Wednesday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert