688
FXUS63 KDDC 151932
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
232 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather risk exists Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons
  before a dry stretch

- A hot week ahead; a moderate heat risk is present this week
  other than a relatively cooler Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A cluster of sub-severe , heavy rain and small hail producing
thunderstorms moved across the far southwest this morning. This
suggests previous runs of the HRRR were a little less aggressive
on the eastward potential of the convection developing over the
eastern Colorado surface trough. This forecast challenge for
later Today through tomorrow morning is none the different with
the inherent uncertainty on convective location and maintenance
potential.

Parts of the forecast area, namely western counties on Monday
and southeast counties on Tuesday will teeter in the moderate
(level 2 of 4) category heat risk, affecting people most
sensitive to heat, without cooling or hydration. Wednesday is a
bit of a respite from the heat. Friday however becomes a bit
more oppressive as a more widespread Moderate to areas of Major
heat risk which effects anyone without hydration and cooling. By
the numbers, the expected highs at DDC for Tuesday, Friday ans
Saturday, are in a range of outcomes from at least the mid 90s,
to about 101/102 degrees at the NBMs 75th percentile. The
aforementioned cooler temps on Wednesday appear a result of
expected precipitation modifying the boundary layer, as the NBM
is producing man pops of 60% across the I-70 corridor and around
30% pops in the extreme southwest counties. This appears
related tot he breakdown of the upper synoptic pattern with a
pacific upper jet segment extending into the central Rockies by
Tuesday and carving out a broad upper trough from Wyoming into
New Mexico. The CSU machine learning forecasts peg reasonably
good possibility (15-30%) for severe weather over the entire
region Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025


No restrictive impacts to area terminals this afternoon or
evening as the convection risk is going to be isolated and of
low predictability. The most confidence we have is in the timing
of any convective threat which is in the second half of this TAF
set, basically after about 7z. A marginal severe risk outlook is
in place  isolated storms Monday morning will be most likely
similar to Sunday mornings storms, with small hail and sub
severe winds, but locally very heavy rain dropping visibility to
a half mile locally. Much too early to consider mentioning in
any TAF, even as either PROB or VC. Winds remain prevailing out
of the southeast for the entire period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell