821
FXUS63 KDDC 031800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...Updated Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwest winds midday Tuesday will weaken rapidly late
  Tuesday afternoon. The sky will also clear rapidly near
  sunset.

- Strong radiational cooling will deliver seasonably cold
  temperatures in the 30s Wednesday morning.

- Rain expected late Wednesday through early Thursday.

- Cool temperatures in the 50s Thursday afternoon will be
  followed by a warming trend Friday through Monday.

- After the rain early Thursday, a long dry stretch is expected,
  with no precipitation through at least November 12th.

- There are no hard/killing freezes in sight through at least
  the next 10 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Strong closed midlevel cyclone was departing through eastern
Kansas at midday, with the cyclone`s circulation clearly evident
on satellite imagery. Widespread wraparound stratocumulus at
11 am will continue to gradually erode through mid afternoon as
subsidence takes control, followed by rapid clearing to a clear
sky around sunset. Strong northwest winds gusting near 40 mph
as of 11 am, will remain strong through about 2 pm, then rapidly
weaken to light 5-10 mph around sunset. Strong radiational
cooling is expected through sunrise Wednesday, with a clear sky,
light winds and drier air, allowing temperatures to fall to
seasonably cold mid to upper 30s. Widespread frost is
anticipated across northwest zones Wednesday morning, where
minimum temperatures of 32-34 will be colocated with wet
topsoils from last night`s heavy rainfall. No hard freezes
(<28 degrees) are expected.

Fantastic fall weather expected Wednesday beneath very brief
shortwave ridging between systems. Full sunshine will prevail
for most of Wednesday, with only light and variable winds by
afternoon, and afternoon temperatures near normal in the
lower 60s. Midlevel clouds are expected to increase rapidly near
sunset as the next shortwave approaches.

Compact progressive shortwave is forecast to be centered near
the Colorado Rockies 6 pm Wednesday, over SW KS 6 am Thursday,
and near Tulsa, Oklahoma 6 pm Thursday. While small, quick and
moisture starved, this shortwave will possess rather impressive
kinematic forcing for ascent and frontogenesis to produce
scattered to numerous rain showers. NBM pops are correctly
focused on the Wednesday night/early Thursday time frame, and
have increased into the likely category (60-80% coverage).
Models have shown consistency with a track that places the best
rain directly over SW KS, but with such a small system, any
track deviation would alter rainfall amounts noticeably.
Current WPC QPF guidance of 0.10-0.30 inch appears reasonable,
with the least amounts across the northern I-70 corridor.
Temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s will keep all
precipitation rain, with no impacts expected.

Afterwards, a long stretch of dry weather, with little to no
impacts, is expected heading into mid November. The next
shortwave is progged to quickly cutoff into Mexico, and remain
well south of SW KS through this weekend into next week. All
NBM pops are dry for all zones of SW KS Friday through Tuesday.
Afternoon temperatures will be seasonably mild and pleasant in
the 60s, with still no cold air intrusions and no killing
freezes evident through at least November 10th.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1000 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Surface observations at 16z Tue depicted strong northwest winds
gusting 35-40 kts, along with widespread broken/overcast MVFR
stratus ceilings. These winds and ceilings will continue through
about 21z Tue, followed by a rapid diminishing of the wind, and
a rapidly clearing sky, by 00z Wed. Excellent flying weather is
expected 00-18z Wed, with VFR/SKC and light winds. Lowering
ceilings are expected after 00z Thu, with areas of rain
00-12z Thu.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner