


Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
871 FGUS73 KDDC 131856 ESFDDC KSC007-025-033-047-051-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101- 119-129-135-145-151-165-171-175-185-187-189-195-271855- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 150 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3... This outlook applies to the Dodge City Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the following rivers in southwest Kansas... - The Arkansas River from the Kansas-Colorado state line to below Larned, Kansas - the Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers in Trego and Ellis counties - the Walnut Creek in Ness and Rush counties - the Pawnee Creek and Buckner Creek - the Rattlesnake Creek and Crooked Creek - the Cimarron River and Medicine Lodge River This outlook is valid from March 13 through March 27, 2025. Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Dodge City Service area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation...or longer periods of excessive precipitation. Over the past year precipitation amounts in the HSA were generally at or slightly above normal. Areas from WaKeeney to Dodge City as well as areas along the Colorado and Oklahoma borders received 100% normal precipitation in the last year. Areas around Garden City, Liberal, Scott City, Hays, and Larned received 75% of normal precipitation. No spot in southwest Kansas received abnormally dry amounts of precipitation in the calendar year. The last three months from December 13th through March 13th have been fairly dry for much of southwest Kansas. Areas from the Colorado border to Dodge City have received 10-25% of normal precipitation. Areas east of highway 183 have received 25-75% of normal. Soil moisture is between 30-70% percentile across southwest Kansas with a general drying trend in the soil moisture across the region. The latest drought monitor index from (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) issued March 13th shows that outside of Trego county every county is reporting abnormally dry conditions. Areas along the Oklahoma and Colorado border as well as Ellis county are reporting moderate drought. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook released on February 28th and valid through May 31st, 2025 calls for likely drought development for all of southwest Kansas. The Climate Prediction Center Outlook issued on February 20th for the 3-month period of March through May 2025 calls for equal chances of above, below, or near normal temperatures and leaning towards below precipitation at 33-40% for most of southwest Kansas with higher probabilities of below normal precipitation along and west of highway 83 (40-50%). The 8-14 Day CPC Outlook valid for March 20-26th, 2025 calls for above normal temperatures (33-40% probability) and near normal chances of precipitation. Eastern Pacific current oscillations are forecast to be La Nina range for the Northern Hemisphere with a transition to ENSO neutral conditions during the meteorological spring (March-May 2025). A weak La Nina or neutral conditions would make it less likely for conventional spring impacts such as widespread heavy rainfall events. Localized thunderstorms could still produce locally heavy rains and small areas of flash flooding. Colorado Rocky Mountain winter snowpack in the Upper Arkansas River Basin subregion is running slightly below median long-term average conditions. The average snowpack from USDA SNOTEL sites in the upper part of the basin is currently at around 71 percent of average. Taking this out to the Arkansas river region which includes southwest Kansas the number is at 60 percent of average. At John Martin Reservoir in southeast Colorado, the current water surface elevation is around 3815.58 feet, which equates to about 66,269 acre-feet of water. The reservoir is approximately 19.0 percent full. At Cedar Bluff Reservoir in west central Kansas, the reservoir pool elevation stands at 2122.6 feet which equates to 66068 acre-feet of water. The reservoir is approximately 38.3 percent full. At Horse Thief Reservoir in southwest Kansas, the current water surface elevation is 2421.83 feet which equates to a current storage capacity of 6152 acre-feet. Reservoir storage is at 99 percent capacity. There is sufficient capacity for snowmelt runoff and spring rains at John Martin and Cedar Bluff reservoirs in southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow map indicates that rivers and streams across central and southwest Kansas are running at below normal levels. Exceptions include the Arkansas river at Coolidge and Syracuse and the Smokey Hill River in Trego county. These are at normal streamflow. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Smoky Hill River Arnold 12N 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 8 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 Schoenchen 2E 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 6 9 <5 6 <5 <5 :Big Creek Ellis 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Hays 2SSE 26.0 29.0 32.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Saline River Wakeeney 5N 13.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Arkansas River Coolidge 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Syracuse 1S 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Garden City 10.0 13.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Dodge City 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Walnut Creek Nekoma 29.0 31.0 33.0 : 8 6 6 <5 <5 <5 :Buckner Creek Burdett 7WSW 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pawnee Creek Burdett 6W 30.0 32.0 34.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pawnee River Sanford 24.0 27.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Rattlesnake Creek Macksville 8SE 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Zenith 10NNW 17.0 18.0 19.0 : 8 6 6 <5 <5 <5 :South Fork Ninnescah River Pratt 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Crooked Creek Englewood 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 13 5 5 <5 <5 <5 :Cimarron River Forgan 8NNE 5.0 6.0 7.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Medicine Lodge River Kiowa 2NE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Smoky Hill River Arnold 12N 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.4 5.1 6.5 8.1 Schoenchen 2E 2.0 2.2 2.3 3.2 5.3 8.1 12.2 :Big Creek Ellis 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.7 10.3 12.2 12.7 Hays 2SSE 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.8 8.2 16.7 17.3 :Saline River Wakeeney 5N 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 6.0 9.7 12.1 :Arkansas River Coolidge 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.2 4.6 7.2 8.9 Syracuse 1S 4.5 4.5 4.6 5.1 6.6 8.4 9.8 Garden City 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.7 7.1 7.6 Dodge City 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.7 8.6 8.9 :Walnut Creek Nekoma 7.6 7.6 8.8 15.7 22.5 27.5 32.2 :Buckner Creek Burdett 7WSW 5.1 5.1 5.1 6.6 10.1 13.3 16.8 :Pawnee Creek Burdett 6W 2.4 2.4 2.4 6.4 12.6 16.7 17.3 :Pawnee River Sanford 5.9 5.9 6.0 7.8 11.7 14.5 16.5 :Rattlesnake Creek Macksville 8SE 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.4 5.6 7.2 8.0 Zenith 10NNW 12.7 12.7 13.2 14.8 15.4 16.6 17.8 :South Fork Ninnescah River Pratt 2.6 2.8 4.1 5.2 6.7 7.8 10.0 :Crooked Creek Englewood 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.6 5.0 7.0 8.0 :Cimarron River Forgan 8NNE 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.3 3.4 4.4 5.0 :Medicine Lodge River Kiowa 2NE 0.1 0.2 1.9 3.2 5.3 7.6 8.8 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Smoky Hill River Arnold 12N 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Schoenchen 2E 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 :Big Creek Ellis 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 Hays 2SSE 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 :Saline River Wakeeney 5N 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/ddc for more weather and water information. Based upon the above information, there is near normal risk of flooding over central and western Kansas this spring. Most flooding in the area is directly related to specific heavy precipitation events. This will be the final Spring Flood Outlook issued for this year. $$ TATRO