Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
871
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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
This outlook applies to the Dodge City Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)
which includes the following rivers in southwest Kansas...
- The Arkansas River from the Kansas-Colorado state line to below
Larned, Kansas
- the Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers in Trego and Ellis counties
- the Walnut Creek in Ness and Rush counties
- the Pawnee Creek and Buckner Creek
- the Rattlesnake Creek and Crooked Creek
- the Cimarron River and Medicine Lodge River
This outlook is valid from March 13 through March 27, 2025.
Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced
notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture,
snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued.
The vast majority of flood events in the Dodge City Service area
result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation...or
longer periods of excessive precipitation.
Over the past year precipitation amounts in the HSA were generally at
or slightly above normal. Areas from WaKeeney to Dodge City as well
as areas along the Colorado and Oklahoma borders received 100% normal
precipitation in the last year. Areas around Garden City, Liberal,
Scott City, Hays, and Larned received 75% of normal precipitation.
No spot in southwest Kansas received abnormally dry amounts of
precipitation in the calendar year.
The last three months from December 13th through March 13th have been
fairly dry for much of southwest Kansas. Areas from the Colorado
border to Dodge City have received 10-25% of normal precipitation.
Areas east of highway 183 have received 25-75% of normal.
Soil moisture is between 30-70% percentile across southwest Kansas
with a general drying trend in the soil moisture across the region.
The latest drought monitor index from (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu)
issued March 13th shows that outside of Trego county every county is
reporting abnormally dry conditions. Areas along the Oklahoma and
Colorado border as well as Ellis county are reporting moderate
drought.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
released on February 28th and valid through May 31st, 2025 calls for
likely drought development for all of southwest Kansas.
The Climate Prediction Center Outlook issued on February 20th for the
3-month period of March through May 2025 calls for equal chances of
above, below, or near normal temperatures and leaning towards below
precipitation at 33-40% for most of southwest Kansas with higher
probabilities of below normal precipitation along and west of highway
83 (40-50%).
The 8-14 Day CPC Outlook valid for March 20-26th, 2025 calls for
above normal temperatures (33-40% probability) and near normal
chances of precipitation.
Eastern Pacific current oscillations are forecast to be La Nina range
for the Northern Hemisphere with a transition to ENSO neutral
conditions during the meteorological spring (March-May 2025). A weak
La Nina or neutral conditions would make it less likely for
conventional spring impacts such as widespread heavy rainfall events.
Localized thunderstorms could still produce locally heavy rains and
small areas of flash flooding.
Colorado Rocky Mountain winter snowpack in the Upper Arkansas River
Basin subregion is running slightly below median long-term average
conditions. The average snowpack from USDA SNOTEL sites in the upper
part of the basin is currently at around 71 percent of average.
Taking this out to the Arkansas river region which includes southwest
Kansas the number is at 60 percent of average.
At John Martin Reservoir in southeast Colorado, the current water
surface elevation is around 3815.58 feet, which equates to about
66,269 acre-feet of water. The reservoir is approximately 19.0
percent full. At Cedar Bluff Reservoir in west central Kansas, the
reservoir pool elevation stands at 2122.6 feet which equates to 66068
acre-feet of water. The reservoir is approximately 38.3 percent
full. At Horse Thief Reservoir in southwest Kansas, the current water
surface elevation is 2421.83 feet which equates to a current storage
capacity of 6152 acre-feet. Reservoir storage is at 99 percent
capacity. There is sufficient capacity for snowmelt runoff and spring
rains at John Martin and Cedar Bluff reservoirs in southeast Colorado
and southwest Kansas.
The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow map indicates
that rivers and streams across central and southwest Kansas are
running at below normal levels. Exceptions include the Arkansas
river at Coolidge and Syracuse and the Smokey Hill River in Trego
county. These are at normal streamflow.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Smoky Hill River
Arnold 12N 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 8 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
Schoenchen 2E 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 6 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:Big Creek
Ellis 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Hays 2SSE 26.0 29.0 32.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Saline River
Wakeeney 5N 13.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Arkansas River
Coolidge 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
Syracuse 1S 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Garden City 10.0 13.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Dodge City 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Walnut Creek
Nekoma 29.0 31.0 33.0 : 8 6 6 <5 <5 <5
:Buckner Creek
Burdett 7WSW 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Pawnee Creek
Burdett 6W 30.0 32.0 34.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Pawnee River
Sanford 24.0 27.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Rattlesnake Creek
Macksville 8SE 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Zenith 10NNW 17.0 18.0 19.0 : 8 6 6 <5 <5 <5
:South Fork Ninnescah River
Pratt 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Crooked Creek
Englewood 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 13 5 5 <5 <5 <5
:Cimarron River
Forgan 8NNE 5.0 6.0 7.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Medicine Lodge River
Kiowa 2NE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Smoky Hill River
Arnold 12N 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.4 5.1 6.5 8.1
Schoenchen 2E 2.0 2.2 2.3 3.2 5.3 8.1 12.2
:Big Creek
Ellis 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.7 10.3 12.2 12.7
Hays 2SSE 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.8 8.2 16.7 17.3
:Saline River
Wakeeney 5N 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 6.0 9.7 12.1
:Arkansas River
Coolidge 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.2 4.6 7.2 8.9
Syracuse 1S 4.5 4.5 4.6 5.1 6.6 8.4 9.8
Garden City 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.7 7.1 7.6
Dodge City 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.7 8.6 8.9
:Walnut Creek
Nekoma 7.6 7.6 8.8 15.7 22.5 27.5 32.2
:Buckner Creek
Burdett 7WSW 5.1 5.1 5.1 6.6 10.1 13.3 16.8
:Pawnee Creek
Burdett 6W 2.4 2.4 2.4 6.4 12.6 16.7 17.3
:Pawnee River
Sanford 5.9 5.9 6.0 7.8 11.7 14.5 16.5
:Rattlesnake Creek
Macksville 8SE 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.4 5.6 7.2 8.0
Zenith 10NNW 12.7 12.7 13.2 14.8 15.4 16.6 17.8
:South Fork Ninnescah River
Pratt 2.6 2.8 4.1 5.2 6.7 7.8 10.0
:Crooked Creek
Englewood 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.6 5.0 7.0 8.0
:Cimarron River
Forgan 8NNE 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.3 3.4 4.4 5.0
:Medicine Lodge River
Kiowa 2NE 0.1 0.2 1.9 3.2 5.3 7.6 8.8
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Smoky Hill River
Arnold 12N 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Schoenchen 2E 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
:Big Creek
Ellis 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4
Hays 2SSE 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
:Saline River
Wakeeney 5N 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/ddc for more weather and water
information.
Based upon the above information, there is near normal risk of
flooding over central and western Kansas this spring. Most flooding
in the area is directly related to specific heavy precipitation
events.
This will be the final Spring Flood Outlook issued for this year.
$$
TATRO