Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
686 FXXX12 KWNP 160031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 16 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels, with occasional low-level C-class flaring observed including a C3.3/Sf flare at 15/0846 UTC from Region 4489 (S08E46, Hsx/alpha). The largest event of the period, a long duration C8.9 flare that peaked at 15/2155 UTC, originated from a returning region on the eastern limb. This region is not yet numbered and will be assessed once it has become visible from Earths perspective, but the latest imagery from Solar Orbiter suggested only a simple and rather average bipolar group with relatively small penumbra. There are two numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk. Region 4482 (S09W69, Hsx/alpha) showed minor new flux emergence behind its mature primary spot, developing a bipolar configuration. As Region 4489 rotated further into view and limb foreshortening effects decreased, very small opposite-polarity trailing spots became visible, making it a stable bipolar group. Additionally, a small, magnetically simple region tracked in Solar Orbiter imagery has begun to rotate over the east limb near S10. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 18 July, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares primarily driven by active regions anticipated to rotate onto the visible disk over the next few days. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels 16-18 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 18 July. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected possible combined glancing CME effects and subsequent weak positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS) influences. Total field strength was between 5-10 nT while the Bz component was generally +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speeds were slightly elevated near 480-500 for most of the period. Phi was variable. .Forecast... A return to more ambient-like conditions is expected over the next three days. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels early in the period due to slight enhancements in the solar wind. .Forecast... Activity is anticipated to decrease to mostly quiet to unsettled levels over 16-18 July.