753
FXXX12 KWNP 281231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Sep 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels with C1 flares observed from
Region 4535 (N12W31, Bxi/beta-gamma), which developed additional spots
this period while the remaining regions were either stable or in decay.
No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach low levels with a slight chance for an
M-flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 28 Sep. Solar activity is expected to
be very low over 29-30 Sep.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak of
3,060 pfu at 27/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
28-30 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at
background levels through 30 Sep.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters showed diminishing CH HSS influences and the
return of ambient-like solar wind conditions. Total magnetic field
strength was less than 5 nT throughout the reporting period, and the Bz
component varied between +1/-2 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased
from 400 km/s at the beginning of the period to 350 km/s by the end. The
phi angle was positive.

.Forecast...
Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 28-30 Sep.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet over 28-30 Sep.