Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
341 FXXX12 KWNP 080031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 08 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4236 (N09W83, Eai/beta-gamma) produced a C5.6 flare at 07/1129 UTC. An approximate 4 degree filament eruption in the vicinity of plage Region 4233 (N19W73) produced a C9.1 flare at 07/2007 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. Additionally, a type II radio sweep was reported with this event beginning at 07/2007 UTC with an estimated speed of 755 km/s. GOES SUVI 304 imagery suggests the presence of ejecta from this event, however, an Earth-directed component is unlikely given the source region. An additional eruption was noted in the SE near S20E45 at 07/0525 UTC. Modeling of the subsequent CME returned with a miss behind Earths orbit. .Forecast... A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, will persist through 08 Oct. Probabilities undergo a minor decrease on 09-10 Oct as Region 4236 exits the western limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued to reach high levels with a peak flux of 10,500 pfu observed at 07/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the S1 (Minor) threshold over the past 24 hrs. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high levels due to ongoing post high speed stream influences through 08 Oct before returning to moderate levels on 09 Oct. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels through 08 Oct. Probabilities for an event decrease on 09 Oct as active regions exit the western limb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected slightly enhanced conditions likely due to magnetic cloud influences. Total field increased to 10 nT while the Bz component underwent a prolonged southward deflection of -7 to -9 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged near or just under 400 km/s. Phi was in the positive solar sector. .Forecast... Slightly enhanced conditions are expected to continue on 08 Oct due to magnetic cloud influences. Weakening parameters are expected by 09 Oct with a return to a nominal environment anticipated on 10 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated active period. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity will likely reach G1 (Minor) storm levels, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) periods, on 08 Oct due to CME effects. Primarily unsettled conditions are expected on 09 Oct as CME effects slowly wane with quiet conditions prevailing on 10 Oct.